dealraker

learner he said it was an S & P index.

Yawl jest let me know's when's ta sell my Berkshire and AJ Gallagher...heer? Otherwise I's 'a jest readin' stuff in dis heer one-upin'-one-another doomsday bragging contest on COBF. Actually I'm reading all you guys, trying to come up with some sort of a vote contest to post up so we can look back and see which one, and of course who (that person that gets 10 years of COBF boasting/expert time) gets it right. Remember though, the certainty of it all: This inflation/recession time? It is simply one ahead of next time. Hell, if you are going to worry about this recession - then go ahead and worry about the next few too. They are, after all, absolutely part of the intrinsic value of our favorite stocks here like Alphabet... right? If, of course, that business even still exists "then"... yet something else we m-u-s-t worry about!!! Meanwhile, on the Berkshire/Fairfax "crypto" (really???) forum it seems Bitcoin is a unanimous buy. Ahh, the safety zone! Being silly, nothing but silly.

Lower quotes are old age; you become invisible. Avoid at all costs! LOL, but you can't no matter what the effort.

Without much thought Munger_Disciple for a start there were a few bank stocks in the portfolio that got bought out all the way up to Bank of NC exit in 2017. Had a chunk of that. Explains at least some of the change both lag and subsequent excel.

And one more post, mentioning the thing that matters over time regardless of good...or maybe awful cycles of whatever comes our way to slaughter our cherished quotes either for a few months or maybe years. Here goes: On my multi-lined multi-faceted 100 plus year Securities Research Chart framed downstairs, the damn thing is almost 5 feet wide by the way, is a typed note that I taped in the corner that quotes Buffett saying in the year 2000 that (too lazy to go down and verbatim it) "stocks are overvalued such that it likely exceeds 1928". So I think anyone reading my posts for the last 25 years knows that Berkshire and AJ Gallagher dominate my portfolio/outcome. And since Buffett's quote in 2000 I think Berkshire is up 7 fold and AJ Gallagher is up (counting div's or not either is grand) about 10 times that's 10 times it's 22-and-something years ago value. Yea, stocks were over-valued yet about 9/10th's of my net worth came in those 22 years. AJ Gallagher had spiked in 2000, surely it was over-valued.......right? But at a PE of 20 what did I do? I yawned; I didn't sell. So just like those posting up "We tell all our clients that crypto/Bitcoin has beat stocks..." I have an extreme bias just as strong. The difference is I don't come here telling Greg that he has to buy Berkshire and AJ Gallagher, suggesting that not doing so means "he just does NOT understand" how great this must-own entitiy(s) is that he has missed - thus he's out of it and ignorant of the NEW ERA. I come to get introduced to stuff I am unaware of, and I have gotten precisely that! And my choices, whether luck or skill (I'll sure as hell never know) seem to be working. Time will tell.

Stevie I am posting too much today but read Greg's post again. I am an all 'rounder type, not special at anything. Stuck my nose into seemingly everything, made it unorthodox like. I did obsess over older men and their models (of success), my deceased dad's crowd. I became "them", precisely them. My great nieces and nephews do not want to become their parents, uncles, etc.....as of yet. My guess? That will change.

Individual stocks. It is likely slightly below 13%, maybe closer to 12.5 or so. I have now way of knowing now short of going back to plugging in the contributions that began with $50 a month and then went up towards the 1994 end. I show this to my great neices and nephews. They buy crypto and tell me how "out of it" I am. Think I'm kidding? LOL, they'll learn. They too quote past returns as proof stocks are inferior.

