Gregmal

Technical analysis is also synonymous with gut feelings. It’s just two things happen in finance. First is that these folks need to manufacture intelligent sounding rhetoric to explain everything even when it’s simple. And two, they’re all pricks who have superiority complexes and need to nitpick and diminish what others do which leads back to number one. Hence, “technical analysis” which as has been mentioned, is subjective. It does work for some. But if those folks were asked how they arrived at their conclusions for trading and simply said “it’s oversold on heavy volume and I think it bounces a few percent” the clipboard crowd would say it doesn’t count and they need something more quantifiable. So really, everyone should just do what works for them. I do find charts helpful to a degree because they show sentiment, psychology, and trends. If I see a multi year ski slope chart top left to bottom right, I don’t even look at stuff more often than not. Especially if there’s dilution. Whereas if I see a serial performer typically there’s something to it.

Nah, you're pretty spot on with the negatives. Theyre all true.

It’s cheap, good balance sheet. Pays out decently. Think less bad than historical bodes well going forward. Expect a big tailwind for these as auto prices remain high and people much like with their homes are forced to stay put. Bit more to it but I’m still doing some work.

Idk I just recall that for years folks begged for a stock pickers market and now we have a pure stock pickers market. And? Bonds? Come on.

Started SMP

From birth basically. Its easier that way. Keep a monitor in there, theyre good.

Yea kids in the bed means bad things lol. No soup for you! Ours have occasionally done this even at older ages, but it’s not encouraged. Even tell my two oldest, 4 and 6, you have a nightmare, fine. Otherwise, go get yourself a snack and play in your room and then go back to bed. It also helps our bedroom is on the second floor and the kids are on the first.

Just in general worrying about 25 to 50 basis point moves in anything is dumb. But their job is to generate interest. So it’s a big deal for us according to them, I guess.

Catnaps. Adderall to stay awake and shift your productivity hours to early morning stuff. Coordination with wife on shifts lol. Been there. Done that. Totally doable if you don’t have to report to a cubicle from 9-5.

Do you have a job that requires you to be somewhere for specific hours?

I know nothing of the situation but is the playbook now really just anywhere you have a fire to blame and hold liable the electricity companies? Remind me to never invest in one.

HTL, LII, KVUE

The hysteria never stops, the price targets just slowly get revised…generally upwards.

So SPY 3000?

We ve been hearing this since q4 2021. Eventually maybe it’s true. Last year some were asserting the Xmas trees were going on credit cards. Frankly I think it’s all bullshit. Anyone who still has COVID stimulus I admire. Cuz most Americans blew it within days or weeks of getting it. Remember it only went to people in the lower brackets. So following this story at this point in time imo is stupid.

At least the “are they really this dumb” debate is settled. Awhile ago there was talk about “no they’re not stupid and they’re aware of the impact housing has on the overall inflation figures”….well it’s all housing now and they’re still jawboning about rates lmao.

I remember last year around this time when it was reported to be a very big deal that Burry “sold all his stocks!!!”.

But homebuilders should be trading for 1/3 of book value….

I fell in love with the convenience of everything you describe above during COVID. Late 2020/early 2021 we drove to Florida instead of flying with all the scoundrels and stupid restrictions. Did 3 days of 6-7 hours driving each and stayed in $700-1200 a night places on the water the entire way down for $70-100 a night because of the hoax. Now of course we re staying at the same places and it’s hardly cheap, but once you get away from the scum you just don’t go back. Same way I’ll never take public transit to NYC again.

Yea I think a lot of the tells with respect to these fool policies and their soundness lies with how and what the people championing them get out of it. Look at the John Kerry Climate Enrichment Scheme. Or if they even live by the same principals they preach…most don’t. People saying defund the police who have personal security teams. I’ve got a neighbor at my lakehouse, a local politician(albeit a failed one, she ran and lost) who flies every flag you can think of, except the American flag. Big socialist, huge on open borders even though we are probably the last area in America to be effected by it….and yet! Her house is completely fenced in. Signs everywhere letting everyone know it’s private property and trespassers will be prosecuted; this after buying the house from a beloved old conservative couple in the community who used to welcome people to cut through their driveway to get from the top of the community down to the lake….

@dealraker That was such a good and thought provoking post. And just like that, it’s gone LOL. So many people have choices they either aren’t aware of, or refuse to acknowledge.

Think you guys are missing something else super obvious. Especially from a credit analysis perspective. That’s the number of people who are locked into their car ownership, regardless of what cars they buy going forward, simply by the negative equity aspect. Whether it’s leasing or financing, so many people would be prohibited from just walking simply because of the degree to which they are more or less forced to roll into new leases or financing due to having to cut checks to be free of it.

“Almost all of the monthly inflation increase came from shelter costs, which rose 0.4% and were up 7.7% from a year ago.” LOL…and they think the answer is still hiking rates! This has to be one of the dumbest regimes we have ever had. THEY are the cause of the inflation at this stage of the game….

Yup. The second everyone has clarity is when all the easy money is gone. Then you just gotta figure out where and when they’re gonna do it again. Or just permanently call for a recession lol.

They’re hedges, the only problem with them losing money is if you aren’t making money. When they work I expect my broader portfolio to be declining, and when they work I structure them so they should pay out multiples of the capital I commit which allows me to then redeploy it at much lower levels. The $210s should 5x on a 20% correction.