Parsad

I would imagine that in major cities, the number of car owners will drop dramatically over the next 20-30 years on a per capita basis. I also can see taxi medallions dropping further in value or being non-existent. Regarding someone posting about an autonomous vehicle being able to drive in whiteouts...that will happen and those vehicles will be able to handle whiteouts better than the average driver as they will be able to adjust faster to slippage or loss of traction. Have they even seen people and how they drive in just a few inches of snow...forget a whiteout?! And driving for pleasure...sure that will exist to a certain degree...but you can see changes in driving habits between generations. Younger generations aren't driving as much for pleasure, but for utility. If they could get a car arriving at their door, loading up and then heading over wherever they want with low cost, efficient, easy access, they will. It's why so many people use cabs in NY, etc. And it will only get more efficient and cheaper with autonomous vehicles. Cheers!

More and more people will work from home or satellite cities within 15 minutes of where they live. Cheers!

+1! So much for the scolds of urban dwellers who don't understand driving for pleasure or on dirt roads...since they make up about 25% of drivers. Cheers!

GM and Google have been given approval to run their driver-less ride-sharing/taxi services in San Francisco. I can see the day when most people won't own cars. Just fleets of driver-less ride-sharing/taxis running 24/7 picking you up wherever you are and dropping you off wherever you want to go. No gas, no insurance, no repairs, no driver's license and probably fairly economical rates. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-robotaxi-services-seeking-bypass-000718403.html

All these Chinese hedge funds are going to have to liquidate their portfolios where possible as they shutter! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thousands-tiny-hedge-funds-face-000000949.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-us-banks-reportedly-trying-000319076.html Trouble a brewing! Cheers!

He only got the brand and name back. The actual betting business is being sold to ESPN. If Portnoy makes any money from selling the brand in the future perhaps after building a whole new betting business, Penn gets 50% of the sale. So really, Penn for $1 gets a potential windfall of 50% from whatever Portnoy develops. Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asias-once-richest-woman-lost-115702519.html And I thought Elon lost a bundle with the Twitter purchase! Cheers!

Is it solvable or is it a delay tactic? Look at Japan...250%+ debt to GDP. In an environment were rates are rising and the Bank of Japan owns 43% of that debt! It's a ponzi! A very long-play ponzi. When the dam busts, it ain't going to be pretty! Cheers!

Another Canadian...and American legend gone! Cheers! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robbie_Robertson

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-consumer-prices-swing-decline-014520524.html https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-deflation-beijing-private-sector-ba37b49b?siteid=yhoof2 We're starting to see what was supposed to happen years ago. Governments can't manipulate fiscal/monetary policy limitlessly and debt accumulation will have some consequence. And not just for China! Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-consumer-prices-swing-decline-014520524.html https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-deflation-beijing-private-sector-ba37b49b?siteid=yhoof2 We're starting to see what was supposed to happen years ago. Governments can't manipulate fiscal/monetary policy limitlessly and debt accumulation will have some consequence. And not just for China! Cheers!

It is already and has been for a long-time. But world class companies make mistakes too! Look at META, DIS, BUD, TSLA, GE, KO, AMEX, AAPL (1st incarnation), DELL, IBM, etc...you name it, they've effed up to some degree at some point. Sears was the most dominant retailer in the world for a good 80 years! And then in less than 15 years it essentially disappeared. Other than Solomon, BRK is the exception and has never really been at risk or done something stupid of significance! Maybe that's why people expect other companies to be like Berkshire, but it's not possible. There is only one Buffett. As a risk manager, he is one of one...or maybe two (Jain)! There's a thread on the BRK board asking about who is smarter...Buffett or Munger? If I was hiring one of them, I would hands down hire Buffett or Ajit Jain...ahead of Munger. Why? Because as risk managers they are exceptional...maybe the best to have ever roamed the business world. And Munger is no slouch...but look at BABA. If it went further the wrong way, it could have been catastrophic! Buffett has never had any such loss in the hundreds/thousands of investments he's made. So world class doesn't mean things can't go wrong. Cheers!