As to buy/hold investing. I worked full time for a salary from 1978 until 1994, I've not worked for $ since. But only towards the end of my work life did I make enough money to fund an 401K. So I contributed a total of $30,000 over the 1988 to 1994 time frame while still in business. I never made over $45,000 working in my entire life. This isn't the money I inherited, nor does it have anything to do with our foray into the insurance business that created what is my largest personal holding the result of merging with AJ Gallagher. This is piddley stock investing from the small contributions to the 401K. But in any event there were no sales of stock in this account ever and it began with a total of $30k to a 401K. I think the return over the entire lifetime is over 13%. I transferred it to Wells obviously in 2011. Buy and hold doesn't have to mean boring or loser as nearly all project it to be. 13% adds up over time. I am simply presenting an example. We have those stating, actually screaming, here to their investors to buy Bitcoin and sell stocks. My reply is, "OK...but I'm not getting poorer holding stocks either." Since Performance Inception +15.27% $126,513.16 +$118,684.57 +$1,033,594.13 $1,278,791.86 YTD +6.59% $1,199,701.17 $0.00 +$79,090.69 $1,278,791.86 2022 +0.81% $1,190,031.46 $0.00 +$9,669.71 $1,199,701.17 2021 +20.59% $986,824.87 $0.00 +$203,206.59 $1,190,031.46 2020 +12.82% $874,655.60 $0.00 +$112,169.27 $986,824.87 2019 +24.56% $702,183.47 $0.00 +$172,472.13 $874,655.60 2018 -1.26% $711,136.40 $0.00 -$8,952.93 $702,183.47 2017 +12.33% $633,078.14 $0.00 +$78,058.26 $711,136.40 2016 +15.75% $546,940.28 $0.00 +$86,137.86 $633,078.14 2015 +0.15% $546,101.43 $0.00 +$838.85 $546,940.28 2014 +19.64% $456,465.26 $0.00 +$89,636.17 $546,101.43 2013 +41.70% $322,142.95 $0.00 +$134,322.31 $456,465.26 2012 +19.51% $269,559.28 $0.00 +$52,583.67 $322,142.95 2011 +16.33% $126,513.16 +$118,684.57 +$24,361.55 $269,559.28 Performance Disclosures and Definitions

StevieV I was referring to either privately owned, I am a part owner of a builders suppy and a millwork business, or public as I own about 250 stocks- although I'm 80 percent weighted in just two stocks. There is no difference as to staying connected/attached to the things that create wealth in capitalism. That said, I do absolutely know for certain that Walter Schloss types and right here Parsad can be successful buying/selling shares of stock. This model is an easier win in tax free accounts of course. I'm just not programmed or capable to do it and as of yet in my life I personally know no one who has gotten wealthy this way...and I know a LOT of wealthy people.

Very likely because I've seen so many cycles from 20% interest rates down to basically zero, inflation from way up in the double digits to whatever it was when lower, I'm far-far-far away from the fears that seem to be geared toward "folks" that just don't know enough. I personally think for most investors, including those thinking they are smart and thus able to maneuvre around thus escaping the downs, that the biggest risk is not being a participant. Again, I know endless wealthy people - to some degree I was incredibly lucky to have lost my parents early and thus forced to get out and about and I had endless connections from both family in political and business positions and ownership. For me I summarize it this way: People who are in business and who avoid crappy endeavors, trendy/silly things...people diversified (to some degree) who stay owners of business? They have ALL the money. People who sell, people who go to cash or skirt in and out of endeavors, and especially older people who go to cash, tax free bonds, or whatever they do to distance themselves from operating businesses? Their family money simply goes away...and NOT slowly. Inflation and spending send it flying away to others. And it really doesn't get much more complex than that--- given a lot of time. And most of you here have a lot of time left. The more direct your connection is to successful businesses the more money you will have over time. My biggest fear is the big boys take away all the good businesses while little people chant "I won" by selling out (at what they thought was great life altering price).

Most likely when chief economists of any political leanings begin speaking in "Cinderella" or "Goldilocks" tongues as in 2007.

Yes. When Berkshire gets left behind by Mr. Market...it is a wave that slams into the beach. I have a friend who plays this wave. He goes in and out of some etf (can't actually remember which) vs in and out of Berkshire. He has done absolutely grand for years in a tax deferred account getting in the high teens returns.

Always remember that in 2001 or so Jack Welch retired and went on CNBC (which GE owned) repeately stating GE's 17-18 percent annual earings gains for years and years to come. Jack was the most respected businessman in the country at the time and most likely he actually believed what he was stating. A few of us had spent years exploring the internals, the actual financial figures GE posted up, and we thought the company was worth zero, that's nothing spelled NOTHING. We wrote, published, and took the endless punches. It isn't an accident or some deep internal personality disorder that causes me to fabulously enjoy Gregmal's posts here. I'm not a cultist type either. But the damn economist prediction crap is nothing but worthless babble. The perfectly obvious screams often. In the early 2000's we had two handsome 35-40 year old men come do an investment seminar in Lexington, the famious little man Jimmy Rogers came. These guys "summary" was that investors should buy bank stocks, no accident given one worked for First Union the other Wachovia. Jimmy Rogers chanted commodities. Our investment club quickly bought more bank stocks, First Union and Wachovia. A couple of us began a long and finally successful "begging" to get the club out, that's OUT, of Kudlow's Ciderella Bank stocks. Was it not perfectly obvious when every single childless US couple was buying 2nd, 3rd, and 4th homes and investment advise always mentioned "beds and baths"? All those dudes - all of them - were wrong, wrong, and more wrong...as usual. Worthless jargon, babbling babble. Head spinning garbage slinging. Harry Dent was raging his expertise too during this phenomenal era or predictor worship. Experts parent ego states laying out musts, oughts, and have to's to followers child ego state. Copy/paste to prove your submission? Not my thing.

