thowed

If you don't mind me asking, why IWM? My guess would be either: a) It's got more low quality companies in it (never understand why S&P600 isn't standard for small-cap). b) Too many hype stocks on other indices that could go up for longer than is rational. c) you think domestic might struggle more than international. Whatever reason, seems entirely reasonable after the first half. Cheers. Incidentally, I'm amused, despite myself, at the troll on the other thread. Though this reflects the novelty of it, due to the overall high quality of people on this board. If it was another forum/twitter etc., half of the people would probably be like that.....

Just to say I'm enjoying this Gregmal/Changegonnacome exchange - I can't say which of you is right, but I know that good stuff comes from a healthy & respectful exchange of different views.

I have been doing Twitter for a bit, and have to stop, because it is so full of idiots. Of course some honourable exceptions like Pupil, BG2008, Bill Wabuffo etc. Particularly excruciating is the 'Macro Trader gang' who have become mini-personalities, and a load of yes-people following their every word. The self-satisfaction is extraordinary. I have found some good stuff on small cos - it's great to expand the field beyond here on e.g. small Oil Royalty cos etc. But like all social media you end up spending too much time on it, being wound up by the idiots, but unable to stop seeing more.

Thanks, Viking, very interesting. Quite extraordinary the changing fortunes of Greece and e.g. the UK since 2011. In particular when one remembers that Greece has had an extreme Far-Left prime minister in the meantime. Perhaps that was necessary to shock people into voting for somebody fairly Centrist and sensible (which I think many other countries could benefit from doing...) though of course it could have had the opposite outcome, which doesn't bear thinking about. Anyway, it was impossible to predict, but a reminder that buying things very cheap when everyone is panicking can work nicely!

@Viking Have you considered Prairie Sky? An HK darling. Doubled their divi this year & still relatively low pay-out so could increase further. Management seem decent (esp. with comparative low bar for Oil Royalty cos......). Not ostensibly cheap, though if oil went up, this might matter less. Of the Oil Royalty cos, personally I like DMLP best in the US (quality management), though for us non-US people, the tax can be a pain, though at double digit yield, it can potentially still work. Thanks for all the FFH stuff, been a huge help in the research.

It depends on your time horizon. If you bought the Nifty Fifty near the top, sure you'd outperform the index over 50 years, but what if you needed to release some cash to buy a house after 10 years? I don't think it would be so pretty. I am all for long-term compounders, but I also think one has to distinguish between theory & reality. Most of us don't live long enough to have the luxury for something to recover from an overvaluation over 20+ years (& there's a whole separate discussion about what human would have the patience to leave it either & believe it would recover).

Did you get inspiration from Chris Mayer - I think it's one of his serial acquirers. It's on my list to look at at some point.

I think where the activism is succeeding is generally where the activists respect the Japanese culture and engage constructively & respectfully. Ideally buy some of the company, turn up to meetings, speak Japanese (or bring a Japanese speaker) and show interest. Then you can suggest changes. And if that doesn't work, then you can get a bit tougher. Anyway, there has certainly been more success recently. Separately, there do seem to be a load of super-cheap, decent quality cos in the Micro, Deep Value space, though no guarantee that they'll re-rate.

Nice on $FRPH. Did I miss anything? Couldn't understand what happened today. I suppose the illiquidity means it doesn't take much.

Thanks! I much prefer a transcript but can't always find them. I still always find him interesting for inspiration - he's rare in having the humility to acknowledge that he doesn't know the answer, but provides interesting ideas to consider.

Of course, Revlon, that's why it's not easy. Though with EL, I think what we're discussing per @Spooky and @dealrakeris stuff that you can hold for decades, things will drift, but the longer-term performance has been pretty decent. The difficulty is having the confidence that management won't screw up like Revlon, & if there is a family input like the Bettancourt's, that generational hand-over works, or they successfully delegate to a Pro. Another method could be - decide on the Sectors you thing have long-term durability & buy Sector ETFs - e.g. Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Tech. (this is not dissimilar to Fundsmith).

Thanks for this.

