Gregmal

My read is that would be that AAPL realizes it’s stock has gotten ahead of itself and that something like PTON isn’t worth paying cash for if they can get away with it. I think AAPL has been a great example of a company that does bolt on efficiently and just writes a check the way a college kid picks up cigs at 7/11. I’d have been annoyed if they were just giving away stock for all these little deals they’ve done when they are over capitalized and the stock cheap. But again, a multi trillion dollar titan making a rounding error sized investment would be more of an outlier situation IMO. When I think of all stock deals I generally think of O&G land or telco and real estate where some bloated body realizes they need to hoard cash, are tapped out on debt, and kind of view their stock as a “free play” token at the arcade.

I think there are often situations where value investors extrapolate their own thinking into a market situation and give themselves high probability of getting things wrong. I would say probably 99% of the time a company is doing an all stock deal its because they arent in the financial position to pay cash; and this can in some cases being an indication that the acquisition is potentially too big. Not because they have some savvy operators who ran calcs on their shares and viewed it a better route.

I am not even sure I really understand the whole thing here. Often times you go into a trade or investment with a playbook and the job then becomes about executing it. So if you see a $15 stock and see a setup that gets you to $25 and things play out, who cares where it goes after? There are longer term type investments, but even still, with those, you have to keep things in perspective. I typically have those types of things(BRK, MSG's, FRPH, ALCO) on margin and while I rarely sell those types of assets, if I do its to free up capital for better opportunities. If you are consistently missing big returns because you are selling good stuff so you can go to cash...well thats dumb and makes no sense. But strategically moving stuff around to fine tune your portfolio risk is not something that should be evaluated and a "what could have been basis". I mean I owned TSLA in 2012 at like $25. I at one point bought AMZN at $180. So to hang your head because "At one point in time" you owned something that went bonkers IMO isnt keeping yourself in the right mental place. You should only be hanging your head if your gameplan was to hold the stock forever and then because of poor execution/fear/lack of discipline/etc you deviated.

Oh totally. First things I think of in that regard are Al Capone and Frank Lucas handing out turkeys on Thanksgiving. Or guys like Clinton, Trump, Gates heck even Epstein and their "foundations"....the movie Inside Man basically plays Soros. These guys do the scumbag thing to attain crazy amounts of money and then use their wealth to buy publicity and buy a facelift for the "legacy". Fuck them all. I'd rather have a beer with the guy who anonymously puts $20 in the church basket.(although I'd prefer not to go to church LOL)

MSGE, MSGS

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-record-high-price-record-low-inventory/ Weird, I was told housing was slowing down....

This type of stuff is wayyyy more common than you think in the financial world. The majority of the people who still do this past the age of 40-50 have more money than they need but an addiction to accumulation. They are benevolent only when it suits them, IE publicity and recognition. Type of stuff where they give shares at low basis instead of a heartfelt donation. Tip 15% pre tax. Will flip on a subordinate over $100. Cheap AF. Treat their underlings like total shit. Most got their original fortunes ripping off clients, especially the old timers. P&D schemes, "private" investments, non traded REITs, etc. In addition to hefty wrap and RIA fees. There arent many honorable ones out there. And generally, the ones that are, you'll never hear about.

Exactly. Folks really dont appreciates the beauty of the rental niche. Smart folks who dont want to buy a hot housing market...paying through the nose. Poor folks who cant afford housing? Paying through the nose. Reasonable folks who sold to realize life changing home equity gains, renting til they can go elsewhere...paying through the nose. MF rental is the ultimate long housing play from a risk/reward perspective. You can make money pretty much anywhere in the ecosystem, but a lot of things can slowdown and fall off and in many cases, those things are even more bullish for rentals.

Read it as part of my immersion into the financial world experience maybe 15 years ago or so. Great book.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/06/apartment-rent-and-occupancy-hit-record-highs-in-november.html Nothing to see here. Just more of the same noise. Sounds a lot like table pounding if I had to guess.

Started RBLX

I think it is fine as is. With regard to the BABA stuff, well, if you dont want any inkling of politics dont invest in politically charged investments LOL. Or invest in them, but then dont follow them. There has always been a huge and highly acceptable level of anti Asian sentiment in America and Canada. Some derived from the wars and some just part of the culture I guess. To this day, you can say things about Asians, especially the Chinese, that you'd lose everything for, if you said about one of the popular diversity club members. Just how it is.

Started selling some Dec VIX calls

AAPL Puts

If you guys like RFP and think the catalyst is expected in a 3 month or so timeline, why not blast the April $10 calls for a couple bucks?

CLF, CLPR, CLI and AIV

I'm where you are on the RE stuff mainly because nothing has changed for the worse and we already know what happens with the whole covid stuff if things play out in the worst case scenario. Been there, done that. Playbook isnt a secret, so some of these sell offs arent warranted. I don't even think there will be lockdowns in the more liberal places, this will mainly just be an excuse for widespread mail in ballots to help 2022 mid terms not be a bloodbath. So much ado about nothing and really I think theres some knee jerk covid pussies selling on top of folks taking profits because lets face it, a lot of these names have straight up printed cash this year. AIV for instance Ive watched as its got hit hard but realistically its back were it was like a month ago....and up like 70% still. In the real world rents are still flying, MF is still printing 3s and 4s. I mean sometimes I am a little tone deaf and aloof, but the other day I was out by the mall and it was packed like Ive never seen it before, and then I thought about it and realized it was Black Friday. But at the same time, its a freakin mall where half the anchors are gone and it looks like the parking lot of a Giants game. Consumer is good! So I wouldnt lose sight of that amidst the panic. In many ways I think the market just needed an excuse to sell off. Much like late 2018. The Fed is an excuse. Covid is an excuse. Garbage tech bubble bursting is an excuse. My table pounding trade at the moment is to sit tight but really I think shorting 1/3/6 month OTM puts on some of these is table pound worthy. CLF Feb 17s over $1 and 14s for 50c. CLPR you actually can get some change on the 5s for June and nearly $1 on the 7.50s. CLI $15s for well over $1. Yea I am long VIX calls but its as a short term hedge and frankly, VIX over 30 and especially 40+ which I think we hit this week or next, has always been a level where you want to.....well, I'm not giving investment advice but if you've been there you know what you do when its at those levels LOL I mean something is off and either I'm missing it or the market is just doing what it does every once in a while. Some things are still in the bubble and I wouldn't touch them with a 10 ft pole but others are back at levels where they are nice and if you take 10-20% off from current levels theyre 20%+ position size worthy. I think perhaps this may just be the setup for the same shit that outperformed this year to do so again next.