Simba...that last paragraph? Correct.

Bitcoin is the need to be free of constraints. Stopping or regulating it just means creating something else.

And lastly as I'm in rant mode obviously... The blast isn't likely to be expected. I think whether it is some kind of extended grid outage or bomb in a populated area - that everyone who can should have cash on hand to last a while...hopefully cash will be accepted (or maybe it will only be Bitcoin). But the "event" isn't likely this most ever predicted upcoming recession of 2023. The market blow-up event will be something you aren't reading long seemingly near panic sounding narrations here about. Life is great...if you can stand it. Prepare to be surprised when you least expect it. Rembember budgets were balanced in the year 2000 and tech stocks were soaring while Buffett was the biggest idiot loser in the history of investing. Jack? Jack was the world's hero...as was Johnny (Chambers) and Ace (Greenberg). All the outcomes of that were expected, right? Kudlow's "Cinderalla Economy" and nirvana for bank stocks? This upcoming recession is the end of the world as we know it and Burry briefly said (before he deleted it) "sell."

If you are a value investor focused on historical valuations, cycles, and the resulting most likely stock prices then surely you'd be selling some things today and adding cash. If you are more business focused and believe - and see easily or clearly - that strong businesses or "good" businesses gain over competition or simply gain when there is less competition hopping onboard (during recessions) - and thus less stock price/earnings focused? Well, it is a sound plan to just hold your interest in the businesses, particularly if you do not own the things that go balistic nuts on the upside during upcycles. I'd sell AJ Gallagher, Lowes, CME, ICE...basically all of them with a GE of year 2000 PE of 45-50. But the growth stocks I own tend to top out in the low 20 pe's and in taxable accounts selling and coming up with new ideas or wating for a re-buy is beyond my ability. "Hey man, I sold it when the PE was 23...waited 5 years and bought back when the PE finally fell to 15...although earnings had doubled." And, "Oh...and one more thing, my fed and state taxes were..." (so I lost my ass on that one). Avoiding lower quotes or staying on a forum where when things fall in price there's an endless parade of "I'm 20% cash" or "I'm 40% cash" or "I'm 100% cash" can get a tad over in envy-ville. I've been on forums now for 30 years reading posters chant up their cash levels. My cash level during all this time? As close to zero as I can possibly get it.

Or is it capital allocation? Somewhere around 35-40 years ago the oldest owner of our builders supply businesses said, "We should sell-out all but the original location, sell all our rental stuff, and invest in Lowe's because they are going to beat the living hell out of us." That's business, the successful version. Wasn't my idea, but man-oh-man have I benefitted from it. We tried to get Lowe's to buy us; they weren't interested. And sell Lowe's when? The bottom? I'll call Burry and ask him.

I recently went around my town and told all the local owners to sell their thriving businesses, join my "business is overvalued" online macro forum, and go to cash chanting fear (and of course grievance of the fed) while repetitively citing the upcoming collapse - most ever forcased downturn. The model states emphatically that we/they will buy all these businesses back in a few months from the new owner idiots when today's trendy/expert fund runners (you know the names....they are posted here every day) vision of Armageddon arrives. That said, 40 years ago Clemo Glosson sold his local large local trucking business for $13 million, the new owner quickly went bankrupt, and Clemo and his son Doug (my age) bought it back for a far lesser amount. Unfortunately it went down yet again under the Glosson ownership after a few years of struggle. And then my family sold the local newspaper to the NY Times, the NY thing was struggling and the small towns were thriving. And...(you know the story!) For the life of me I can't figure this crap out. Life is great...if you can stand it!

Oh not even in the 0.2. Some years ago I looked at CWEB, KWEB, BABA, BIDU (our club did well with BIDU but we sold it early), JD...all the typical ones but just sort of meeked away as is the norm. But I thought NIO as by far the most rediculous of them all and one night with a couple glass of wine in me I made a limit order after Angela said "Boy you need to get some stimulation in you!" LOL. I bought $2500 or so of NIO. Yea, I do know that it went to $60 or so and is back to $10-ish or whatnot. So with CWEB, NOAH, and NIO I'm in the NM category. NOAH is of course just like FANH in that the whims of authority restrictions are forevermore waiting to stamp out any success they deem either too much or hurtful to citizens...or just to be mean.

