Gregmal

Absolutely savage shit here. Poach their deal, crush them, buy them. I wonder what the Fanatics guys do for a living…..

I try not to worry about why individual guys think too much on that type of scale. But I do find value in using guys like Miller to flag potentially interesting ideas. Bill has consistently demonstrated a skill most big managers don’t have in terms of catching early stage themes, and especially impressive is the range of diversity in the areas he can invest. But I never found his macros views important or even his position sizing. If someone owns something I just assume it’s cuz they think it’s going to make money. Then I try to figure out the rest for myself.

I think what’s missed is the excellent point made earlier about why it’s gone from 400(or $4) to $40k and why people still can’t seem to see the bigger picture. Which is what Miller himself has said for ages and said again recently in this interview.. What are you risking putting 1% into something interesting? People take their 1%s WAYYYYY too seriously. Some one recently asked me why I was buying call options on gold instead of physical or direct gold. And the answer was simple. Why would I waste a few % on the physical? To make 10% a year if I’m lucky? That translates to a whopping ONE HALF OF ONE PERCENT!!! portfolio gain on a 5% position lol. What’s the point?

Tikr

If part of your thesis is a squeeze then timing is absolutely part of that. So the firm basically saying, what they've already admitted to under oath, that they stopped trading to mitigate poorly framed risk protocols...yea, thats not right.

There should 100% be consequences if a firm doesn’t let people trade, at least in the way it went down at Robinhood. Glad this guy got something.

Yup. They get on with their lives the same as they always used to. Imagine that?

Yea but don’t worry, all you small businesses. While you’re riddled with burdens, Walmart is open and happy to poach your business. Meanwhile the clowns in Canada still can’t even figure out how to host a hockey game. At least we re not THAT bad.

Yup. Ive literally had someone ask me if I could reduce the 1099 amount I sent them so they could stay under a certain amount for benefits and child support purposes. I was like huh????? for real??

Small stabs at BEAM, CRBU, RBLX, CPNG, EPSN

Just rattling off a few but stuff like FCX, CVX, CLF, BHP, SU, etc. Its not crazy at all to expect earnings to go up at least 50-100% over the next few years and you'll also get multiple expansion which, starting from a very low base, is all you'd need for some big wins. If AAPL can ride an earnings and rerating wave over 5 years so can XOM. Just depends on which cycle we're in.

https://nypost.com/2022/01/09/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-tests-positive-for-covid-19/ “If I had a dollar for every lockdown politician who decided to escape to Florida over the last two years, I’d be a pretty doggone wealthy man, let me tell ya,” DeSantis, 43, said Hopefully AOC recovers. Although her symptoms apparently mimicking that of a hangover, so who knows.

Righteous gemstones is back. Woohoo

Signs everywhere in a 30 mile radius of me offering $80k plus sign on to drive trucks or work the factory. 3 days off per week. Plumbers, electricians and mechanics make $125k working their own hours. Basic landscaping and contractor labor is $25-35 an hour. Stock boys at Shop rite start at $17 an hour. You want to be long this trend.

Yup. Whatever the returns the last decade, there were huge outliers and pockets of returns well in excess of that. Find the pockets of outperformance, and pound that. Or, find pockets of stable but mediocre returns and then get creative. Definitely not as hard as they like to make it seem.

I think it depends on what you invest in. Top already came for the glam stocks of last decade. For the stuff I like, I feel like the kid who’s next in line at the merry go round. The line was long, but the wait will be worth it.

Yea no I actually find a lot of ultimately useless exercises to be good workouts for your mental agility in terms of investing framework. Kind of like batting practice before the game. You’ll have an easier time hitting a pitch you’ve seen before than one that’s totally new. And if you don’t see that pitch, so what? So running through these exercises can have benefits. I just wouldn’t place too much weight on the conclusions they come to.

This whole thing has basically been Pavlov’s Bell x Stanford Experiment. 95% willing yet unknowingly participate. Very enlightening.

Eh I read super compelling and thoughtful research 5 years ago that predicted negative returns for the following decade. Then we have a redonkulous 5 year stretch. The future can unfold in ways we either underestimate or can’t predict so IMO it’s better to just focus on owning quality stuff and then managing the risk on, risk off aspect.

This is a good point. People get way too hung up on silly words. Recession? So what? I'd be more focused on the how and why of it. Rather than just some dumb thing that largely everyone is already aware of. Same shit folks were doing with OMG WORST NUMBARS! SINCE GREAT DEPRESSION when everything shut down in Q2 2020. Yawn. Get over it. What did you expect to happen when it became illegal to go to the store?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3786402-opendoor-offerpad-among-ibuyers-selling-homes-to-corporate-landlords-boomberg Wait so the iBuying is really just a funnel for institutions to accumulate properties? Again, who woulda thunk it? This notion really isnt THAT farfetched. When you think of underwriting costs, loan discounts, selling concessions, all that shit and then some companies and institutions pay for other products...the idea that a long term, institutional holder would give a hoot about overpaying by 10-20% for a long duration asset like a home really kind of shows its immaterial. Especially since most of these long term holders will keep these assets own the books at cost and then split off cashflows to products/funds being managed. For those familiar with the WS game, its actually a perfect product. Have a third party acquire in bulk, then acquire those homes at a blended bulk rate, this rate can be sold to your investors as reasonable even if its slightly over market. Then you can play games with the financing and rents and its truly a great product. The chickens of course ONLY come home to roost if you are a forced seller, and given the dynamic nature of financing for housing, plus ridiculous amounts of liquidity out there, the music aint stopping any time soon. If fact, I think this is only just getting started. If a PE would buy a REIT for 30% premium to its public traded shares, why wouldnt they pay a 15% premium to current market for 1,000 SFH in a good area? So this is all taking place in a market were supply is at all time lows.....building materials are expensive and also sometimes hard to acquire....sooo much liquidity out there and insatiable demand for good housing....bubble? Nope. Maybe the 3rd inning or so.

Added nicely to AIV and PSTH

Yup. And it will be OK. So let’s just get there already. The people whom are uneasy will get used to it once they see there’s nothing to worry about.

I think its fine if people are genuinely serious about their concerns. But whats happening is the same shit that occurred with the PPE loans. Its overrun with scammers. If we were fining people who were just trying to operate their small businesses, or threatening folks walking alone on the beach at one point, lets return the favor. If you're one of the scoundrels with the teachers union pushing for virtual classes, you damn well better be masked up in your house, 6 feet from another person. If not, boom, fine. None of this teaching from Puerto Rico or Sanibel Island shit. How'd you get there? Plane? Boom, fired. If you're telling your boss you cant go into the office cuz you're scared. Cool, I support that. If I catch your ass at a restaurant or bar? Boom, fired. If you are genuinely operating out of safety concurs theres nothing to worry about, but we need to rid the majority of folks who just want to return to normal from the leeches like the unions and 9-5er who is just posturing out of self interest. If you dont want to go to the office, negotiate a new employment contract, dont claim you're scared of a cold.

LOL as a 90s and early 2000s child, I can relate. My siblings and I had many a things like that. However, recently while visiting my parents in Tampa, in their 3 car garage, which is floor to ceiling stuffed with the remnants of 5 kids now out of the house, next to that bag of beanie babies, was a box containing a bunch of boxes of baseball cards I got in middle school. One of which was an 80s set, entire thing maybe cost $5-10 in the late 90s. In that set, a Barry Bonds rookie, current value, ~$700. No dividends though, but capital gains work just the same. If nothing else, it’s validation that supply and demand ultimately rule all.