Parsad

Yup, and they've delayed the amount of the headsets due to production issues...now only planning 400,000 units through 2023. All of the big tech stocks are expensive...GOOGL might be the cheapest actually now. At 5% risk free rate...30 times earnings or more for these stocks...hmmm! Cheers!

Just reading about crazy mortgage loans being granted got me scared...then I started to get all this information from Fairfax on what they were doing with CDS...and just from my own analysis, banks were at 18-1, 20-1 asset to equity leverage and you knew there was at least some more shit on their books. No idea some exposure at brokers, mortgage companies were closer to 80-100 to 1 until the dominoes slowly started falling in very early 2008...and then I started reading stuff about Fannie and Freddie, as well as mortgage insurers like PMI, etc. There was no way you could have missed it...as plain as it was in 1999, but this time much scarier since these were huge institutions with massive leverage. If you weren't starting to get worried in 2007, you should have been by early-2008. For those that remember and went through it, we were as close as we've ever been to the Great Depression. Without government intervention, it really would have been right up there...maybe even worse on a global basis! Pandemic was financially painful and unusual for business operators, but nothing like the GFC. Cheap valuations during the Pandemic were a gift...during GFC...you were really betting on government intervention and thankfully it came! Cheers!

Yes. I don't use it for anything, but I thought if a great opportunity came my way...and the HELOC is only about 15% of my entire portfolio. So it was minimal leverage, but still the first time I used leverage...probably the last time as well! Just don't need it. Cheers!

Thanks Xerxes!

Thank you Haryana...another year, another ring on the old trunk! Cheers!

You could, but look at the volatility of META, AMZN, TSLA and even COST over the last 10+ years. These stalwarts and outperformers today had periods of extreme volatility. Was COST really as risky as the others? Cheers!

The funny thing is that Eurobank may still be considerably undervalued! Should trade at book or better over the next couple of years. That being said, I wouldn't mind if they take a little off the table here. Cheers!

That's what I thought too! Until Apple burst through 2T and kept compounding to 3T! It will get tougher and slower for BRK to find investments. But a lot of their core holdings, including their amazing insurance businesses, should keep the pot growing for another century. Cheers!

Probably true! Although, I didn't really start investing (value framework) until 1998...did perfectly fine to the run-up in 2007, but then saw the writing on the wall in late 2007. For the average investor, they should just average in every quarter or year in an ETF. Cheers!

March 2020, plus maxed out half my HELOC...never used leverage until then. Went to about 40% cash, then I was also 90% invested late last year/early 2023. Now 50% cash again! Granted I can do that, because most of my money is in non-taxable accounts. Cheers!

Might be due to a couple of reasons: Recent acquisitions like Brit and Allied are more diverse, rather than pure reinsurers. Sold run-off businesses that probably had more long-tail claims. Didn't really enjoy a hard insurance market for a number of years until 2022. Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-most-142737300.html Cheers!

It's because of what date you use. If you adjust the CDN date to mid-May 2023 the stock was at a lower price, thus from that point it outperformed BRK over 20 years. You can play with it and change the starting date to see the differences in performance. I think mine used around May 19, 2023 ending June 29th, 2023...with no dividends included! Add the dividends and the return is higher during that exact period. Cheers!

I'm pretty sure most people, including the media, saw the crazy valuations in tech stocks in 1999 and the silly loans people were making on mortgages in 2007. Nortel accounted for 40% of the TSX in 1999 and no one listened to me or a bunch of other people on the MF BRK Board. I remember the former CEO/crook of Countrywide (Angelo Mozillo) telling everyone on CNBC how they were now doing 110% LTV's...you just had to put the other 10% into renovating the property! In that case, no one was listening to a whole bunch of us on the old MSN BRK Board. Most of the time bubbles are actually right in people's faces. But they just don't want to face it. Or worse yet, they don't want to be in the group that say "We missed out!" Look at crypto or recent small/mid-sized tech stocks that had crazy valuations. But I agree with you that forecasting exactly when the fall happens...that is the damn near impossible part. Cheers!

