Gregmal

I can’t wait to see the eventual blowing up of the US collegiate/academic bubble world. It’s a racist, indoctrination driven world of excess and unaccountable creeps. It’s funded by government spending and bs student loans that make the GFC subprime stuff look tame. These folks parade around doing little actual work, many teaching a few hours a day at best and then lounging, mingling with young kids, and pursuing hobbies, while making salaries deep into the 6 figures with golden benefit packages. It’s despicable and the only thing worse is how often the good teachers simply end up average Joes because they choose not the have fun in the deviant carnival system that exists.

Yea I have some money in a private company Emulate Bio which is literally merging human and computers in a way to speed up drug discovery. This shit is getting wild.

Yea Im semi allergic to the large caps but still hold out hope Ill find a decent one soon. Cant Costco just go to $350 already?

Welcome to the club. I’ve been toggling with attempting to determine whether I’m just really lazy or simply not finding anything but for the past couple months I haven’t really found much worth doing. Your bonds are my INDT, MANU and RFPs. Today threw some ATVI on the list. But generally speaking, pretty bored right now.

Ok, but why is it sanguine? The markets literally haven’t gone anywhere. We ve basically just been stuck around 3900-4000 give or take for months despite all the screaming. It’s one thing to say “I don’t think there’s much upside” or that we are stuck, but the entitlement around demanding things trade lower seems to be a bizarre consensus amongst most who care to share their opinion on TV and whatnot.

Ok, asterisk. Guys who trade bonds that behave like stocks have gotten rich lol

The inflation cost issues are gonna swing back the other way at some point, and then margins across the board get a boost again. This is true for pretty much every company with any sort of structural market advantage.

Totally lol. 4% on your cash is everywhere I look. Which I guess makes sense. It’s like waiving pussy at a computer nerd who just left college and got his first job at Google. Little does he know, that in 5 years he ll realize it ain’t nothing special despite the fact that he was deprived of it for so much of his life.

I have almost entirely stopped following the majority of stuff I once did. Overtime I’ve also kinda found it productive to eliminate people or sources that check the box of “trying to sell you something”…a factor that almost always leads to dishonesty….which given the cesspool of WS lives off that, further reduces the stuff I find valuable. Have never had a Twitter and even when I stumble across a good account, I forget it within a few days or so. Agree with others, wabuffo is a total gift and literally the only account I make a point to check out here and there. Otherwise I pay others to sift through all the sewers for any relevant investment related stuff and even there, the yields are often low. If I had to make a list of folks who are worthwhile, not total career advancing attention whores, not trying to pump their book, not trying to sell me something, and really just don’t have an agenda period other than to genuinely discuss good investments, this place takes the cake for me. Weirdly enough I’ve found so much value speaking with individual people with skin in the game, who invest their own money even if they are not household names or openly promotional. There’s like a silent army of St Joe shareholders I speak to regularly and it’s awesome. Same with MSG. People who’d never post anywhere but reach out via email or DM. Random, normal folks just looking to chat stocks and knowledgeable enough to be valuable in an exchange of ideas. I’d encourage folks to make contacts like this especially at annual meetings and investor events. I guess I’m just a fan of normal people LOL. Otherwise, I used to really enjoy Nat Stewart on Seeking Alpha but I think he stopped writing. Dude just got the entire equation when it came to investing. Kuppy is such a good down to earth dude who gives no fucks about all the usual nonsense. BG2008 is like the most honest, non salesman fund guy I’ve talked to, so I enjoy the fund letters out of his shop, and as mentioned above, from someone who gives zero shits about the macro junk, I still find @wabuffoto be a treasure.

~8%

Almost exactly when he should have been using it! Otherwise, jokingly, I think it also helps to have a super cash fund where you can be 70% in cash, have 30% market exposure to stuff that returns 15-20% and then end up +30% on the whole enchilada every year. Both RBC and Axos are getting back to me on where to find this sort of financial product.

Nintendo

Yea I personally think the tax rate on income under $50k should be 0. Then cut some of the social welfare stuff. What benefit is there to making people earning so little worry about taxes?

I also recall hearing, I think here, in June or July…about how “the estimates” were way too high at 250 EPS. Then I thought, what kind of jabroni gives two hoots about what some pindick in a cubicle writing book reports thinks? Or predicates investment decisions on them? Now I’m thinking…what a prescient call about declining analyst forecast back in June/July…what was SPY trading at then? Looks like that whole approach paid off…not.

Dont even get me started. Every year I come back from my winter exodus to Florida and you start entering certain states and its glaring. A few miles of highway work shouldn't take half a decade. Meanwhile every 3-6 months I visit down South and new roads and buildings are up and running. Funded by 0% state income taxes as well.

Elon Musk showed everyone what productivity is at Twitter. Imagine what’s possible at the government level?

Think by summer we are easily below that and ultimately sub 5%(I won’t argue over tenths of a point) is fine as are 4-5% rates. That’s probably overall pretty good and healthy longer term. I just want consistency from the bear camp though. They’re so full of it. We ve already seen more than I care for in 2023. Energy prices are gonna be a problem they say. Energy falls..ignore it and move on the used car prices after previously abandoning that argument last time they cratered. Then ignore new car production and sales while simultaneously declaring it proof of a slowdown. Claim the consumer is tapped out. Then point to rabid consumer spending and demand hikes cuz the economy is too hot. While claiming all spending is simply cuz of credit cards. At least be consistent!

Change the case rests on monthly .2s, .4s, .6s….which have always bounced around and now do so more than ever.

Totally. It’s nuanced and divided much like the blue collar vs white collar dynamic in the labor market. At the same time, there’s the noise. Todays spending was another indicator of consumer strength. What do they do? Scream for more destructive hikes or blame credit cards endlessly. The South is too robust…wage price spiral! Ignore the deflation elsewhere. Oh but energy will be a problem! Energy falls…back to touting used car prices. The only way to win this game is just to ignore the noise and focus on individual fundamentals. The ironic part in all of this…like 90% of my friends and contacts who are vividly in the bear camp…didn’t even make money last year and got ripped in q1 so far. Sometime just sticking to your preferred knitting is best. The inflation/recession/economy too strong game is just a self serving shit show for the people selling it.

Is it odd to anyone else how oil prices keep getting whacked on reports indicating consumer strength?

Powell is basically the new Fauci. Like we get it bro, you enjoyed the spotlight, but the gig has run its course, move on. Please stop lingering around trying to scrape together more reasons to be relevant. Meanwhile the bear camp keeps doing its thing. One side of the mouth “OMG inflation is rearing its ugly head again, used car sales ticked up. Economy running too hot. Must. Raise. Rates. More!” Other side of the mouth? “Oh look, GM idling plants because of plummeting demand. I knew the economy was deteriorating!”

Nice. So now wage price spiral has devolved into “wage price spiral in specific markets”. Dem goalposts keep moving for Mr Powell annd co. Also easily explained by migration rather than some all else equal theory, and fully supported by economic growth in those regions. There really isn’t much of a reason for the pre COVID gaps between pay/prices in Atlanta or Miami vs coastal anymore.

Yea I guess. It’s unfortunate but reality.

@thepupil lol I’m doing it somewhat tongue in cheek, but now that we can agree the “market” is a world index, now I know what chart and PE I should be looking at to determine whether it’s a good time to buy individual stocks for the next couple quarters!

I chuckled at the Chinese response to the US in regards to aiding Russia. I guess the US is the only one who gets to takes sides and then meddle in it? If we are playing this stupid game then so will others. In other words, as long as the meddling continues, so will the war.