Gregmal

Yea the only way gold makes sense is as a timing trade and using futures options lol. Its worthless.

Exactly and if nothing else continued poor execution enhances the odds of favorable actions being taken

I just think it’s a waste of time even getting caught up in a lot of this. Ya know the “it’s not ROL”…duh…ROL trades at 50x this trades at 15x. “Management hasn’t executed”…duh, it shows and that’s why an activist is in here. “The business is based on roll ups”…duh, but the future doesn’t have to be. Like these are all waste of breath arguments at the current valuation with the potential catalyst backdrop. It’s like arguing about growth and asset sales and terminal valuations on eBay last year. Who cares. All else equal you’re not gonna lose your shirt and you’ve got some interesting upside optionality. Just hang around for a bit and see where it goes.

Yea the hot takes are generally and directionally wrong. It’s a case of a tremendous business, thats being poorly managed with awful integration of a large merger. With the merger integration past the halfway point, a credible activist present, and time on your side, that’s the trade. Nothing to marry or get too into the weeds over.

Per common sense, they were never going to be 5%+ long term either, its just some people couldn't get away from the conspiracy theorists on X(formerly known as Twitter) and missed a very obvious and easy to put on trade.

Think JNJ suffer from lack of sales to Diddy? Lol

Yea Kamala is married to a Jew and otherwise nothing I’ve seen from her is antisemitic. Biden is part of the pro Israel old school faction of the party. It’s more the newer and younger democrats that are really bigoted.

Yup this is where the usual clowns come in and spin the cut as "thats because they see bad things on the horizon" or some variant of the usual "everything is a big deal" nonsense.

No idea. Net debt to EV is of zero concern to me here.

Yea the valuation is rather stupid to me. The balance sheet is great. Profitability is unquestionable. Just really a matter of when with the Terminex integration. No shortage of acquirers for it as well. Just seems like a case where people are short term and impatient.

What’s wrong with that? It’s a product of float. Which is one of the more desirable aspects of the business

ABNB and RTO

Post GFC you can’t really get your name on a property unless you can really demonstrate being able to afford it. Any idiot can get approved for a car loan. That’s the difference. So many poor or imagine sensitive people and frauds driving around in cars they can’t afford. I don’t know anyone who’s in a house they can’t afford.

Yea just another chump trying to lie and mislead everyone into paying for his subscription service. Lemme guess, every week we have another datapoint or economic release that could change everything? We re always just one step away from the edge of the cliff? Consensus isn’t actually correct but rather something totally random and conspiracy based is what everyone else is missing? And of course you need his wisdom in order to take advantage of these ever present monumental events via life changing options strategies or day trades? These jokers are all the same.

I think this is a bad attitude to have as it’s clearly selling yourself short. You’re smart, you can learn just about anything. It doesn’t cost much to start or take a stab at running your own business. Which sounds risky and intimidating but that’s just a mindset thing. Tons of stupid people make decent livings running their own businesses. Why couldn’t someone smarter? And yea, go boat lol. Best part of recessions is you can buy expensive depreciating shit for not much cuz everyone else already lost their shirts.

100%! I don’t get the mentality. It’s outrageously stupid everywhere but in the textbook which is written to shackle folks to their day jobs. Today my wife and kids are young and full of life. We get so much out of doing things together and enjoying life as a family. I wouldn’t trade one year of freedom now for 5 years or freedom 30 years from now. When the wife is…old. Kids are grown up and spend 90-95% of their time away from me living their own lives….this assuming all of us are still alive which sadly isn’t a given. WTF are people thinking lol

I would add though I have a smidge of ATT along with stuff like my Pupilbonds. T seems like just a really easy way to ride the next wave. What V, ARE, GOOG, COST, etc were during the previous decade of more or less 3 or lower interest rates, I think the stuff like T and general gist of @BG2008s topic idea here, is what is gonna rock out and be your marginable money makers for the next 3-5 years at least. Also maybe fitting this is WEN which I bought recently as well.

Joe, msg (e+s), Nintendo, Fairfax, aiv and FRPH Im not worth paying attention to anymore lol. I just sit on my ass and buy dips versus a lot of the stuff I used to do.

Wish I could be a helpful participant here but I’m still just rolling with the same 5/6 I’ve been riding with for years now. I really haven’t found too much by the way of new ideas recently, although it’s likely cuz I haven’t been looking very hard.

Yea but he’s got rich parents and is friends with bill Ackman and David Einhorn and does humanitarian work so excuse his blatant lies and promotional bs

You obviously become a better investor when you go full time because you are fully responsible for the successes and failures and at some point if you are good you get it and if you aren’t you are forced to pull the plug and face the music.

A couple more of these days and we can start expecting heightened activity on this thread with copious boasts of “knowing the market had gotten pricey” and “the bubble is popping” and how “cash and fixed income are outperforming”…oh I’m so looking forward to it.

Couple things. It’s not expensive, at all, and it’s basically a duopoly. I also have a friend who was basically as high up on the food chain of the other pest control company as you can get who has hammered into my head that “pest control is a hell of a business”. Third, merger integration is always a timing gamble, but eventually someone fixes it in instances like this. So it was a number of things, coming together, at a time when everyone tried convincing themselves 5% CDs were better alternatives than equities at 20-25x, and I just couldn’t see how ROL could be such a great biz at 40x but RTO wasn’t worth 15x, and that’s kinda the gist. If it lingers at the current valuation long enough it will be taken out; almost with certainty.

Stupid real estate investors...these are just a bet on lower rates! Stupid David Tepper, going balls to the wall long financials in 2009 is just a bet on a bailout. Smart real estate investors, just like Mr. Tepper, you're just betting that the Fed will do exactly what they already told you theyre doing. Its easy money? Thats smart money versus dumb money for you!

Anyhow, went through the ytd blotters cuz I really havent bought much this year and the only sizable buys recently were RTO around 27 which was by far the biggest new position and then adding to existing Fairfax around 1060. Been a boring but productive year so far.