Also have a very small investment in NIO, one I've had since the stock was a tad over $2 per share. I don't much even think about it.

Deleted my first reply, didn't like wording. Yes UK, correct. Also bought a tad of NOAH which I have followed for about 10 years. I had owned some Fanhua, an insurance agency/broker, but long before Covid they had trouble sustaining a business model because each time they began thriving the gov't would literally step in an forbid such sales. So for years FANH would have cash (and no debt) equal to the market cap and big growing earnings and sell at a single digit PE. It worked out well as an investment but over time the obvious was just obvious - and then I simply got luck not owning it when Covid came. So I'm just messing around trying to stay in the present (as my wife urges me to do instead of just hanging on the long term build in the past things). Its just a tiny-tiny thing, but it keeps me alive and excited.

So let's do another story...seriously LOL. Our builder's supply we refer to as "the lumber company", Lexington, NC...the only private one left there. We put $20k into EMC in 1994-1995 or so, data storage. By 2000-2001 or so the stock had gone from our $20k to $1.2 mil. Yep, and our investment club had $600k of it. Data storage...the chant within the club was: The Internet is just beginning! The Internet is just beginning! Now this isn't the present club I'm fleeing from, this is a sophisticated bunch in the club, average age probably 78 and all had done well in both business and the markets. So, and I'm just right-brained guessing here, the stock at some point had gone from our $1 to $1.50 split adjusted price to $105 per share. Along the way, in the club, I just mentioned at a meeting, "Maybe given no one wants to step up and say "sell" ---- that we should simply just begin to sell like a percentage on a quarterly basis. The club sold a tad in the $90 range, yes we voted to do "program" quarterly selling. But I was told, from older members of the club, "Charlie, you just can't buy and sell stocks you know...there's no way to know when this is all done." But the members voted, just barely, to sell some - again - each quarter. We also owned Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, we'd bought them all at reasonable prices- but of course none were selling reasonable by then and the growth in their industries was simply astounding. At the lumber company? We met and finally someone said, "Enough is enough don't you think?" A sigh of relief came from all of us other 3 who all really wanted to sell but not be 'the one' who made the decisions, we sold all our EMC for about $900k some 6 years after investing $20k. The club? After selling a tad at $90-something, we held the stock. When EMC had fallen from $105 to $35" there was a motion made to "put all the club's money into EMC". Yep, that's how "cloudish" the era was UK, the Internet and data storage was "forever" thus endless profitable growth...right? In the end the club made 15% annual on EMC stock. We sold the majority of it at $7, some 7 times or so what we paid. Data storage? Oh yea, it continued to grow exponentially. Along the way EMC fell from $105 to $7. So my view is very biased. Yesterday while working a crossword puzzle I listened to John Chambers on CNBC. Chambers was on more magazine covers (this is before the web had destroyed most magazines) than any person in history, he was a business GOD at the time. Chambers said, "Yea technology will continue to grow. Some of the big co's will thrive and some won't." Then he says, "At Cisco we had 40% sales growth for 15 years...and then it stopped...and then it went in reverse." That will NEVER happen to the cloud. Never-ever.

UK my guess is that like storage of the 1990's and early 2000's at some point pricing/growth rate/competition makes it literally stop on a dime... ...and reverse. Yep, that's my guess. But my oh my does cloud sell well. Reminds me of the Buffett story: Fisherman walks into a tackle shop and sees an eight colored lure with eight hooks. Fisherman asks the clerk, "Does this thing catch fish?" Clerk replies, "I don't sell to fish." Like everyone else on earth the mystical thought of cloud and cloud growth, just like data storage, makes me want to put everything I have into it. It must have endless growth! It must! It must!

I've thought that maybe I shouldn't post this, I'll be possibly considered off-my-rocker plum lunatic, but... TO HELL WITH BITCOIN! I've got something far more logical! ??????????? Or not. This week for the third time I bought $5k of something symboled CWEB. LOL! I can afford to lose this $15k but there again I don't think I will. Hell, if you are going "China" then go with some ****ing GUSTO! I'd watch CWEB during the China run-up years ago and decided if there was any plunge in the future I'd wait till some uptrend began and step into some CWEB. I've bought three times...this will be one exciting ride.