Gregmal

I don’t think you need it to because if it does, at 5x you get rich really quick.

Recession prep

Yo LOL. One of those two I’ve been buying a lot of lately and totally agree.

Yea for some reason this one was just too immediately obvious and easy. I took some off at $26 and am debating holding the rest til the long term gains rate kicks in. Figured $30-40 per share inside 3 years was reasonable from $16-17 on day of the announced gift. Maybe too cautious on those projections

No problemo. Glad to see so many people making money! One of the elements of owning both that I became more and more fond of over the year was that these two investments in a way complement and counter balance each other in the portfolio. Either way rates go I win with these the only question is how turbo charged that gets. As long as there’s no major hurricanes it’s hard to lose with them!

Merry Christmas friends. This year was another rolling Christmas present. Here’s to many more!

Puts and treasuries obviously.

LOL everyone fears volatility, that’s we we have volatility

US Steel is up a lot too...must be euphoria.

Yea I started inadvertently doing this, and now my top 5 is > 100% lol

Idk but the “greed and euphoria” narrative really only seems paired with stocks going up. I don’t see much by the way of crazy positive sentiment in too many places. It still actually seems like the overriding emotions are skepticism and bitterness.

So what’s the new super bear target? 3750? When is the recession coming as well? Need to prep. What if inflation stays sticky icky icky at 2.197846% vs 2.0%? At some point we either learn or we don’t. New records make money. Old records make money. Broken records don’t.

I just think it should be obvious to everyone that this guess the short term stuff game is for suckers and inside of it are two types of people…. Leaches and scoundrels who don’t actually put money behind the stuff they’re spouting off about…basically analysts, tv personalities and subscription sellers…they make money because they finds an audience of idiots. And those that do put money to work and the results often tell a different story than the one they often boast about. Of all the folks I’ve met in my life who fall into this bucket, maybe 10-15% are legit. Out of that 10-15%, probably 90% don’t really seek to make public what they do.

Cramers done better than the recession bros this year. So theres that.

Probably one of the hardest things for some(many) market participants to come to terms with is, 1) that they aren’t that smart and don’t have an edge, and 2) that maybe, just maybe, the market is simply, roughly speaking, where it should be and the macro is just kinda gonna truck along in an uneventful way…. One of the bigger takeaways from the past few years is this pissing match like contest of sorts taking place in the public domain where people need to predict these entertaining and sensational things. Of course, as we ve seen, 90% of the predictions from 95% of people are at best just guesses masquerading as informed predictions….but really, it’s not nearly as entertaining or career building a venture to just state that the market/economy is just gonna be fairly average/bland…

Lol exactly. This was all so seemingly obvious yet people chose to live in the textbooks. I really do want to start a thread titled “never forget the experts” and pin all the moronic articles, interviews and columns, Twitter posts, and analyst takes the last 2 years. Probably 85% of so called “experts” turned out to be total chumps.

If you bought stocks every time someone said dont fight the fed or made a recession call over the past 2 years you're crushing it. Sometimes it pays to think independently and go against the crowd. 12-18 months ago I was told about this GFC 2.0 type housing collapse and the impending recession too....here I stand today, far wealthier than the 5% treasury would have made me.

Also think another obvious lesson here is the whole livin in the real world thing. Wayyy tooo much of this "we had inflation in the 70s and this happened then so thats whats gonna happen now", "every time the curve has inverted we get a recession", etc stuff....markets are dynamic and evolving. History repeats and rhymes and sometimes doesnt do jack. Relying on things other than the textbook are crucial to successful navigation of the markets. I mean no better example of living in the real world than seeing the market correlation to CPI...understanding how CPI is constructed(cough flawed/rigged), and then trading that wind and unwind...was easy if you saw it. If not you went around thinking things were what the talking heads told you.

I "don't think most saw" the risk that at the ending of the hike cycle and inflation hoax that markets would be at ATHs...Never even sniffed those low targets and sans a few hour test of SPY 3500s, nothing materially bad really happened anywhere except some bonds and shitco banks LOL

Who cares? It was a total mistake last year to sit around wondering "whats the fed gonna do" and its a mistake today. Thats just a dumb way to invest as theres far more important variables out there.

Man idk. A lot of ridiculous forecasts and predictions were made. We were told all these kinda dumb little 1 and 2 percents and insignificant monthly rounding errors forecast absurd price targets for “the markets”. Recessions have been “called” for more than 2 years now; they’ve always been “just around the corner”…now the saga is over and we re at ATHs basically but I’m sure we ll still hear how we shoulda been in bonds or that the next big scary drop is due any minute now. Biggest takeaway isn’t really the importance of spiking the football, but rather to ignore the hysteria and think with one’s head, in the real world, and that stocks tend to do quite well over time. It’s not much more complicated than that.

Only question left is what’s the next hoax?

Didn’t we say the same exact thing last year about the big wage price spiral in January 2023? These things are largely imaginary.

It is said to be dead by YE 2024. Maybe, maybe not.

Long la liquidityless litigation liquidation. Bought $30k worth of GYRO. Might buy more if I feel lively and can get some stock.