dealraker

LOL, in my area John...not the brightest of the bunch of characters...we went to a county commissioners meeting recently, my entire family of businessmen went. It was about the use of Covid funds to build a 65 million dollar sportsplex way out in the middle of nowhere. The chairman of the commissioners quickly got overwhelmed and angry with the questions he was asked (he's 3 timer bankruptcy asphalt paving contractor) about this use of funds and stopped the discussion with: "I'm like Donald Trump; I know what's good for you and you are too stupid to know." That works for a lot of people, they want the big boss daddy who knows all to simply life for them (one-stop shopping). We are just down the road from a city that's literally bankrupt from building their massive sports complex...wrong location (like ours). Lots of promises for the economic benefits...down the road..........way down the road. In the meantime several of the commissioners are contractors bidding related to the 65 mil.

+1

Same here.

Surprisingly Wells has really soured in the short run on Brown citing lowest (of the brokers) organic growth. BRO is way-way down on their insurance ranking list for the shorter term. I'm mentioning these reports but to be honest it seems to me there's been more disruption in analysts views on brokers than at any time I can remember. To me it seems they've gone from overly optimistic to a bit too negative. With the exception of the Elliott Spitzer contingent commission era this is the most negative I've seen analysts as to the brokers.

LOL, my blood pressure goes down nicely while doing yoga!

Doing my yoga this a.m. (aka so a 71 years and 7 months old man can function for the day) I watched the interview on CNBC with Larry Fink. Questions kept coming about political things...he of course wouldn't respond. What was obvious? He was so bullish he could barely breathe. Down on outside the US investing, he is seeming near panic level euphoric on the US. Interesting. Note: I do own Blackrock stock - since 2001. Not as bullish, that's little ole me. ;-( Old school valuation guy...and cycle guy...I know - I'm just a fossil.

Wells lines up its overall insurance thoughts often, top ideas in the shorter term. I do not find this very useful however. This will post crazy, just use the symbols as a first choice down to 17. The list goes much further, I just post the top part. For what it is worth, I am absolutely amazed, given the credit card 10% limit thing, that we have not had an executive order on insurance rates, surely the most powerful powerful election adjuster available. I mention that for anyone of any political slant investing heavily in this industry - if you are shorter term stock price sensitive as I could see literally massive stock price movement from such. AON Insurance Broker 1 1 - AON has seen strong organic growth in 2025 which we expect to continue in 2026 and do not think is factored into its current valuation. AJG Insurance Broker 2 2 - Will see a meaningful expansion in geographic exposure from its acquisition of Willis Re, seeing strong organic revenue growth, and now with the accretion from the AssuredPartners deal. RYAN Insurance Broker 3 3 - Recent pullback provides attractive entry point in broker reporting organic growth in excess of the retail brokers. WTW Insurance Broker 4 4 - WTW's valuation should expand as the company continues to post better organic revenue growth and improving margins within R&B. AXS P&C Commercial 5 5 - AXS has taken steps to reduce the volatility of the company, and company is less exposed to property rate declines than other (due to lack of reinsurance business). HG P&C Diversified 6 6 - HG trades at the cheapest valuation among our P&C coverage, yet the shares have less reserve risk (due to loss covers) and are exposed to areas of the market seeing good increases. GL Life Insurer 7 7 - GL's earnings and ROE are steady and predictable, and we think the company has longer-term leverage to GLP-1 drugs that is being overlooked. UNM Life Insurer 8 8 - We think the market is underappreciating both the momentum in UNM's core businesses and generation and flexibility, as well as incremental LTC risk transfers. HIG P&C Diversified 9 9 - HIG should see its valuation expand as the company delivers on its ROE target (which is anchored to 15%). AFG P&C Specialty 10 New Low property exposure and product diversification should enable AFG to see stable margins in a softer market, which is a similar dynamic we saw last soft market when AFG shares outperformed. KNSL P&C Specialty 11 New KNSL's industry leading margins should allow it to remain competitive in a softer market and its proprietary tech stack that enables higher quote / binding ratios should be able to maintain strong conversion even if submission flow slows. With E&S only 13% of total P&C share, KNSL is well positioned to grow its small share of 1.9% in a growing TAM. ACGL P&C Commercial 12 10 Down P&C results have always been best in class in our view and Arch is positioned to be a beneficiary of growth opportunities in the insurance and reinsurance market. Furthermore, mortgage insurance results continue to be strong which results in the company having three businesses that are all positioned to deliver double-digit returns. MET Life Insurer 13 11 Down Consistent earnings profile, strong group benefits franchise, and less macro sensitivity vs. some other life insurers. EQH Life Insurer 14 12 Down EQH is trading at an inexpensive valuation on a consolidated basis and is trading even less expensive after removing the value of its ownership in AllianceBernstein (AB). CRBG Life Insurer 15 13 Down CRBG is a ROE improvement and capital return story as the company is targeting to return 60-65% of adjusted earnings each year and looking to improve its ROE by 300bps over the next couple of years to its 12-14% target. ASIC P&C Specialty 16 14 Down As Ategrity posts strong top-line growth, we expect the valuation of the shares to expand closer to the specialty insurance peer group, which trades at the highest multiples within the insurance sector. RGA Life Insurer 17 15 Down RGA has a solid history of compounding book value per share (especially ex. a pandemic), and shares are trading at an attractive valuation, in our view.

I'll bet civil judgements against ICE will tally hundreds of millions. Let's just state this includes a Good thing.

