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Parsad

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Everything posted by Parsad

  1. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-21-26 Trump threatening to blow up Iran's power plants in next 48 hours. Also sending ICE Agents to airports. This guy likes to take big fucking risks! Major gambler...big risks...big bets...big successes...big blowups! That last one worries me! Cheers!
  2. Ah...Iraq taking over Kuwait! Two days! Cheers!
  3. Yes, it would actually probably flip votes. But he cannot do it without ground troops going in. Some of the old school GOP would flip out and more Americans would be against it. And even if troops went in, they would then be there for years until elections are done, new leadership installed, rebuilding of infrastructure, etc. What he needed was a quick, clean victory with regime change using firepower and pressure...a bold win...fast and easy! There is nothing easy about this. Cheers!
  4. Greg...that is something you and I agree 110% on! Cheers!
  5. It's been good...but far from flawless. Otherwise, it would have been over after the first "mission accomplished", then after the "first day" after Trump said they won, and almost certainly by now considering how much U.S. "firepower" is doing based on your opinion. Yet, none of those three scenarios have proven a winner yet! Cheers!
  6. That would be a self-inflicted wound to the U.S. as well, as gas prices globally would go further through the roof. There is no real victor here except some sort of peaceful resolution to keep oil flowing, the Strait open and open inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities. I think regime change will be difficult without Trump cutting his own throat before mid-terms because they are entrenched and targeted bombs won't do it. That's also why he has to keep some sort of leash on Bibi now too because Bibi wants to go for the jugular...but that can't happen! Cheers!
  7. Yup. But I think a lot of people will feel the same way when Trump passes as well. You reap what you sow! Cheers!
  8. A little over a month ago, a teenage hockey player in Providence, RI lost his Mom, brother and grandfather to a shooting by another family member in his team's hockey arena. The team, community and town rallied around the young player. He went on to score the winning goal to send his team to the State Championship! Everyone knew what it meant to him and the community! This week, he scored the double overtime goal to help his team win the State Championship! Amazing! Cheers!
  9. No, you aren't as bad as others. You get more vociferous and accusatory than anything bigoted. I have to make sure you don't make others cry! Cheers!
  10. All "investing" is actually "value investing". If you aren't looking for value or in particular "margin of safety", then you are not actually investing...you are speculating...assuming that someone will pay more for something without knowing its intrinsic value...gold, crypto, etc. Only by examining the cash flows of a business over its lifetime or examining a balance sheet in a liquidation, can you come to any real conclusion of what intrinsic value is...in the future or in the present. AMZN today is a very mature business with much more definable cash flows...it is easy to view it similarly to a bond now. In the early days of AMZN, God it was running massive losses and EBITDA (not the best measurement, but is widely used) was all over the place. You could not get a read on the company. I remember Buffett saying back in like 2003-2004 that AMZN would eventually be profitable...even though I couldn't see it...but he never invested. People think when he said he didn't understand technology, he was referring to the entire industry. But all he meant was that the cash flows at the time were not definable over time, because the businesses were still growing rapidly and so much was being reinvested at a rapid rate into new and existing operations. Would they get back at least a dollar for every dollar spent? Hard to know for many younger tech companies. But those same young companies are all the mature, massively cash-flowing businesses we see today and make up most of the Mag7! Cheers!
  11. Yes, that is true. Holding cash for investment is different than just holding accessible cash. Both need better returns, but the duration of investment is markedly different, so you take a different approach to both. As you said, they are not the same. Cheers!
  12. By the way, Lotsofcoke has known Buffett probably longer than almost anyone on this message board, even though he's only about as old as me. Lotsofcoke, how old were you the first time you went to Omaha? Also, he co-founded the Yellow BRK'ers and had one of three yellow hats! They would go to Buffett's office every year with a birthday cake for him to cut! Cheers!
  13. I responded to ourkid8 before you did. Go back to almost every agitating post and I've probably spoken up before most or when it was brought to my attention. Cheers!
  14. They get it from Fox, Newsmax, NY Post, Twitter and Truth Social. You get it from CNN, MSNBC, NY Times, Facebook and Instagram. No overlap! Cheers!
  15. It might not have been a long-term solution, but depending on the outcome and fallout, this one might not be the outcome everyone wants as well, if it all goes to smoke in a fiery fireball of wells and tankers and we see $200 oil! Cheers!
