Gregmal

The point in time you are using is right before what can conveniently at its simplest be described as a regular old run of the mill correction. Inflation didn’t start in Q4 2021, not even close. @changegonnacome and I had this discussion pretty thoroughly throughout the fall of 2021-2023. Q4 2021s start point ignores the inflation that started emerging in q3 2020 and ignores most of the stock gains that were induced by…inflation. So yea, if we pick the hind sight chart “top” ignore all the gains that came before then, pretend that the trailing “inflation” only “started” then…and then adjust for other stuff, the returns….blah, blah, blah.

All I know is you’ve gone to incredibly great lengths over the last few years to make this case, using rather thin arguments that no one else really attempts to make, and need to go to great lengths picking start dates and modifying/adjusting numbers to do so, and I’m perplexed as to why this is such a strong personal thing for you? For example above, if we get “multiple expansion” you state, but even in to the bottoms in 2022 you predicted multiple contraction. Pretty much the whole way thru 2023/4 as well. Or if we switch out the chart and compare specific indexes to gold…. but why stop there? Why not just pick anything that’s done well or poorly that suits an argument? Or “if we eliminate the things that have done well”, or “there’s a lot that’s underperformed”….Or the I traded “abc and xyz” but if the argument devolves into purported short term speculating on individual securities, does anything more macro even matter at all? I mean at best the above amalgamation is basically a modern day “if you bought Microsoft or Cisco at the top of the tech. Bubble in 99…..” argument, one I’ve often found bizarrely bullish because rephrasing it, it’s basically stating “if you try your best to pick the worst times to invest, this is how arcane you need to get on a historical basis for it not to work”. And even then, it’s easily, easily mitigated by basic DCA approaches.

Checks notes, SPY late 2021…4700, SPY late 2022…4000. Yup “that not an inflation hedge” argument, even when monumentally cherry picked on the timeline side….still just as wrong as it was 3-4 years ago. Why do we want so badly for it to be true?

I thought trickle down economics was when people like Doug Diligence lecture illegals while they’re trying to make a living after cutting his own lawn to save $100 rather than throw said desperados a bone of gratitude?

Nope. The reason is that largely the TAFFI crowd obsessively nitpicks every stupid little word and digresses into pointless TDS gotcha seeking debates. Ive never said the US was getting "taken advantage of by the UK"....DYW meanwhile "keeps asking" and frankly I dont know why it's so relevant to his life but it's not to mine. Largely, Trump wants an excuse to extract more revenue from everyone, as Ive said before...so you and he are free to keep asking all these dumb gotchas Trump seeking questions....I dont care, Ill just laugh knowing this is why you guys are just constantly on the wrong end of these things. The deranged rabbit holes are all yours. Who the biggest trading partner is or the degree to which the UK is "taking advantage of the US" is almost entirely meaningless to the macro and the variables at play....but as they say, play stupid games, win stupid prized...you guys and your games...

Pretty much anything not authenticated will get valued as if it’s fake. That’s just the way it works. If you’re gonna do partials then do the biggest ticket ones first. Pretty sure they do offer bulk discounts. Also it’s cheaper if you don’t need them back urgently. For instance a non authenticated Babe Ruth might go for $100. Authenticated is $5000-10,000 on the absolute cheapest end. Perhaps a fun exercise in terms of creating value would be to set small amounts of time aside to research each auto and find the ones with the most value. Authenticating is pretty straight line in terms of cost. So $50 or $100 definitely goes further if you’re authenticating a JFK vs a Joe Biden.

Should start a list called “sorry, not allowed to discuss Trump because your input on the subject is worthless and predictions always turn out to be the exact opposite of what happens”

TDS is eating their brains. So amusing to watch this unfold.

Exactly, a side product of the tariffs is they back people into buying American made products, which has its own economic theory behind it. Another element is yes, in some cases, somewhat higher prices; the least painful trade off in the whole balancing act equation that is a whole lot more presentable and allowable than austerity or sweeping tax hikes. No perfect solutions, but for Americans? The most reasonable path suggested so far. For everyone else? Dunno. But still waiting on all these other countries to follow thru on all their “we won’t take it” flexing. Wasn’t Canada gonna shut down a pipeline or something?

lol yea, so dumb. Tariffs just make a specific companies product more expensive(penalizing the company, not the consuner). The “consumer” doesn’t pay anything they don’t want to. If a pound of chicken is $6 and I want it, I buy it. If Tysons prices rise $2/lb(not really that uncommon) I just buy a different brand. Same is true for everything else all the way up to cars. This is why the whinny babies keep missing everything. Boo hoo wah wah emotion!

Just caught up here and this is the best advice. Regardless of what you want or intend to do with it, get COAs from PSA or Steiner(only use the big boy authenticators). End of the day if they have expert certificates vouching for authenticity you’ve got a nice asset. If you don’t, they’re gonna be pretty close to worthless and it’s even more perilous if the next person tasked with handling them knows even less about them.

The only answer to the big fiscal problems is running inflation a little higher than normal. I don’t think the higher ups are oblivious to this and to a degree it’s engineered imo. All around it seems like a better alternative to austerity or large scale tax hikes.

