Parsad

Yes, but then he went and made "Sussudio" and destroyed everything amazing he did before! Cheers!

Managing Fairfax is also very different than one managing their own portfolio. We invest in Fairfax for them to manage that risk. Fairfax is a very leveraged business with insurance contracts/payables that need to be assessed regularly, and the portfolio invested in a manner that matches the duration of the insurance contract risks. Our own personal portfolios aren't structured like that...very few of us, if any, use the type of leverage Fairfax uses. We don't run insurance businesses. We aren't public companies exposed to the whim of capital markets. We don't have extraordinary expenses in operations. A whole host of things that are entirely different. So, what Prem often does at Fairfax is very different than what any average investor would be doing with their own portfolio. Including making macro decisions that really aren't particularly important to our personal portfolios, whereas interest rate risk/currency risk/etc could create significant issues for Fairfax because of their global business. Cheers!

Can't do that John...Buffett talks about incentives...what type of incentive would it be to ban you for errors in judgment by other members?! I adjusted Xerxes ban...he will be free tomorrow. He just needed to stop arguing and go back to posting. 73Reds on the other hand gets his full 30 days...he's been emailing me justifying his position and that he doesn't need to apologize for anything. I told him I wasn't looking for an apology, only that he needed to detach himself from the thread for a bit. Ourkid8 really should have been another ban...but he stopped arguing and went back to posting. He's under watch right now! I don't like banning people, but just focus on debating and posting, not personal attacks guys! Cheers!

Looks like it is all coming to a head now...the next week should be quite illuminating one way or another. Do we see a ground invasion? Last minute talks and de-escalation? Peace talks to avoid further bloodshed and economic turmoil? Humanity and their stupidity never get boring, does it?! Aliens should just blow us up! Cheers! https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/29/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump

Oh, he's looking to monetize everything he touches. That's his thing! Iran charging $2M a ship has him thinking with current oil prices, I could charge $5M...not let's get this under control for the rest of the world. If it helps the rest of the world...great! He'll get another award or medal. Cheers!

You and I arguing about politics is probably the worst waste of time we could both spend. A beer together would be far more useful and enjoyable! Cheers!

+1! Every smart person who has made a macro bet, has gotten it right, and built their reputation on it, eventually lost that same respect with their reputation on another macro bet they got wrong. It's speculation. The whole reason we use an intellectual framework to make investment decisions based on discount cash flow or liquidation value is to reduce risk and remove speculative behavior. Cheers!

Others have it harder...Dealmaker is a perfect example...fortunately longer term we both came out fine. That proverb is accurate! My brother had it tougher...sometimes an angry older brother yelling at him, keeping him in line...father gone and not at soccer games, birthdays, wedding, etc...but I'm very proud of him and how he turned out. I'm very fortunate my niece and nephew are very close to me and I get to spend a lot of quality time with them...they were over for dinner last night! In Hindi, the word for "brother" is "Bhaiya". My brother has never taken my name (Sanjeev) other than in introductions (This is my brother, Sanjeev)...always called me "Bhaiya" from when he was a toddler. When my nephew was going to be born, the word for "Oldest Uncle" in Fiji Hindi is "Dada", which sounds too close to "Daddy"...and I didn't want the children to be confused by the two words. So I told my brother for my nephew to call me "Bhaiya", just like his father did his whole life. So now everyone, including my sister-in-law all call me "Bhaiya"! Cheers!

That's very different than making a macro/speculative bet. Which is what you are doing if you base it on macro. My decisions were based on liquidation value (FFH) and discount cash flow (META/HSY). You can argue this however you want...but macro is just speculation, not investment! Cheers!

I bought HSY because it had fallen in value...nothing to do with cocoa prices other than markets reacted. Bought FFH through early and mid-2020. Also nothing to do with macro...was just dirt cheap at 0.6 times book. Bought META in 2022...again, nothing to do with macro...people thought Zuckerberg had lost his mind and the stock fell by nearly 70%. It's always fun to talk about macro, politics, etc...but they should not really play any significant role in your investment portfolio if you are buying individual stocks. It's as simple as that. Cheers!

Yes, I agree with that...not the Cubs part...the rest! How can you enjoy life as a Cubs fan? At 21, I was raising my 9 year old brother with my young widowed Mom...paying for a funeral with less than $5,000 to my name and a credit card with a $1,000 limit...probating my Dad's estate/will...attending parent/teacher conferences with my Mom...sleeping in my car at the beach after arguing with my meddling aunt and her husband...while working full-time at a gas station wondering if I will ever go back to University. I was too busy coaching my brother's soccer team, helping with homework, taking him to movies, the doctor, dentist, family, friends, birthdays, Christmas, holidays, etc...the end of the world was already here for our family...I wasn't worried about portfolio risk or even a portfolio! Funny what seems important or critical really isn't in the grand scheme of things. All I know is that eventually opportunity reared its beautiful head and I found a path out for myself, my Mom, my brother and indirectly my niece and nephew! I can't imagine them living life with fear of what is down the road and not taking risk to make their dreams come true! Again, wasn't the pandemic the end of the world? My niece and nephew are sitting on account/college funds at 8 and 11 where they won't need any outside funding already...Uncle helped Daddy load up their education funds and all of their other accounts with Fairfax at $480 CAD and META at $150! Cheers!