  16. I call it out more than anyone else on here. I think you are among the culpable that keep pushing the agenda from one side or another. Cheers!
  17. That is one of the biggest fallacies in "value" investing, because Buffett and John Bogle espoused for small investors to always be invested. But if you go back to Ben Graham, you first have to locate enough ideas to fill your portfolio. Most investors don't have the time to do that, so they default to index funds or buy large amounts of just 2 or 3 stocks like Berkshire, Fairfax, similar industries, etc. That probably creates less than desirable results and often correlated risk because people tend to buy more in a specific, distressed industry with similar economics. Cheers!
  18. Oh, definitely not easy...you remember the amount of 10-Q's and 10-K's we were reading on the old Motley Fool BRK Board and on the old MSN COBF Message Board. I've easily read 8,000-10,000 financial statements over the years! Don't know how many discount cash flows I've done or broken down balance sheet assets. Geez, I'm a self-taught accountant catching CPA and auditor mistakes these days! Crazy! Cheers!
  19. There is certainly volatility there...we've already seen a 20%+ drop in some of them like META. At the same time, I think the earnings are definitely more real than anything we saw during the internet bubble era. Now the bonds and cyclical nature of revenue generation...that may be a weak link...but the earnings are real as long as the revenue demand is legitimate. Cheers!
  20. 100%! Yeah, most people think when you move to cash because it is difficult to find good ideas, you are permanently in cash...which isn't the case. That you will miss opportunities by being in cash...which also isn't necessarily the case. If you buy something at a 25% discount, and it returns to par plus 10% per year over 3 years, that's a 21% annualized return. If you are patient and buy something at a 50% discount and it returns to par plus 10% per year over 3 years, that's a 39% annualized return over the same time period. Not only do you wait for fatter pitches, you preserve capital from downside loss in a market dislocation if finding ideas are difficult due to valuation. That being said, if you don't have the psychological makeup for this behavior, or the aptitude/time to develop/spend on it...then you ARE better off just buying index funds/specific stocks and averaging in every year or every time there is a downturn. Cheers!
  21. LOL! Isn't that the truth! Somehow every game winning shot in sports, the bombs dropping in war, winning court cases for illegal activity, basically the existence of your country...always because the "imaginary" friend is always on "OUR SIDE"! Never on the other side...always only on "OUR SIDE"! Cheers!
  22. Sure. But it is all reflexive. Israel has not been the initiator trying to kill off all Muslims...albeit they've done a pretty good job when they've retaliated each time. But there are, and definitely were, sovereign nations in the Middle East that did not want just harm to come to Israel, but a complete genocide...that is not even debatable, even though you would like to try. And you can blame the Brits and the Balfour Declaration for the current mess...what didn't the Brits fuck up back then like the U.S. fucks up now?! Cheers!
  23. No, they are only pro-Jew for the hard right Jews who share the same sentiment. Half of them wouldn't want their daughters still marrying someone circumcised! Jewish or Muslim! Kosher or Halal! Yarmulke or Kufi! Hannukah or Ramadan! Matzo or Pita! Religious blood brothers killing each other and driving the world mad! Aliens must think this planet is retarded! Cheers!
  24. There's blatant racism of various types even on here. There has been a large inflection upwards in antisemitism and antimuslim attitudes...primarily because one group 9/11ed the other, and then that one started large scale assassinations and regime change in the region because they knew they had a supportive superpower in their back pocket. The result would be a natural benefit to both, probably the region and the world in general, but let's do it without any approval from anyone...in regions where we have no sovereignty or right...without due process in international courts, including possible civilian casualties...and we'll create a fucked up mess that we then have to reach out to those that we've pissed off, because we are a bunch of knuckleheads who think we never need any help or anything from anyone else. But hey, at least we took initiative and did something! I wonder why there are biased opinions on here? Cheers!
  25. Everyone has their own biases and opinions. Do you have a place for blatant antimuslim opinions? There is plenty of that in the world as well! Hindus and Sikhs are generally mild-mannered, courteous, respectful people. But they have hardliners that have extreme views and will do anything for their personal beliefs. Pretty much all groups do...there are even hardline Buddhist extremists in Southeast Asia against Muslims! Personally, I have my own biases as well...but at the very worst, I would hope that I don't form ANY opinions about a large population based on minority, extremist behavior. Cheers!
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