Gregmal

I think the data skews for some very easy victories for sitting President whether it’s energy prices or just plain CPI bragging which is inevitably going to decline for at least another 12 months consecutively(whether this fits @changegonnacome or Jerry Powell s framework IDK but the decline is inevitable), and I also think they’re going to protect the unemployment rate the best they can. Republicans really don’t have control over that and easy headlines like “falling cpi” and “lowest unemployment rate ever” tend to move needles, the same way largely we have seen CPI work the other way against the market over the trailing 12 months. @changegonnacome all good. It’s both fun and productive, even if sometimes redundant

Lol where is the basis for this claim? I own like 5 real positions most of which either long term holdings or bought last year. Up until maybe a week ago I don’t think I’ve bought a stock since last week of December. Since this time last year I’ve been discussing the arc of this all, from summer peak CPI, to rents/housing lapping in the fall, into the final act which was all the Ukraine war stuff. It’s bizarre to me that as we reach the crescendo, the bears are more bearish than ever. Yet we re at like 3800 spy, and again it just kind of highlights to me why bears never make sustained, long term money. Cuz they never know when to say ok, ‘‘twas a good trade”; they’ve always gotta have this next even crazier chapter where “it just keeps getting worse” and despite the declines there’s always “a lot more to come”. I still remember hearing some guy saying SPY 675 was “maybe 20%” higher than it should be in 2009….if rate driven fears cause some banks to collapse and widespread fear as evidenced by the same VIX action you’ve numerous times said you were waiting to see occurs, what else are we hanging onto? Is it cuz VIX is 30 and not 35? Both are good enough markers for me. Are folks still hanging on 3200? There’s really no value in this market? especially given where and how the story has evolved, right as all the things everyone needs to see to call victory by the fall are here… we re still hanging on?

How is this the case when everything you can spend on is not inflating anymore or even deflating? Is the last bastion of the inflation puzzle really the $18 cheeseburger with a mandatory 25% tip? We’ve had decades of job growth with little to no inflation before.

For instance, didn’t we make a big deal about exactly ONE whole datapoint from January retail spending confirming a looming wage price spiral? Then along comes February data and it’s just ignored lol.

Election cycles when it comes to re election campaigns tend to have positive news flow. Hardly conspiracy there. Off the base of last year and now this, with a few months time the setup looks really good. Still not pound the table territory but getting there. Its crazy to me to still be raging about inflation. This will become evident soon. $66 on oil. If Powell wants to say "more hikes cuz waiters are in demand" soon he won't even have that. Pretty soon even Jay will have no choice but to admit he screwed the pooch sitting here focusing on inflation by focusing on something that has nothing to do with inflation. But its cute how they convinced him jobs = inflation. Will go down as one of the great dupe jobs in history.

Let’s also not forget what starts in a few months and culminates in November 2024….the setup actually seems pretty clear. Not yet, but soon.

Thanks. Don’t think I’d argue too heavily if we wanna use 4-5% right now. Just don’t see anything over and look at oil continuing to be inflationy…but by summer I think it’s a given CPI is sub 4. Possibly even sub 2. Oil halved. Housing stalled. And now everything else detonating. Get the bankers and techies feeling poor for a little while to cool services and it’s game over. Don’t know if it’s today exactly. But we are getting close to the turning point.

Green shoots ah everywhere. Some say fireballs are raining down. Feels more like chillin in a jacuzzi.

@changegonnacomewhat do you really think current inflation is? Like since Spring ‘22. What is the real change? What specifically, in terms of increases, is causing it? I thought it was tomatoes but store brand hasn’t nearly jumped the way Heinz has.

Yea. Just asking if there was a reason cuz I’ve kinda been avoiding a lot of stuff that isn’t well located. Or in other words, I’ve been seeking out stuff with the Southern migration tailwind. Of course, now enter recent bank/tech exposure “potential” headwind, but by all accounts the residential side is far and away a bright spot. Would imagine a recession or economic crunch would only further force people to ditch being charitable to high tax states.