+1! Look I'm the biggest Fairfax groupie and I love Prem like he was family, but never fall in love with a stock or investment. Be it BRK, FFH, or whatever...never become so attached that you ignore reality and any possibility of regression to the mean. Markets flow both ways...too optimistic and too pessimistic. By all means hold a large position if you believe in the company, management, fundamentals, etc. But never bet the farm! You only have to be wrong once and the farm is gone. I can't imagine starting all over again at my age (54), and I certainly don't want to start again at 75! I've got all my Fairfax stock in taxable accounts and I'll hold that regardless going forward...just way too much in gains! I would feel sick paying tax on it! But the biggest advantage I have in my non-taxable accounts is, that I can sell when something is over intrinsic value without worrying about taxes, and then patiently wait for the next fat pitch. Cheers!

I don't have anything personal against analysts (although I never use them or read them) and I have no idea if there is anything nefarious behind it...but I agree with you that it is so far off that only a complete moron could come to those conclusions. I could see this report being written three years ago when it was at $450 per share and interest rates were low. But really, only someone who has no understanding about insurance companies could come to the estimate he has based on the information available. Viking has laid out the case about as carefully crafted as you could. But you don't need Viking's reports or posts to tell you that Fairfax is extremely well positioned, with guaranteed positive cash flow coming in well over $100 a year for the next three years, while insurance subs are writing huge business at very profitable rates. Just interest income alone would justify a price around $900 USD. Forget insurance profits and non-fixed income/associate profits. How do you come to a price of $750 CDN? Cheers!

After seeing Vikings compilation, I was going to get Gregmal to do one for JOE, but it would be littered with eff bombs! Equally interesting and a stock that I had no particular love for over the last 15 years...but he similarly changed the thinking of a lot of investors on it. That being said, I still missed it! We're lucky with the members we've had on here...past and present...they've illuminated ideas for many and many have become wealthy from them! Cheers!

Every time any investment goes up, people should just start using the phrase, "Horned it!" Watsa "horned it" this quarter! Buffett "horned it" this quarter! Zuckerberg "horned it" this quarter! Man, I just "horned it" with my FFH the last two years! Cheers!

It's because of guys like this that make the markets so efficient! Cheers!

Also the revolver was renewed for only one year. They should have no problem renewing it again if things stay the same, but in the worst case scenario, if liquidity tightens, there is no guarantee that the revolver would be renewed. They would then have to borrow elsewhere or dividend up capital from the insurance subs. I would just be happier if they were sitting on $2B cash at the holdco...period! Hey, but I'm just a worry wart! Cheers!

Yes. AIG was leveraged 10-1 asset to equity...essentially a bank! I believe BRK has the most equity of any company to have ever existed at over half a trillion. Cheers!

Hi Viking, Just an extraordinary collection of posts! Thank you so much for doing this and contributing to the COBF! Sanjeev

I wouldn't get too tangled up regarding where he would do buybacks. It's a changing target as book increases each year. Just note that when FFH is at opportune prices, he will do buybacks going forward instead of simply looking elsewhere. Cheers!

+1! Yes, that's an excellent point. My comments are meant to suggest that overvaluation in some sectors has brought up the value of the broad market to a high average valuation. Not that you can't find opportunity even in such a market. Only that history suggests that such high average valuations correct...sometimes only in those overpriced sectors and sometimes broadly across the entire market. Cheers!

Sorry, let me make this clearer: 30-Year Treasury yield is going to be at 4.5% soon. Present earnings yield on S&P500 is 4%. At 4.5% earnings yield, S&P500 P/E should be at 22...high-end, not conservative, no risk-premium. Add in 3% net from growth in GDP minus inflation...you get a 7.5% current yield for investors...again, high-end, not conservative, no risk premium or margin of safety. If an investor is aiming for a 12% return on equities, in lieu of risk with a margin of safety, then you would need an earnings yield for the S&P500 of 9% (12%-3%). 9% earnings yield is a P/E of 11 for the S&P500. Thus the median of those two (P/E 22 and P/E 11) would be relative fair value with some margin of safety...P/E of 16. Current S&P500 P/E is 25. So I could see markets correcting from 12% (P/E 22) to an extreme of 44% (P/E 11)...at a P/E of 16 you would see a 36% correction. Unless GDP is growing at a rate higher than average, I can't see how a P/E of 25 can be sustained...or interest rates fall significantly, which also seems unlikely presently. Cheers!

Buffett isn't worried at the moment just like he said in the 2018 letter about owning stocks rather than gold and not worrying about deficits and debt, but if you continue to accumulate debt relative to GDP, I can assure you he won't be voicing reassuring words of comfort as global investors in U.S. treasuries may start to look elsewhere. Cheers!