Gregmal

Rolled a portion of these down to the $300 strike and out to June. Net reduction in cash attached to the position.

That’s what they should be called. Without too much detail, in high school I knew a guy who’d bundle MDMA and a little blue pill. It was distinctive to say the least. Like being Bonds/McGwire/Sosa in home run derby. Whole generation of girls who’s sexual bar was set wayyyyy toooo high way too early. Feel bad for their eventual husbands.

Also, they appear to be for swimsuits. But anyway, I doubt Alibaba sells whatever it is you assume is associated with that sort of lifestyle.

LOL nice try. Those ads along with the ones for watches have been showing up for months. They didn’t start last week…not to mention, they are from Alibaba. So yea.

Yup. I was and I wasn't. It looked for a minute like the big sellers had been alleviated when we got back over $12. You could see the stock trading normal again. Friday too had a bid all day near $12. Today there was as much stock as one wanted at the ask all day long. From talking to a few folks its really just exhaustion from Harding's paint dry strategy right now. Its a little concerning to me that with all the stuff happening over the next two years, they dont have the confidence to at least even authorize a buyback. But whatever. Ive got all day so it works for me.

I actually just noticed the skimpy ad above is a BABA ad. Not an expert on how tech works, but probably not a coincidence given the popularity of that thread.

More PCYO

Some interesting and obvious takeaways from all this I’d say.

Ads do get a bit weird sometimes. Although I did get snagged with one for an at home hockey rink. $40,000 later…..

Also PCOR starter

Msgs

Woah! So when NY and CA do this shit its prudent until FL shows its nonsense. Now China is crazy for it? Fuck me!

Finished Wecrashed on Apple TV. Overall it exceeded my expectations. Almost died laughing at some parts of the last episode. Not sure how true to reality it is, but man, the arrogance in that scene when he s talking about firing the whole board and then replacing them. Neumann: “How about Elon?” Wife: ”honey Elon wouldn’t work. Besides, he’s a peer. You wouldn’t learn anything from him” Neumann: “how about, Obama?”

Basically wondering how folks think about this. For myself, I am not sure I’d consider it worth it, to avoid a temporary housing correction of 10-20% considering: -transaction costs -primary/secondary homes have utilization value to a person -I really, really like having that 30 year fixed debt at 3-4%. -what do I do with the proceeds after it’s sold? -there’s no assurances prices are going to even decline that much, or at all. Maybe with a portion of my investment properties I would consider selling, but even there it’s still not clear to me that it’s worth it. Curious how others think about this.

Do some math. What are the total number of available homes on the market right now? What’s 10-20% of that at average home price? Now how much residential RE is JUST BX taking down PER MONTH? Most in cash. It’s pure supply and demand.

The markets go up a few percent, like early in the month, no big deal. Markets go down a few percent, and everyone panics and thinks something happened. Its really just volatility. Love it or leave it. I honestly dont see the fuss really in anything. The stuff people got greedy with or made fortunes on, bonds, growth stocks, is giving a lot of that back. Even after Netflix putting in an absolutely dismal 12 months of fundamental performance, is stock is basically back to what? 2019 levels? Nothing lasts forever. By and large it seems stocks are finally reacting to fundamentals for the most part, investors are starting to value real earnings again, and in general, good stock selection is being rewarded. Whats the problem?

Added a few more May 330 QQQ puts. Imagine what a dumpster fire that’s gonna be if the big tech stuff all the value bros have been buying fall flat on earnings next week?

IIRC, GRBK was originally a shitty green energy play he and Loeb(I think it was Leob but may have been someone else) went in on. The thing went south in a huge way. In order to preserve the NOL they converted it to a homebuilder and then recapitalized it and stocked it up with sun belt inventory bought right after the financial crisis. I have no clue what the IRR is, and while its been a home run from certain points in its history, I dont know how clear it is what he's made over the long haul. The execution though has been superb.

LOL. Yea, makes me uncomfortable for sure. Although the environment guys like him have been thinking they are investing in for the past decade may finally be here. He hits all the valid points though. Folks are reading out of text books and trying to apply that crap to a real world situation thats entirely different. Thats generally the wall of skepticism and ignorance thats needed to go from 4th inning of a boom to 5/6.

I’m kinda with @Spekulatius. First I look and see a sub 10% coupon and am like ehh, for a full year? Meh. Then I’m like, inflation is basically equal to or greater than that. Why tie up the capital to make nothing or very little? Rather just put in some work on a few cash subs. ALX is still super cheap. BKEP at offer. ALCO even after the recent move probably like 60% of NAV with a $2 dividend. CLPR worst case probably just doesn’t go anywhere and you get paid there too. Could probably find a bunch more if I took the time.

"Even with rising interest rates and ongoing issues surrounding geopolitical stability, supply chain issues, and inflation, the overall lack of inventory over the past year has continued to drive demand for more housing starts as builders continue to try to push inventory to market," said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting. "While rising interest rates are likely to temper demand somewhat, the housing market still has strong underlying fundamentals." https://seekingalpha.com/news/3824247-housing-starts-and-permits-unexpectedly-rise-in-march

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3824196-blackstone-said-to-agree-to-buy-american-campus-communities-in-13b-deal I wonder if halfway through the negotiations they were like “yo we need to lower bc rates soared 1-2% recently”….

Anything is possible I just don’t see any remote comp to suggest this is near 2005 levels. What tipped that mess was the large pools of teaser rates expiring. Adjustable or teaser intro loans were 1/3 or 1/4 if originated mortgages back then. Now they’re 1 in 20. Additionally, you can’t have the type of rental demand we currently see while simultaneously having no demand for the purchasing of homes. I forget where we discussed this but it was about a year ago; basically, home buying and rentals will ebb and flow but broadly act as supporting mechanisms for each other. Rental rates will become relatively attractive and housing demand will ease somewhat. Then rentals get expensive and housing kicks back up. Nothing is crashing because everyone who is “in” right now can afford it and has a stellar rate locked in. For new supply, there’s a massive wave of demand. If and when that passes, it will be interesting to see what occurs then but if I had to guess it’s similar to most housing slowdowns. Same prices. +\- like 10% just lower transaction volume.

The “experts” and overpaid analysts said this was going to stop. Sunbelt specifically, no way it could keep printing these rent growth figures. Yea, that was about a year ago…. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3823528-us-residential-rental-rates-scale-higher-in-march-notching-20-gain-over-2-years Still going. Do people have any idea just how strong housing demand in decent areas is? Even if half the demand falls off, so what? You have 10 people bidding all cash, at or over asking price, instead of the current 20?

The other thing that makes it really easy for me to continue just hanging out in the housing ecosystem is this. Maybe home transaction volume slows a bit….maybe it’s because folks are getting priced out. Well….then it’s good to be a landlord or own apartment reits bc rents will continue to soar. If you have exposure to both…win/win.