Gregmal

Still lots of crap trading at crazy multiples and to be honest, the quality stuff is still hardly cheap. Non tech though, getting juicy. Blackstone told us all we needed to know this morning. And if they didn’t, Kohls did.

With all the people looking for “The Top” and wondering when it will be….it was already found. Hopefully that helps with all the confusion.

Cleared my FRFHF. Figured I’d take my $50 in two months and run on a turd most have not gotten a penny out of longer term. Rather play the inflation game on my own than hold the bag on Prems crapfolio should things go south.

Added a few COST into the close

Added DIS and shorted some CLF puts

If rates go on a multi decade run higher theres definitely a playbook for that. The main thing though is that I think its important to keep perspective and not run for cover over the prospects of a fear inspired correction but to remain positioned for the long haul. I still really dont see anything that has gotten whacked that didnt deserve to. The big Xmas 2018 selloff was a whopping 3 week correction LOL. And the following year the SPY did like 30%. The Thanksgiving variant panic sell off, one whole week. So I try to just keep in mind that its important not to make more of something than necessary.

Yea Im deducing from the way he put the question that he s talking like $100k or less, and for family at that. So its not like entering a real business proposition where thats the model. And its not like its a life changing(I guess debatable depending upon the audience) amount of money. I would never suggest doing this with the intention of making a profit or a living out of it, with the ingredients involved above. Mainly, as Ive said Ive done for friends and family, is to get them off and running. Typically, with larger amounts or meaningful money, I just tell people its easy and they can do it them selves and then just give them ultra conservative investments and tell them to buy it in their personal accounts. I agree managing it is probably fruitless in close proximity situations where theres more to lose than just money.

Did the same with a few family members mainly to get them started and over many of the typically “stock market” fears. On what’s fair, IDK depends on the objective. Are you trying to make money for yourself? With the above structure? If so I’d just guarantee 5% and then go 50/50 on profit over that. If not then just do it for free. Or a case of beer every now and then

I think the false aspect of @Viking post above is with respect to “all this is happening because the Fed is talking”…. what is “all this”? The Fed s been talking about rate hikes for almost a year and last year the market did 25%. We ve pulled back like 3-4% to start the year and are like 10% off even on the overvalued Nasdaq. In a certain day and time this was really just something markets did. I remember the flash crash in 2010 maybe, when stuff like ACN went to a penny or something nuts. Dow lost 1000 points mid day FOR NO REASON! Everyone tried to make up a reason for it but really it was just markets doing market things and algos going berserk. Now I feel like folks spent way too much time trying to “survive” what was once just considered a standard pullback or correction. It, in terms of a market or whatever, seems to be acting like a market can act from time to time. The last Fed meeting and notes were all pretty much orchestrated and laid out a plan that’s been known for months. Tech has been blowing up since February of 2021. That was the start of the bubble deflating. It actually I thinking started with the vaccine announcement if you followed stocks like ZM and PTON…they never saw those highs again. But it’s not like anything new has been happening really. I would just caution ascribing too much to the narrative of the week which is currently “it’s the Fed”. A pullback can just be a pullback. Corrections happen. Tech garbage that was getting destroyed is still getting destroyed and excessive valuation is being questioned. This is a good opportunity to pick up stuff getting dumped over fear of “the stock might go down tomorrow”. Maybe another leg down happens but I don’t see anything fundamentally having changed. I do feel like we ve conditioned a generation of investors to run for the hills at the first sign of turbulence. I should start getting everyone their “i survived the 10% crash of January 22” shirts though. Would be nice gifts.

Ya I agree on Nasdaq for sure. Was talking with a few folks today. Old COBF friend Cardboard loaded up on Jan 28 expiration $500 Netflix puts and just made a fortune. But the other point was how AMZN might be the trophy elephant. Why? It’s the last stock anyone is talking or thinking about shorting. And it’s growth is behind it, EPS lacking, and yea there’s also a possibility some of this monopoly stuff starts coming home to roost. It’s not a great absolute short, and I no longer short for the sole intention of making money but rather to hedge, but between that and AAPL I think a half intelligent gent can easily get some crash/correction protection in size and cheap.

