Gregmal

We ve had people fixating on every little datapoint imaginable to justify recessions and reasons to be pessimistic for years. The yield curve is just one of many of those datapoints. This just fundamentally misses the point of investing. Imagine Buffett dumping Apple on every China scare or monthly economic print below expectations since 2016?

Yea I feel like you have to be an idiot to short something that already has 10%+ short interest. On top of having to be a scumbag to short something at all in the first place. No sympathy here.

I think the real nut jobs here are the fools who are again shorting this stuff? Why in the world is there 25% short interest on GME? Just greedy nerds trying to capitalize on the hardships of others. Let em burn.

All recession forecasts take time. The key is to just be a broken record and eventually you get to say I knew it

Its a pretty simple thesis. Its a mediocre version of Rollins. Great business thats got a lot of room to improve operationally. Thinks its bound to either get it together or likely gets bought, probably by Rollins.

Been buying a good chunk of RTO this week.

LOL yea almost certainly.

Yea my wife and I were 100% content with 2. Third was not expected but happened. Wouldnt change it for the world but does kinda delay the whole getting your life back to normal phase. Basically the 9 months before and after birth the wife is a nut job, and then til the kid is 2 years old or so theyre totally helpless and time consuming. So its a lot of sacrifice. Mine are 3/5/7 now and life is good.

He once told us he is retired and was previously the CFO of a major public company lol But I agree. He once said something about San Francisco mooning and I had no idea what that even meant and only after google helped was I able to determine it’s a slang term used by 15 year olds

Yea I don’t get the hostility. If you don’t like something just don’t pay it any attention lol

Yea that was one of the most bizarre exchanges Ive had with anyone. Guy tells us all we're idiots because we dont understand the future of investing. Says housing is going to crash big time. Says his top positions were Moderna and Tesla in late Q4 2021. Disappears for 2 years. Then comes back claiming he's been in cash and Im a San Fransisco real estate bull, which, out of all the things Ive ever been accused of, is probably the most headscratching LOL.

Perhaps part of the reason volatility has been lower now for years, and multiples higher than normal, is that the market has gotten more efficient as people finally start realizing stocks are by far the most superior long term home for cash. This sort of phenomena happens all the time. I recall in 2012 how everyone insisted the market was overvalued because “it should trade at 14x”. When asked why, answer was always “that’s the historical average”…then you just shake your head and reply “good luck with that”.

No ones getting to retirement on 5% returns. So if thats the game plan, one needs to really start increasing the amount of money being socked away cuz you sure aint growing the pile very fast at that rate.

Bottom line is if you’re considering 4-5% on fixed income attractive, you’re better off just putting in more time at the 9-5.

Biggest problem younger investors have is they study the typical books everyone reads and then try to find ways to fit current investments into those boxes. A dynamic market will often rhyme but rarely repeat and trends they wrote the books based on are often no longer relevant. That’s why all those high FCF yield companies tend to be value traps with declining revenues and huge debts but the value boys still love em.

Perhaps not everything is “expensive” but rather people need to adjust their view of what qualifies as “expensive”. I’ve been hearing “mother of all bubbles” talk since literally 2010. During which period I’ve made a fortune owning assets and those same people are still largely singing the same tunes about bubbles and expensive and how everyone needs to own gold. If you walk into a store and conclude that “everything is expensive” you need to base it on the fact that you can go down the street and get the same items significantly cheaper. If you can’t find a store anywhere around you that’s cheaper, then no, the store is not expensive, you just don’t know what the market is. Saying it’s expensive because in the past it was cheaper is just dumb.

Well said. I sympathize with both. And I’m tired of our scumbag politicians monetizing stuff like this.

To your credit man, you don’t look a day older than 50 so whatever you’re doing is clearly working!

Think it’s just getting a feel for stuff. For instance pretty early on I was able to see that almost every time I looked at an investment from purely a valuation standpoint my conclusion was proven wrong. So I stopped doing it and the end result improved drastically. Conclusion was easy. There’s was more to investing than just textbook taught valuation approach. Overtime you just see certain behaviors are cyclical and conditioned so you can immediately thrown them in certain buckets as far as categorizing your inputs. For instance in 2021 it was pretty common to hear people lamenting “you just can’t short this market”, which pretty much is always a sign you wanna short the market lol. This kinda stuff just requires experience more so than high level analytics.

I’ve always viewed it in phases. 15-30 give or take was about pure hedonism with financial independence underlying the motives on the back end of that stretch. I definitely aced those objectives. 30-55 or whatever is purely about being the best parent possible for my kids. Doing well on that front, so far. 55+ I have always kind of valued way less than the first two phases. I’m honestly not even sure what I’d want for myself outside of lower quality experiences I had in the first two phases. Maybe that changes, idk.

Avoid them, ignore them, or if confident enough, take the other side of them. Most obvious example is related to stuff that looks “expensive”. If I’m looking at something and see the PE I can just laugh and go “nice Greg. Excellent proprietary work there. Definitely arriving at a different conclusion than every other jerk off with screen access!”. At which point I’ll look for other more unique analytical angles, or simply move on. Overall biases are an asset because you know this is often prevailing sentiment and if you can manipulate that you’re already going against the consensus

There’s correlation. People who work too much and are frugal for some far down the line purpose are often not maximizing the quality of life aspect. I’d much rather be 30 and on the more liberal side of spending and experiencing life than 50 with financial freedom but a tedious previous 30 years of existence

Nope. Happiness IMO at 27 is worth multiples more than at 77. For one, when you’re 27, 77 is not guaranteed. 2, your physical capabilities at 27 easily allow for higher quality engagement than at 77. Three, the opportunity set at 27 is far greater. Four, you have plenty of time to earn the money back. Think about anything worth doing. Sports, partying, fucking, crazy trips with friends and family. No way in hell 77 is the same as 27 with regards to the quality of any of those activities. People need to have balance but skew their resources to where they are in life and appreciate both the opportunities and the limitations.

Just flip em into the election. Easy trade.

When everything is on the line, people hustle. Today’s generation is simply too comfortable. The only reason I became worth anything is because coming out of school I had nothing and no safety net so working the way I did, and doing the things I did to my body to make it happen were fair trade offs. Say 100 hour 5-6 day work weeks with a 90 minute daily commute to most people and it’s a hard pass. For me it changed my life.