Greatest energy shock in history? What is everyone smoking! It's a shock...crisis...but greatest in history? I'm not against you holding large amounts of cash for opportunity...it's exactly what I do often. The difference is if I find something cheap...and yes, I'm willing to buy it and hold for the long-term if necessary...I buy it. I would just be very careful picking and choosing comments by Buffett or anyone else, or using stats in a vacuum, to back up a stance. All I know is Buffett and Prem are extremely aware of history and valuation, yet both have most of their net worth invested in their own companies and decided to start/invest in them. Buffett started with $100 of his own money, Prem bet everything he owned...but both were never afraid to invest and build their wealth. Prem started after the actual greatest energy shock and 18% interest rates! While their cash position moves up and down, they continue to look for cheap assets till this day...when we are going through the greatest fiscal crisis facing the U.S. and the greatest energy shock in history! Cheers!

Hmmm...there is a Blake on the Trump side here too! No convincing him of anything either. Greatest President in history...fuck Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt and Reagan! Also, I can't remember if "democracy at risk" was a Biden or Trump campaign slogan. Seems to be used by both sides quite a bit! Cheers!

His money, his time, his beliefs. We can challenge them, but has that ever really convinced any one at an extreme? The day he is right, he'll be vindicated. Sadly, that is what people on extremes cherry pick as the primary backing stat. The West Coast is well over due for a massive earthquake...I can do things to be prepared, but the likelihood is it won't happen in my life time! How can any one make a convincing argument with that if you are 100% convinced the risk is real and unavoidable? The experts say it is going to happen...my belief is 100% that it will happen...Warren Buffett is worried about it...history has showed major earthquakes had devasting consequences...I need to be ready for that generational risk! Cheers!

Feel free to argue with him...but no need for the Blakey poo stuff...especially the "mental health break" biting comment! Cheers!

I agree with the first part. I'm confused by the second part. What fiscal crisis are you referring to? Cheers!

People have been saying that for the last 50 years...that is one hell of a period to be afraid of the stock market. You could also remove that risk by buying stocks in other currencies. And how do U.S. bonds protect your interests...at least U.S. stocks grow faster than inflation...the last 20 years would have been incredibly devastating to people invested solely in bonds or treasuries. Lastly, if the U.S. dollar isn't the currency of choice or collapses, do you really think other economies will be in any better shape? Their currencies will get hammered too. By not investing in cheap stocks and selling them at dear prices for capital gains, you are actually increasing devaluation risk of your portfolio over time. But I think this lesson will be lost on you, as you are 100% convinced that you are correct even though almost every statistic shows you are wrong. I'm not saying you should be fully invested. Only that if you find something cheap, you shouldn't let the fear of an economic collapse deter you from buying that investment until the market revalues it closer to intrinsic value. That's very different than being 100% invested, owning the market, or taking on unnecessary economic risk. Cheers!

History so far has proven that sentiment incorrect. Cheers!

Pretty much! Cheers!

Directly attributed...the number is small. Indirectly attributed through funding of state-sponsored terrorist groups...the number is large. Here you go. Cheers! https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/the-iranian-regimes-decades-of-terrorism-against-american-citizens/

They have different ideologies but it was a marriage of convenience at times and they worked together. Look it up! We all know about U.S. involvement with different organizations...at times they've created many of their own future messes. But to exonerate Iran as some innocent bystander...that's just ridiculously naive and ignorant! Cheers!

The funny thing is, my expense for gasoline is actually far lower this month than any other month in the last 5 years! Why? Because I've worked from my home office almost every day this month! I haven't even used a full tank of gas in the entire month because I'm not traveling an hour back and forth each way to the office. A lot of people that used to work in the city are working from home still. I think as the year continues, clearly higher input costs will hit businesses and prices will rise. I wouldn't be surprised to see a short-term recession before/after Christmas. Many consumers are still struggling and stretched from the Pandemic period and thereafter, and those that were better off and carrying the economy are probably finally starting to feel some pinch. But yes, gas is just much more expensive...no shortage! Cheers!

Yup...fully agree. I think you might see shortages in toilet paper again, before you see shortages in gas! Especially in North America. Cheers!

I think trying to analyze macro or even implementing it into a long-term investment strategy is probably more harmful than beneficial to your portfolio. As an investor, I don't give two shits about inflation, deflation or stagflation. Buy stuff when it's cheap, sell when it's dear, leave the brainiac stuff to those that think they are convinced they are smarter than the markets! Cheers!

You aren't going to see that peak 140M out. That red line will be far lower unless there is a dramatic change in Fed policy since their goal is to maintain a 2-2.5% inflation target. That didn't exist in the 1970's. Matching charts is more akin to reading tea leaves than anything else. Remember, even Fairfax was matching charts on what would happen after 2009...they were wrong because of government intervention and we had a booming stock market for a decade. Theoretically, Fairfax would have been correct without any intervention...but guess what? Cheers!