I thought it was wrong too! But take a look on Yahoo Finance as well...without dividends...last 20 years ending around May 2023. I think FFH critics about performance relative to BRK may have to do a double-take...FFH's returns are now comparable to BRK over the last 20 years and probably will continue to surpass them in the next 20 years simply due to size! Cheers!

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-2yr-10yr-yield-curve-122657298.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/explainer-u-yield-curve-hits-182731416.html Cheers!

Possibly, but there was always the possibility United could go bankrupt and the pass would become useless. I would have stuck the money into equities...particularly BRK if I had known any better back in 1990. Cheers!

I've never heard of this one...amazing! https://thehustle.co/leonard-v-pepsi-harrier-jet-lawsuit/ Although he lost and didn't get the jet. Free miles and travel guy is still cooler! Cheers!

That guy gamed the system once. This guy can gather miles and travel till he dies. Way cooler! Cheers!

The other issue is the amount of radiation he's exposing himself to. Pilots are known for very high cancer rates due to their prolonged exposure to radiation while in the cockpit. If this guy is in the air a couple of days a week for 20 years, he's got a much higher chance of developing some form of cancer. Cheers!

Overall, US banks remain in good shape and withstand stress tests: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/all-23-banks-survive-feds-2023-stress-test-203007760.html Cheers!

Just a few samples of what is happening in Vancouver, and probably the same in Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, etc. Things are still chugging along, but the economic pinch is more like a harpoon going through the side: https://biv.com/article/2023/06/bc-homebuyers-facing-down-payment-pressure-royal-lepage?utm_source=BIV&utm_campaign=3592374380-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2023_06_27_07_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-3592374380-[LIST_EMAIL_ID] https://biv.com/article/2023/06/government-benefits-helped-lower-income-households-afford-rising-cost-living-pbo?utm_source=BIV&utm_campaign=faed4f974f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ba3660ab09-f74cc7858e-[LIST_EMAIL_ID] https://biv.com/article/2023/06/increased-financial-pressures-threatening-choke-life-out-metro-vancouver-businesses?utm_source=BIV&utm_campaign=faed4f974f-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ba3660ab09-f74cc7858e-[LIST_EMAIL_ID] Cheers!

That has always existed and always will exist...can't get rid of scumbags no matter what. Caveat Emptor! Cheers!

I don't know about Q3 Greg, but there are pressures on the system. Name me one period where interest rates moved by 5% and some sort of issue did not arise within financial institutions, the economy or consumers. You have dramatic moves in rates and outlier events will occur. We saw BAC lose $98B of liquidity in a couple of weeks...we saw a couple of very large regional banks go under...we've seen failures in tens of crypto brokers/institutions. And rates have not quite peaked yet...we can expect at least one or more raises. I can't time these things, but I know when to start being wary of what could happen. Thus I remain partly invested and partly sitting in cash until an opportunity presents itself. 175% return since March 2020 to my total portfolio should keep me in good stead even if I have to wait a year or two for that next big idea. For the most part, I ignore macroeconomics, but as Sam Mitchell told me right before the GFC, "sometimes you just can't completely ignore macroeconomics." The risk free rate in Canada and the U.S. is now close to or at 5% from less than 1%...yet markets are up and the average P/E is around 18-19. Markets have baked in that interest rates will peak and come down over the next 12 months. But I can't see how institutions don't have to mark down loans on their books or CRE asset values. Consumers while still spending, are stretched and resorting to credit cards and LOC's. Jobs are plentiful, but budgets are still being stretched. I'd also like to reiterate that I'm not trying to time the market...I'm trying to preserve capital until good, cheap ideas present themselves...it could be now even as things are peaking, or it could be in the depths of a recession. I'm just finding few ideas right now, and that usually means something has to give not far in the future. Cheers!

A sad tale...whether true or not. I feel for the author! Cheers! https://www.yahoo.com/news/dad-famous-alien-abductee-thought-131814962.html