Gregmal

Yea IB is awful with this. Generally though it’s based on market cap, sector and historical volatility.

Every time the market dips 5-10% there’s this huge wave of people who have to manufacture some sort of macro reason for it. Often there’s none. It’s just the market doing market things.

Exactly, the thing is, you can start putting that trade on 20% above where you’d ideally want to put it on because 9/10 the big swing opp never arrives or by the time it does everyone’s mentally shot.

There is also the fact that most people aren’t long term enough, or mentally capable enough to realize 25-30x with a growth runway isn’t expensive, and then even those that might be, are terrified of “what might happen” NTM or whatever. If I find a great idea at 25-30x and “something bad happens” assuming my thesis was correct in the first place, I’ve got a generational idea I can back up the truck on. Why be scared of that?

It’s highly specific to individual names because of fundamental reasons but you monitor the trade based on VIX levels. Something that’s “insert discretion” reasonable valued, giving you a 35-50 VIX type premium on 10-20% OTM puts with less than 6 months duration should make money if nothing happens, or even with modest future declines, simply once VIX settles to more normalized levels. Ie like 20

Its just a regularly trite market commentary I hear and have heard forever. Nothing is cheap. Ok BF or Diego is 15x... Yea but no growth. Ok well you said high quality, not growth, He's a solid growth Co at 25-30x Oh but 25-30x is "expensive".... Ok well here's one at 20x.. Oh its got debt.... And even if all that passes, you'll get the "and we're headed for a recession and profits will get cut by xyz%"... Most people just nitpick and want the perfect investment for way less than they normally are available for and lament not being able to get them when they've never under normal circumstances been able to get them for those multiples. Nintendo is as high quality as it gets....Fairfax and BRK are both superbly positioned. I could go on and on, but theres always a catch or an issue. I just like to buy quality stuff at reasonable prices and I havent even been trying to look for investments the last few years and had no problem finding stuff.

Sure there is. Its just when we take 50 different fabricated adjustments and then claim "in a recession" XYZ will happen...sure, nothing "looks cheap". In the real world though theres plenty.

VIX over 35 is a slam dunk buy signal. Especially when the opportunity is created by some Twitter mouth breathers who are showcasing that theyre the only people on WS who are actually stuck in the office in early August. Ive never even come close to losing money shorting 10% OTM near-mid duration puts on blue chips with the VIX at those levels.

There’s always reasons to be scared and generally, most people think stocks are expensive regardless of the price. All this is really just the product of most market participants being scared of volatility and even the professionals being total slaves to the daily quotes. No one worth a damn is even paying attention to the market in July, August anyway.

The problem is what we've said all along. The Fed is clueless, and relies on backward looking stuff like CPI and derivatives. They totally misread inflation. They were clueless about how it was almost all supply chain and covid lockdown related, and even when we arguably had deflation, they look at housing being elevated without even realizes THEY were the cause of that while everything else fell apart. Powell should be put in jail, or worse. And thats independent of whatever happens with the economy. Theyre just idiots.

The banks are amazing. Nothing's really happened but in 3 days theyre like -20% LOL.

Yea I don’t get it. Like 80% of the inflation we saw was directly caused by supply chain and issues related to the government deciding to shut down the country during COVID. Close businesses, ban people from leaving their homes, give out stimulus money to compensate….none of this was anything the Fed had any business getting involved in at all. The Fed at this point is just redistributing the assets some have nots acquired during the “pandemic”.

If 5 more underperforming talking heads come to the conclusion we are headed for a "hard landing" I am going to sell all my stocks. There is just no other logical choice.

Rotating some HTL proceeds into more Nintendo and Fairfax

I also just think its the news cycle and lack of investment acumen/confidence that leads most to need to have a reason to explain every market gyration. Market had a solid few months, then it pulls back some. Sounds like the stock market being the stock market. Why waste time trying to guess everything?

Got 457.55 quote AH on the QQQs after a 459.66 close. Not sure what youre seeing.

Anyone know if Mr Ozempic plans to join the call again to present his updated short thesis?

How bout that inverted yield curve everyone’s been jawboning about for…years…..

They were years where the world didn’t end?

Id just hold both. Different profiles but same general investment.

Yea I was approached about the IPO and those were exactly my words. These things never trade at a premium to NAV and always trade at a discount, why would I be in a rush to own this, despite really wanting to own this?

Numbers are racist which is why we need to stop emphasizing math.

He’s a dermatologist and just wasted the core of his 20s and early 30s being a slave to the institution. AND all he has to show for it is tons of student loans. You couldn’t PAY me to do that. And yes, as mentioned in the following post, the MD world has changed drastically the last decade.

Yup. Wife and I have already had these thoughts. Generally speaking, the types of jobs such as electricians, plumbers, nurses, etc, can made great livings while having mobility and a degree of independence. Without the $100k+ of government/parental assistance needed to become an accountant or similar desk jockey type job. My middle brother is a white coat doctor. He’s in his mid 30s. Has 6 figures of debt. Lives with mom and dad. Just wasted 10 years in the school and residency programs. All over, top to bottom, I’m seeing little evidence that there’s material value to the higher education system relative to what it costs.

Yup. When the liberals hand government more power, less freedoms for everyone is the result. I used to walk home from school. Now as a parent I have to arrive 45 minutes early just to get a parking spot and wait in line to sign out my kids.