I love how Grantham arrives at his S&P value by using a trend line LOL. Guy never has anything new to say and what he says is always from the same script.

Ive always found anecdotal stuff useful. The only question I ask ahead of it, is does this experience reflect that of a typical person in a typical situation. IE is this indicative of the broader market. Whats cool with housing, is you can go make a few calls and get to the bottom right away. Take a brokerage statement(or another proof of resources) and contact a few agents anywhere you're looking to invest, letting them know you have the funding to buy already secured. In a day or two you can start making offers. See how easy or difficult it is to buy a house right now. Spoiler alert: its definitely not easy.

Well more importantly, I dont think KO or AXP is a HTB.

I’ll preface this by saying that I probably trade just as much as anyone, so I appreciate all datapoints, but when I step back and put the following into perspective, I find it really amusing how much focus the average investor has(or doesn’t have). Since 2018 we’ve gone from ….sell everything the fed is tapering(wrong call) to OMG next Great Depression(wrong), to OMG the economy is too good! At a certain point it’s just like STFU and focus on investing longer term LOL

In that case I'd agree. But short interest and borrow rates fluctuate like the temperature and are typically short term phenomenon. You are probably 99% accurate, at least from my long list of recollections in that the long term prognosis is terrible if you track those companies. That said, even with eventual 0 SHLD, every instance I can remember where borrow went over 50% annually it was a great long for the next few weeks. Man I miss that one. We'll probably never find out but I always had a suspicion something was going on there cuz Eddy almost always waited for the borrow spike to drop a form 4. Then you'd get a 50% rip. Rinse, repeat. TLRY too that mega squeeze started after the borrow went from like 25% to 500% in a few days. Then the shares went from about $80 to $250.

When I check daily lists of largest borrow increases the first thought is to typically short near dated OTM puts. But thats just me.

Eh there's actually a good bit of evidence that spiking short interest/borrow rate is bullish. It prompts short covering from the cheapskates who dont want to pay it which then jacks up the bid which then results in the squeeze due to a rising share price and lack of locate as previous locates get sold. High borrow cost is one of the things you look for is you're looking to go long a squeeze and its also one of the things you are taught to avoid if looking to enter a short.

Followed it loosely but other than buying a few at 17 AH Friday that I dumped at the open Monday morning haven't owned it and dont know enough about it to do more than stupid little swing trade. Some of the stuff Ive been hearing about and people Ive been talking to indicate that the opportunity really lies locally and in general if you can find app integrated stuff. For younger kids especially, content focused streaming service type education. It is for sure interesting but niche type stuff at the moment and would certainly be on the private market side. I am unaware of anything public that really fits this angle.

You can hold fully paid for securities in type 2 though.

Nursing has and always will be in demand though, so its decent. Personally I'm looking for opportunities to make private investments in schooling or education platforms for K-12. One thing COVID really exposed is how much of a joke the public schooling systems are. Outside of being slaves to the scumbags at the unions, they're just plain second rate compared to other options. Record number of kids are currently being homeschooled or enrolled in private schools. There will be fortunes made with this, and not in the scummy for profit college type way. You just gotta dig a little harder to find the opportunities.

Canada lectures us from a paper pulpit. The US is largely an importer of low quality immigrants. Canada? Not so much. If anything, I’d like the US to be more like Canada.

Been a boring last 12 months for the story and should continue to be for the next couple Qs, but at this price I view it as a reasonable place to again start going overweight in anticipation of the future catalysts.

This could end up being a long list, no?

PCYO

^really interesting company at quick glance, thanks. Worth a further look. Lots of times its those exact types that go on crazy runs and then get taken out shortly after everyone sees how special it is.