Gregmal

Yea but there was real fear in a lot of places, here too, that these ultra hikes were going to ruin the stock market. Theyre guiding 7 hikes. 2% rate. Who cares?

Schiff claimed to have called the housing market crash in 08 but by numerous client accounts, funds he managed lost as much as 88%. Must be something with the last name.

That’s baller. signed, guy who went to an AGM in sweatpants and new balance shoes once

No shit, eh? So predicating things on the NA narrative didnt quite pan out? Something similar just occurred with the CCP. We good, them bad, might be useful cocktail lounge talk, but it doesnt generate alpha.

Depends because nothing is ever static. I don’t trade on feeling or emotion generally, but I also don’t ignore it. You can utilize it to have an edge. People typically behave in similar ways to similar events. There’s an element of predictability to behavior and temperament. So if my initial thought is “wow this is really good” or “oh no this is terrible” I’ve kind of conditioned myself to step back and then look at the opposite end of that reaction. Lean towards to other side of the popular trade. But it’s all highly variable. If your only goal is to make money you eventually realize that being honest with yourself is the only way to achieve that consistently. You typically don’t want to be investing with the crowd. And if you ever get uncomfortable you cut bait immediately because then it’s starting to get in your head.

LOL like a half dozen people misinterpreted what I wrote. I remember that. About -50% cash meant 1.5x margin. Which was actually a tad higher but 50% I used just quick half assed response. So 50% cash is what you thought I meant. -50% means I’m using margin. That said, as was the case earlier in the year when I said it, a huge chunk of that is cash substitutes. For instance when APTS and PSTH get exchanged I may for the first time in my life actually be “net cash”. Although I’m working on reverse exchanging those dollars lol. Getting to be a lot of decent investments around IMO.

What you mean?

Yea saw that. Funny reading some social media around this. Stuff like, "not buying the market rally because VXX is telling us its a head fake". LOL

Every once in a while these products start going haywire and it can end spectacularly. Anyone seeing this with VXX? Totally ripping and detached from the underlying VIX futures right now. Similar to USO a while ago and the infamous XIV. Might be a trade in here somewhere.

+5. You nailed the “futures markets are wrong” read. Was in fact one of the several things that influenced me to chuck some of my options at pretty much the top. Still holding stuff for the bigger picture play, but short term things definitely got carried away.

UBER, CPNG adds. BIDU calls

LOL please. Don’t even get me started. How bout the coastal elitist right of passage of retiring and ducking out to a state with lower taxes?

Man! And to think not long ago we had a crowd here who contested the intertwined nature of investing and politics. As if taxes, attitudes towards businesses, respect for private property, etc has nothing to do with determining how well an investor will fare. Color me shocked!

Yea but the $90 a week is predicated on $10 a gallon and assuming you drive 300 miles a week. But on the second part, definitely, if you heat your home with oil it’s a doozy.

The biggest winner here will be China. Not really a question about that, IMO. Ukraine and Russia are clear losers. EU/US get….not much. Maybe more fuel for getting the good guys in come November but otherwise their victories will be these “media messages” or whatever that means. China plays peacemaker, buys cheap and valuable Russian assets, utilizes the barter chip with US/EU to gain other concessions. Don’t know if there’s an investing play off that….PTR maybe is on the radar but like the folks who just got shellacked buying Russian assets on the exchanges, I’m not sure I see a direct enough correlation to the available Chinese vehicles to make that wager. Fundamentals can be a clear buy but if the political landscape is mucky it’s irrelevant. Which I think applies 100% to Russian stuff(duh right? Lol) but also to a degree with the Chinese stuff that I can’t assess to a high enough degree of confidence.

This is basically my read. He ll get what he wants, but the price was significantly more expensive than he ever anticipated and obviously this is one of those things where once you start there’s no turning back. He basically backed into a corner and we are starting to see the angle develop where “everyone has their media win”. Wabuffo probably hits the timeline accurately, if I had to guess. Of course, like everyone else, I reserve my right to be wrong…a right I just choose not to exercise as often as everyone else! As for the rest, especially the CNN type narratives about rebuilding the USSR and all that hysteria, I’d be short the shit out of it just like all the other nonsense like COVID, polling numbers, Trump-Russia, etc. Thats been the money trade for a while now. Surprised there’s still people falling for it but again, folks believe what they want to and it can cloud their judgment. Makes investing easier for the rest of us.

Yea but what’s the guy in Russia, who works construction, sitting in his living room drinking vodka seeing on TV? That’s what would be interesting from the perspective of studying narrative shaping and propaganda. the stuff that “leaks” through is often leaked through for a reason. Basically to the points @changegonnacome made. Same way you have these toolbag news editors screaming at the underlings “go find me an unvaccinated 6 year old in a red state who’s in the hospital with COVID”. World is big enough to find whatever youre looking for and with enough publishing power you can create all kinds of illusion. What is the illusion being presented to the pro Russia Joe Schmoe? It’s not the one we are told it is here, that’s for sure. They’re people, just like us. What influences them?