Trump is actually a good one, at least in terms of the underpinning to the philosophy. Its basically also the Brookfield strategy. Use as little of your own money as possible to get on the deed of a good asset and then let time and leverage do its thing. Then cash out your equity/refi as soon as you can and snowball the thing. Feel free to ignore the names Brookfield or especially Trump if it triggers you, but those strategies if done right are pretty potent.

If Prem is decisive, barring a major market move down, then thats all that will matter and shares will do well. If the market craps out and FFH holdings go to hell, Prem will likely be perceived as the patsy who capitulated right before the decade long bull market ended. So essentially, its a market direction wager where I think you have much better risk/reward than the average security. I also dont think we're headed for a widespread market implosion. The test would be determining Prems resolve if the market goes south. Last time he told everyone the company was well capitalized and then ran into a liquidity crisis, got a bailout gift from reddit and didnt take it, and then decided to buyback FFH just as the Fed started to taper. So its an ongoing experiment.

While this may not be a welcome thought, imagine the poetic irony of the market top possibly being marked by the capitulation of a guy like Prem Watsa. Short the whole way through. Then vows never to short again. Holds his crapcos. Right as we peak? I do have some economic exposure here, and I dont necessarily think the market has peaked(or at least not the parts of the market I live in) but rather we are in a phase in which leadership transitions, but the market is a dark and sneaky psychological bitch. So the thoughts crossed my mind. And I'll just reiterate that I think this would instantly be 20% higher if Prem announced that he sold the entire equity portfolio. Or at least most of it. But Prems gonna Prem. Arrogant through and through.

Yea see something I struggle with, albeit in a minimal degree because I dont invest in Chinese RE and have little desire to at this point, but who picks up pieces here? In the US, or Canada, shit blows up and the knives come out. BAM, BX, and the like. Now US investors and especially of late, foreign institutional investors even starting to come around to asset classes like industrial and multifamily, dips here are bought and money gets made. With the capital controls and outward perception of hostility to foreigners, who buys this Chinese real estate? At what price? A little too vague for me.

Hey man it’s all just dirt. No bias against dirt

For me, I just try to keep it simple. The basic underpinnings of RE investing rely on scarcity and an irreplaceable or desired nature of the asset. So look for good assets. Cash flow is important but IMO overrated. You want optionality. You also should look at the type of debt, specifically term and recourse/non-recourse nature. Management is important, but IMO again overrated. The number one thing I focus on after the above is then what is the private market telling you in relation to the asset/collection of assets? If you can get in at a discount you compensate greatly for other things, specifically, Ive found, less than stellar management. You also dont want to invest where there are secular headwinds, unless, and thats a big unless, the assets are best in class and have optionality. SPG comes to mind there. Same with a lot of other retail. Good retail in a hot area is probably one of the best asset classes to own, especially when the market sentiment is penalizing great assets because of bad ones(or good companies like SPG because of bad ones like WPG). Rural housing in a sub optimal economic location won't do it. Sub par housing in an optimal economic location, IE NY/SF, is money. Or think Simon malls. Great locations, optionality. Just in the past 2 years Ive seen a local Simon mall, basically for shits, carve up several random pieces of parking lot space and turn them into restaurants or NNN lease type assets.

It all depends on what your objectives are. I know @Viking has a goal of staying retired young rather than seeking to acquire more money that isnt incrementally as meaningful to him as what he currently has, and have had numerous conversations on COBF over the years regarding that. If your objective is being able to pay bills, realistically you shouldn't need a ton of capital to do that. If you are looking to compound capital, in absolute terms, then holding cash and will continue to be your worst enemy. I think @musclemanpoint about Dalio in 2020 is actually supportive of the opposite. If you were fully invested in Feb 2020, even after the big drawdown, you were likely whole again within a quarter or two...is THAT, really something to be scared of? Whereas, like I said, the folks who went to cash, didnt really get back into the game until way later. 6-12 months after the covid crash, you could still make the statement that staying the course is early 2020 was the right choice. I do agree with @muscleman on RE though. Given the outlook, certain types of RE, and all that comes with them, IMO are better than gold and the risk adjust returns are insane if things roll the way I think they likely will over the next 3-5/10 years.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/30/ray-dalio-says-cash-is-not-a-safe-place-right-now-despite-heightened-market-volatility-.html A good summary just today from Dalio. There is this grand illusion that money in your checking account is not losing value just because the number doesnt change. Even outside that, theres literally millions of different near riskless things one can do to generate mid single digit returns in a non correlated way. Separately, but relatedly, about this time last year I facetiously responded to a "cash" and "market top coming" topic by saying an idiot could just cover their eyes and go 80% long BRK, 30% long MSFT, and be 10% short ZM and make money while gasp! being on margin. Wouldnt you know, the idiot woulda done just fine. Same thing applies today. People just perpetually over estimate risk and probability and give too much anchor faith to "their" assessments which on a general basis, are typically off quite significantly.