AON $448 AJG $311 down from $360 or so at one time BWIN $27 BRO $84 down from $125 or so at one time MRSH (symbol changed from MMC) $199 down from $224 or so RYAN $63 WTW $366 down from higher, can't remember the range

For your info or amusement whichever applies: Wells Fargo as I've written is a source I follow as to their reports on insurance brokers. I'd not say I use them for capital decisions as basically I haven't added or subtracted in a meaningful way to the brokers since 1994, but I do read their stuff as it has been reasonably accurate for a long-long time. So recently they have repeatedly ever-so-slightly lowered earnings predictions for the brokers while more significantly lowering price predictions. They have cut AJG, Willis, MMC, but mostly BRO who they see as going through a rough period given the producer turmoil. There's literally massive cuts to the future price of BRO throughout the analyst community, something that hasn't happened ever that I'm aware of. They've raised their view of Baldwin a tad. It is sort of interesting that we discuss what could lessen the success of brokers and it is always outside entities and developments. What seems to be most interesting these days is what is happening within the current business model, maybe a bit of destruction within.

The hosts and commentators disagree. I was simply amused that their view was 100% based on Mr. Market.

You are a Trumper thus being a "scientist" is meaningless.

Mini man Rick on CNBC this morning called the investigation of Powell "perfect" while frat boy Joe as usual railed against his Fed prosecution interviewee stating while throwing his arms up that "the market is going up." The market is going up. Trump walks on water. Actually it is not.

Well over a decade ago I had Angela read COBF posts. She immediately said to me this: "Well, you obviously have two posters setting the climate on the entire forum. How can you even read it?"

Any male with balls larger than a pin head would not have been threatened by the Good lady. I'll bet there are at least a few police officers in that city who have respect for women enough to have thoughts to take the ICE shooter out for a few shots. Perfect idea for Denzel's next The Equalizer. I'd be giving him a standing ovation.

Yes.

As a young man growing up without parents I gravitated towards relationships with older men and for me for whatever reason these interactions resonated around finance. One of the wisest and most successful stock market and small business guys I linked up with said this: "Charlie, you'll make most of your mistakes in the good times." And...I listened decently well to this. Looking backwards and not necessarily using my life but more what I've seen or see I'd say that both buying and selling investments, whether it be stocks or entering/leaving a business, in the midst of a boom period can be the most destructive force as to building net worth. Selling a good business that's maybe slightly over-valued is surely a mistake - but so is buying a not-so-good business that is seriously over-priced and subject to a re-valuation in a less than frothy market. The tax man is a serious interruption of building net worth in a taxable account or entity. I've watched a lot of people go to cash through the years. I've never done that though. The easiest win is buying stocks in a severe down market. But you do need to be willing to see stockhis fall much further than when you bought to eventually come out ahead. Rambling of course. One last thing that I do find interesting about COBF these days, here goes: We often, very often, have numerous investors posting up about how much cash they have and often it is a huge percent of their portfolio. Two or three years ago we had changegunnacome debate heavily with Gregmal about his (change's) massive cash and bonds holdings. Greg of course was 100% correct and change was making a pretty significant miscalculation as related to eventual market levels. Today is probably the least level of what I call "cash posting" I've ever seen on investment forums I've followed. Rambling.

Trump is surely, and I mean SURELY, coming for insurance pricing. How in the world he's overlooked this populist bonanza is beyond me. A MAJOR popularity omission!

Agree. But it is just as much fun to believe and quote Buggs Bunny (aka Kevin Hassett) stating this morning that the oil bigs will be investing big in VZ much sooner than anyone expects.

Angela and I are hiking the Uwharrie's today, beer afterwards in great pub in Albermarle, NC. Meanwhile for those thinking the Supreme Court could rule against Trump's tariffs thus limiting his power? Don't make me laugh. If you want to really increase Trump's dominance then rule against him. That's fuel for his power train. With no one actually willing to stop Trump from anything he does he will march is fat ass right around the Supreme Court ruling, thus making them just like Congress ---- "N/A" -- not applicable. What the Supreme Court should rule is: "What we decide is irrelevant; Trump rules...not us."

Poor Parsad, he's a stable, mentally strong/smart and healthy, and logical human being. Trump complete dominance and popularity makes no sense to him. Anyway, the market is going up. Who gives a shit what Trump does!

Trump has unleashed destruction of the restrictions of the past, maybe...actually surely... something that was inevitable to come. Trump though tends to screw up most things he's involved with but it does take time for his workings to show up. Can someone or some entity with actual plans or goals that do have steady logic gain the power in the future? I think there is great risk today with Trump both with investments and as to the country being hijacked by the least competent and most self-serving. So far investors just love The Donald but they always have in all his workings in the beginning. We are really just one year into Trump having control, just the beginning. The US economy was in a great place when Trump got elected. Endless things were in a terrible place, but not the economy. I think Ian Bremmer does an excellent job in the document I posted of setting the real stage of where we are today. That said, I am literally amazed at the nonchalant way obviously otherwise smart men like Reds view Trump!

Our oldest family member shared this today. Gzeroworld Ian Bremmer. https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:577bd3c3-083e-40bd-babf-40388f7409d3

If all things must run through Trump the issue increasingly may be his control of your capital decisions particularly how profitable he thinks you should be. I am literally and I mean absolutely amazed that he's not come after the insurance industry!

Worth watching related to brokers: https://www.sicafletcher.com/leaders-legends-ed-bowler?utm_medium=email&utm_source=mailchimp&utm_campaign=l-l-podcast-bowler-jan-2026&utm_term=podcast-subs&utm_content=podcast-image