The best part, is its as if they get hit daily with the Men In Black "Neuralyzer"; tomorrow they'll wake up doubling and tripling down on this hilarious obsession, oblivious to their pathetic track record of failed predictions, and make fools of themselves once again. But, yea, your paragraph 10000% hits the TDS nail on the head with respect to all those issues. These people are negatives to America.

Both sides just confirmed a deal and like you have pretty much every other time, you’re claiming it’s fake. Please continue, though, it’s beyond hilarious at this point, the predictable rhetoric. Pure gold.

Yea, it’s all fake, obviously. Just like the Iran ceasefire…Keep going!

Just wait tho, we ll either get the “it’s not real” conspiracy theory stuff, or the Tommy Lee Jones, Men In Black, red memory flash penny thingy, where tomorrow they’ll swallow the next MSM fed talking point and draw these same type of forecasts, completely oblivious and unaware to the fact that their embarrassing batting average is like .155….

lol aaaaaand, they’re wrong again. The amazing predictive powers of the TDS crowd strike again!

I actually think it’s pretty cunning. Citing the past inflation Powell missed as the reason to potentially fire him now because he wants to hold his error against the country fighting inflation that doesn’t currently exist? Brilliant. I mean look at all the hoops and bs we ve been subjected to the last several years. Any uptick in anything is cited as bad. Wage increases painted as bad. They ignore the steady downward movement in oil but scream inflation with every minor fluctuation upwards. Job gains are presented as bad news…they lied about tariffs and now tax cuts…what in the fuck is wrong with this group and specifically Jerry Powell for playing their game?

Need to see if maybe Sanjeev can work on getting a community wide access portal to Bravo on Demand or maybe make the membership come with free gossip mag subs….would add a lot of value for these folks.

Nice. So we ve already launched into fullblown "if we dont get the info we need to get him, it's because of a conspiracy" mode. Hopefully one day they "get him", so you guys can have some peace.

Nah, the lemmings are above that....LMFAO

Kinda both. Been in the process of relocating and also doing summer things. Still checking in periodically; and obviously nothing missed on this thread. Still same old bullshit, just change the monthly MSM hot topic.

It’s like when these tools protested in congress because they weren’t being given access to “alligator Alcatraz”..and the reason was simple, because they’re losers and we all know their preset objective regardless of what it “actually looked like” was to go in there and undermine it. Absolutely nothing else but that. So everyone knew their game and basically just said “fuck you, no”…it’s the same with this. These liars claiming to “just want to know the truth”….any show of hands how many people believe that, let’s say Trumps not implicated in anything, that these clowns will change their opinion of him?? LOL of course not. Then two days later when the media puts out the next “walls are closing in on Trump” story these bums will snap harder than a starved bass passing a fat Canadian nightcrawler….They’re just deranged chasing the media released fumes of another promised “got Trump”…so no need to engage or take them serious, they deserve nothing except maybe a fuck you

Yup, and that’s where the truth lies, similar spot as always. At first all this was fun, the quarreling and partisan back and forth, then it became hilarious, now they’re just pathetic; the degree to which they embarrass themselves with the derangement fueled stupidity, a mockery of intelligence really. It’s heart wrenching for all the people whom voted for Trump almost exclusively because the release of the Epstein files was the most important issue on the ballot, to them….but even there, is supermarket tabloid gossip level importance stuff at best; I voted for Trump in 2016 because he promised tax cuts and he raised my taxes….im not a little bitch though and I got over it, I’m sure the people whom voted this past election heavily influenced by the gossip files being released will get over it just the same…but maybe I’ll shed a tear for them anyway. But….oh wait, no….this agin, isn’t actually stemming from people whom voted for Trump based on their desire for the files release…it is largely fueled by red eyed whiny TDS losers, drunk on the latest media feed, whom believed every story from Russia to tariffs and quite literally everything else in between. Remember the gold standard journalists and media companies make decisions based on hundreds of millions being on the line, thus they have no incentive to print anything but facts(LMFAO), but now some stale hack like Colbert being canned is proof we ve moved towards a fascist dictator led regime. And in between these blowhards whose yappers were firmly sealed when the previous admins DOJ had these same Epstein files(yup, not one word from them!), now! feeling that elusive “gotcha Trump” is just around the corner yet again…demand the release and even claim entitled to it because “he promised when he ran”…well guess what, you didn’t vote for him so fuck off lol. They deserve at best nothing.

https://nypost.com/2025/07/05/opinion/how-americas-experts-burned-their-last-shreds-of-credibility/ Saw this and couldn't help but think it isn't just the experts, but many all around, including those here. Particularly here, how pre Iran bombing it was "headed for 2003s WMDs", whereas post bombing we warp speeded to "didn't destroy anything" and "their bomb making capabilities actually accelerated" LMFAO. Also had that "Iran/Israel ceasefire is fake" TDS showing for a bit too. Good times. Anyway, its also telling, per the exchange between @73 Reds and @changegonnacome...I mean, these "Experts" whom over the last decade have something like an 85% hit rate in terms of being wrong about pretty much anything Trump related, keep churning out new flavor of the month "news" stories. And in an odd respect, change wants to know if and when the 15% success rate plays out, will @73 Reds or @cubsfan eat a can of crow; the more relevant and obvious question should really be, how many of these stories do you folks whom always fall for it(the TAFFI crowd) need to gulp down, before maybe you cease swallowing them hook, line, and sinker? Have a nice day.