Why? It’s hands down the strongest real estate market in the country and possibly the only one still comping healthily positive. Would you prefer LA or MN or something?

Rachel Dolezal

I think you can hedge that on the other side though. Cuz guess where theres tons of concentration in the office REIT sector? Tech and banks. For instance FRC is a big tenant of ESRT. Overall though I came around a little and started some WFC and TFC today. Think they are OK here, but wouldnt be shocked if prices get cheaper. These banking issues are never one and done.

Maybe late to the party but now you got it! Hey Jay, Ackman says we need 400 bps of hikes by year end to keep credibility! Hey Jay! Klarman thinks short term rates should be a little steeper, still lotta inflation out there! Hey Jay, Pelosi needs a hair appointment and inflation is making booking one tough. To much competition from too many people for too few services! Paul’s been healing so he s not currently in the market so no conflict of interest there! Hey Jay, Einhorn just dropped an email stating that you can’t have sub 2% inflation unless Tesla gets back to 2013 prices! Hey Jay, Thiel wants to have lunch. Said something about lending standards being too loose in Silicon Valley! Gotta get inflation in line. Hey Jay, Corpraider said it’s impossible to solve inflation with the used car index up there, you should probably work on that? This guy think he’s Santa or something?

So you’d agree that short term supply and demand imbalances or interference can create a situation that may not be what it appears? Either way I am bullish long term on oil and besides Short Selling Joe said he’d replenish the SPR at $70 so nice trade Mr President…but I just get a kick out of hearing about all this nonexistent inflation and the one thing that’s known to ooze sensitivity to inflation…oil, year over year is at like $72 from $125….which by itself is quite the confirmation that last years price spike which so many pointed to as proof of the sticky inflation, was also not indicative of reality.

He’s not wrong. This guy Jerry is utterly clueless and looking at data fed to him by people with an agenda. In what world is there still meaningful inflation? Not this one. As Mattee said, stuff is up 20-30% from pre COVID. It’s not coming down barring a disaster. But it’s done going up. Everyone just needs to get with reality and wake the F up. I mean even oil which is like fundamentally built to be ripping into the stratosphere price was…cant. Things are fine and they need to stop fucking with things or it’s gonna be bad for the majority of the country. One day there will actually be a post mortem and it’s gonna go something like “they had the most robust jobs market and economy we d seen in ages and a bunch of academics and hedge fund managers convinced delirious old guys at the federal reserve we were on the verge of hyper inflation so they killed it”.

Yup. Folks are acting like they are getting screwed…and it’s just not true. They have choices. Dealing with inflation even if it’s 5% Isn’t tough.

3% annual raises to account for inflation….with optionality for better work from a once in a lifetime job market….or roulette with your w2 and a scenario where you’d be lucky to land a rebound job? There’s 2% difference there maybe….and that s a big maybe because again…what’s currently inflating? If currently and going forward we have negligible inflation, then Jerry is making a massive mistake charging ahead with the tough guy routine regarding jobs. Today, right now, that inflation outlook to me seems way more realistic than the one where people just shout the cpi figure and demand action. We saw what the job market looked like at 5% unemployment, and it was nothing like it is today. I’d honestly be shocked if we ever see a job market as robust as it’s been the last 2 years again.

But hey, it’s easier for the C-suite to budget on an annual basis when multiplier is sub 1.05 LOL

All I can say is that we talk about this greater benevolence to the current scheme being perpetuated…but who’s collecting more interest? Who’s buying houses? Who’s having the debate about stocks vs bonds. Who’s waiting to “take advantage of the situation”? The logic is that 5% is totally unacceptable even though most wouldn’t be able to tell you the difference between 3 or 5 even if it was in their daily lives. Case in point is the people today still talking about energy prices. The low and middle income people today have a job market I couldn’t have imagined in my wildest dreams. It’s truly spectacular and guess who hired Jerry Powell to change that?