Yes, thanks for this, & also especially to Viking who has helped me understand Fairfax so much better recently. To ask a stupid question: The average long-term return of their Investment Portfolio is 7.7%. If Book Value has compounded at c.18%, doesn't this indicate they should get out of this & do more of the other stuff? I appreciate their investment style has been 'out of fashion' somewhat since 2009 but this is over 38 years. Thanks.

It's the million dollar question! If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be on this board. If you haven't already, I'd recommend reading the Fundsmith Owner's Manual, which is very good on long-term compounders & the concept of 'don't try to be too clever, stick with the ones that you know have endured. Also the think-pieces on Lindsell Train's website. They both have concentrated buy&hold portfolios of 'boring' compounders, esp. stuff like Pepsi, & McCormick's, Diageo, Brown-Forman. It feels like certain industries are less likely to be disrupted - will women stop using cosmetics? (L'Oreal & Estee Lauder). People will spend money on their health. People will want insurance. Anyway, just some thoughts. And I'm very jealous of your large exposure to Constellation - congrats for that, & I am presuming it's a good place to work too!

I read it a while ago, & don't remember it that well, but I know I enjoyed it. Of course some stuff it's dated, but ultimately I suppose I see it as the roots of the Chuck Akre etc. quality growth philosophy. I suspect it's better than the Chris Mayer book that was inspired by it.

Personally, I have hugely enjoyed some of his blog entries, but found the book disappointing - I didn't find the narrative structure worked for the duration. I appreciate I am in a tiny minority!

Amazing! Thank you.

If you can't access individual stocks, then there are some excellent Indian & Chinese active funds, but the best ones tend to be under the radar. Also I know the UK/European market & have little knowledge about the US mutual fund scene. First Sentier have some US presence, have a ton of experience in China and India, great long-term track records and have an excellent radar for dodgy governance. The flipside is that this quality focus means they tend to underperform in raging bull markets, but then outperform in bear markets. I think China and India are both fascinating and exciting markets to be invested in, but they both have their individual issues.

I'd forgotten about this. I came across this early on in my investment time - fortunately for me I didn't have enough money to go beyond the paywall, as in those days that sort of thing was right up my street. Bears usually sound smarter, but I truly believe optimism is one of the greatest things a person can have. I'd never heard of the Christian Science Monitor - thanks for the tip. The name is rather off-putting, and misleading!

My father did. It was his career, but I don't think everybody in the business did. He researched the Form ferociously with meticulous notes & so was a huge inspiration for me when I turned to the stockmarkets. As well as knowing that they're both industries where you have to accept that the right process won't always produce the right outcome.

Not one size fits all. The above is an example of when it becomes more reasonable to be very concentrated. 'Watch that Basket' etc. But for many of us, if you don't have time to research, or don't already know a company inside-out, then it becomes more problematic to be extremely concentrated. And congrats & thanks @Viking your tales are inspirational & helpful.

This is absolutely true in London. There are a ton of identical terraced houses around - when you find a special property, you're never the only person who knows it, so you have to pay a bit more. But as my grandfather told me, quality holds its value better, especially in bad times, so it's generally worth it for many reasons.

As per a quick glance the latest annual letter, yes, good track record over 5 and 10 years. But I think you have to frame performance of funds like this through the environment of the past 15 years - i.e. the sort of stuff they do wasn't much in favour for a lot of it, but they've caught up a lot in the past 24 months or so.

Japan Small-Cap Value - I think Samarang is best for this. Milestone Japan has a good, experienced manager - I haven't looked at it recently. Vietnam - VEIL.L is the easiest option I think, and for small-caps, AFC Vietnam has very good figures. I struggle with VOF.L. VNH.L has a good team & portfolio, but I think can be too illiquid sadly. Obviously not recommendations.

I think small-cap Japanese value is super cheap & companies are doing well (I invest through a fund). I think Vietnam got unfairly beaten up late last year, & everything is cheap & growing fast. There is often a divergence between large-caps & small-caps - I usually have a bit of both (again through funds). I expect more volatility in 2023, and so use a Macro hedge fund (mainly rates) to exploit this (it's a closed-end feeder, so open to mere mortals like me...).