^excellent points. I would actually be really interested in seeing what the Russian media is doing and how they are framing all this. If nothing else, we all know how the garbage gets rearranged here, but it would be fascinating to see the other side of things. Wars, more than most other events, while ongoing, are really, really easy to shape. There’s always photos or people who you can go to in order to shape whatever narrative it is you’re looking to shape.

I guess it’s just perspective then. If I was in Ukraine, sitting around thinking and feeling isn’t going to do shit but make me mad and sad. Now what? Wait 10-15 years for a coin flip outcome and best case rebuild? No thanks. Lousy luck of the draw but the only real viable plan is move and start over. All these fake western helpers? Wanna really do something? Hold those funds. Allow these people fleeing in with open arms and then utilize those funds to give them a start. But that’s too practical. We rather virtue signal and send them the resources needed to die of a thousand paper cuts.

Yup. 100%. Which is why two bottles of good Russian vodka wasn’t enough. 28 might not be either. But the store didn’t have anymore. Anyone know where to get Cuban cigars? These things don’t go away. Ever really.

The more questions you try to answer the more you increase your odds of being wrong. The bigger the questions, the more you’ll inevitably miss. So for me I just try to look at all that stuff, probably a bit more, find a few areas where you can handicap things a little more precisely, and then hang out in those spaces. For instance each NYSE stock can be bought or sold. Each typically has sets of options that can be bought or sold. Even within the options, there’s dozens of different strikes and prices on said strikes. So for each individual name there’s maybe hundreds of different approaches you can take to making a buck. Now think there’s thousands of names. And thousands of offsets such as commodities or bonds or whatever. All you gotta do is find a few that work for you and you can do well. The traditional approach of “is XYZ a good investment” is so overrated. Or, “what is the market going to do”.. choppy markets are great because of volatility. If you know how to monetize volatility it’s even better. So I in short, think but don’t overthink. The great thing we’ve been seeing over the last year or so is the decoupling of assets to market correlation. ARKK vs SPY vs BRK TTM is a great highlight of this.

Not at all. But sadly, the honest truth is that Ukraine is a lost cause. They can “win” the war, if by win we mean get Russia to retreat and rebuild their pile of rubble. But in my book that’s not a win. It’s done and nothing that can be done will bring back the buildings and places, not to mention all the loved ones lost in this. So sitting around here virtue signaling about help is laughable. You know how we really help? Next time don’t start meddling in other countries business! Don’t vote for politicians who have been playing the same game for decades! Do things differently than they’ve previously been done because otherwise NOTHING will change. Meanwhile many suggest the solution is giving these SAME people who got us here, more money, more power! What a joke!

Exactly. 100%. The narrative a lot of people are swallowing is that “completely out of nowhere, with zero warning or provocation, Russia went in and massacred Ukraine”. Notice how all these “problems”, over and over again, involve the SAME solution! More and bigger global government. More reliance from people on government resources. More taxes and commandeering of private property. If you don’t see that you’re being played. And what’s worse is how they use these tragic situations to further manipulate. As Viking eluded to earlier….we MUST be Putin sympathizers if we don’t see it their way. They came for republicans and libertarians and now they’re even steamrolling moderate liberals like Manchin.

The only thing non investment related people need to realize is that all the hobnobbing government people play games. They do self serving shit and the costs are always bore by the people. It’s tragic for both the people of Ukraine and Russia as well as the folks from there living all over the world. I mean imagine being an anti Putin Russian living IN RUSSIA? Now you get fucked economically because western government needs an excuse for the inflation problem they created through their bungling of COVID. So you’ve suffered for all these years because you’ve opposed a totalitarian regime and now that regime does something you oppose and you get walloped by the virtue signalers in the ivory towers! Kind of like being a Republican in a blue state in the US right now. Тhats why to a certain degree, hostilities towards the people who through their own need to virtue signal, vote for or financially endorse this crap….can sometimes be justified. My friends father in law a good example. Retired NYC school principal. Moves to Florida two years ago and now complains about policies he doesn’t understand because the media tells him to get mad at De Santis. Like the kids wearing masks thing. Oh my god he was a taking piece. And my friend simply tells him, nothing forced you to move from NY. YOU chose to move because you liked this better. So don’t come here with all YOUR crap; the ideologies that turned where you came from into what it is, and now start trying to spread the same toxic shit here. If you find it so bad you don’t have to be here but don’t ruin what’s great for no reason but your own selfish BS. You make a fortune off your pension but at the same time abhor NYC taxes? Hypocrite.

The replacement works in a vacuum because you drop the gas cost big time. But to get the EV you need to buy the vehicle and thats the problem. So yes, when my 155k mile IS goes, I'll probably look to an EV. But a Lexus will run forever(knock on wood) and a new transmission or whatever big ticket item is may run $5-8k. So I plan on getting at least another 5 years out of it. I have no cost outside of maintenance and gas right now. With a new car you're looking at parting with a lump sum or having a monthly payment.