-Raise to about 4-5% and hold. Especially in the absence of ANY real, current inflation of any substance. -Eliminate this tunnel vision obsession with killing jobs. -Stop acting like people who went a decade plus without material wage increases or job leverage now are the problem. IE if I say you will be safer if you avoid people in low income neighborhoods wearing hoodies past midnight you can all read between the lines in reference to what Im saying...but this guy keeps talking about services inflation and its like oh he just wants equilibrium LOL gtfoh -Quit brandishing you obviously incorrect and useless "projections" as if theyre data dependent when clearly they are not(otherwise why, with a major decline in reported inflation and absence of real current inflation, are we still talking tough about more rate hikes?) -wait and see?!?! This is the biggest one. You admit theres lags to all this....and then act like theyre supposed to work instantaneously? -Use IDK one of the thousands of economists at your disposal to figure out that forcing banks to hold the same sort of securities youre now purposely devaluing may at some point create problems?

Ok so then where are we even seeing 5% inflation currently? Oil prices? Housing? Commodities? People are still chasing 2021 and early 2022s ghosts. Grocery prices is the best shot and that by itself doesnt do it. Theres literally no sign of this going on anywhere which is why maybe folks started harping on used car prices getting a modest y/y bounce recently?

Thanks. Guess it’s just differentiating things open to interpretation. If the goal is to utilize a mechanism that by his own admission, takes 12-18 months to work…it’s pretty darn useless to sit here today and give a speech, and then a week later respond to the next data batch with “it’s not happening fast enough”…like was he expecting 9% to 2% in 4 months? Even if that happened, it just wouldn’t show in the data cuz that’s not how it’s tabulated. @Castanzas cake analogy is perfect… The other issue is the dude is claiming he s fighting inflation, except he s not even following it. He’s been hypnotized by a certain crowd to now redefine inflation as “anything that’s doing ok” and currently focused on jobs. If you ask him where the inflation currently is, I am not sure he could even come up with a valid answer…same goes for the “persistent and sticky” inflation crowd. Where is it currently? If you further eliminated everyone who sat around last year saying higher for longer because of “Ukraine, supply chain, and companies playing games with pricing” who now all of a sudden switched to “jobs and wages”….there’s virtually no case left to be made. It’s obvious, so obvious that even Elizabeth Warren can see it, that the cause of the inflation was almost entirely tied to those things. And those things don’t get solved by extreme rate hikes, or taking away people’s jobs, they get solved with TIME, and it’s happens almost exactly as it’s been happening since the summer. It’s accelerating here into fall ‘23, all you have to do is wait for it. If he wanted to make the argument some are making, that inflation is 4% and it should be 2%…fine, but again, you think that’s going to be something discernible from that data this week? Lol like wtf? And either way, the solution for THAT, isn’t jacking rates up to 6/7. This guy is literally drunk on attention and hypnotized by academics and hopefully it doesn’t hurt too many people. Schmuck banks failing is fine. Rich tech bros having to get real jobs is fine. Bitching about jobs and wages cuz blue collar folks are finally having some success getting paid…fuck him. Or cuz it costs to much to eat out….dine at home Jerry. Eating at a restaurant ain’t a god given right. We don’t need 6% rates so that you and your pals are the only ones who can afford to make a reservation.

3% position between TFC and WFC

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/stress-like-1987-evercore-warns-svb-fallout-will-force-new-market-low.html Another wizard with his super scary prognostications yet a year end target over 4000…. So, are these low 3000 price forecasts just 1) blip on the intraday target? 2) Fair values? 3) buy points? Because if they’re 1 or 3 then 3500 is probably more reasonable and that’s like 10% from here so who cares? If it’s 2) then there’s probably still a whole lotta stuff thats gotta happen that folks ain’t telling us. Nevertheless I find the prognostications entertaining.