dealraker

My view, always global right brained in a world where left brain details are hotly debated, is that 'to the degree' Trump continues to bomb Iran (and thus to the degree Cubs posts up these happenings here) is a statement as to how weak the Donnie is as to getting out of this situation claiming victory. As I say, the Don throughout his life boldly injects his will and gets his way on projects, and he always gains absolute control. These bold "only Trump can do it" projects don't work out well and then the most predictable part ensues. Trump hits the exit/panic tab and miraculously figures out a way to survive. Others scramble to gather what's left, the messed-up stuff. The media then blasts out the failure story and many think this is the end of Trump's world as he wants it. That turns out to be completely wrong, Trump actually gained status yet again as he's created a vacuum all around him, there's nothing/nobody available to grab on to in order to escape. Then? Down the road to the next Trump escapade we go. Everyone should simply realize and accept that Trump gains through failures because he's made himself the only thing that matters. As I say, it is only important where Trump takes us from here. What he 'did' or the consequences anybody is dealing with because of his endeavors is completely irrelevant. We are off to a new project. Y'all live in Trump-land with me. Enjoy the ride.

I wrote that after reading some scrambled eggs, Roaring 20's or 1970's, from Yardeni. I guess he actually gets paid for these 'forecasts'? YARDENI RESEARCH CHART OF THE DAY (March 26, 2026) We've been betting on the productivity-led Roaring 2020s. That's still our 60% base case. So far, this scenario has been on the money. However, the war has increased the risks of a replay of the stagflationary 1970s (chart). What do you think?

Hey Greg... ...iffin' Trump keeps 'doing stuff' can I please...pretty please...pretty please with sugar on it... ...can I 'predict' higher inflation, or higher interest rates, or a recession...or hell just predict something about the 'economy'? (I don't predict as you know, I'm just asking if you'll allow it or you'd lower the boom on me (us) like you normally do!) Being silly...as you probably suspect LOL!

Reading a historical fiction book by Sharonn Kay Penman titled Lionheart. It is 1191...or is it 2026? When did we say the war would end?

I find it quite interesting that someone or some entity is front running (as to investing) all of Trump's dramatic attacks and retreats and there is a complete blocking of anyone finding about who this is. This sort of thing is the power we've given to the Donald, it is what defines his path for the last 50 years. None of the limits, laws, traditions...nothing held dear in the past is applicable to Trump. It is precisely why he has survived. What makes it so easy for Trump to run over everyone with corruption? What's the psychology? is the question because the psychology is what defines this environment of circle the wagons to protect the President. No one can get traction to un-do it...no one at all even gets close to stopping it.

Trump: "Yo Steven, the 'do something stupid and then chicken out' thing ain't working quite as good nowadays to run Mr. Market higher." Miller: "Remember saying you could shoot people in the streets and not lose support?"

I watched that. Hmm...

We kneel before the almighty Trump, we give him more and more power while falling on our knees with praise. All the institutions and laws we once cherished are abandoned. One man - and one man only - knows all. Only he can do it, we surely can't exist without him. The next disruption will equal or exceed the current one. At some point the majority of the US and world will be simply exhausted from Trump's chaos - endless discussion will ensure as to how and why this shit ever got going and how weak humanity was for not stopping it. In the meantime as I state often: Life is great...if you can stand it!

I'm just trying to predict Trump's next adventure. It will be equally disruptive, actually likely more disruptive. (And just below the scenes if you look you'll notice he and his family will continue getting filthy rich!)

Trump: "Iran is completely obliterated; no military of any kind left, no infrastructure, nothing like this victory has ever happened ever before in the history of the world." Hegseth: "You would't know it if you listened to the dishonest anti-Trump media...but we blew up everything, they are desperate and begging to bargain, pathetic evil losers...there's nothing left of Iran because our military is so dominant." Rubio: "Trump and only Trump won this war decisively, Iran is completely obliterated as the President says." Bessent: "Trump himself, and only Trump has done it, ships are going through...Trump has now provided for safe passage through the Strait for the next 50 years." Interviewer: "So?" Trump: "I need...I am desperate actually... for $200 billion to continue this war or the US has lost."

The more I read your stuff Cubs the more I like you and the harder it comes to even begin to wonder what in heck makes you actually believe this stuff such as Trump is good for the working class. LOL, we have a market of ideas I guess! You have wonderful intentions in many aspects - there is no doubt that.

I'll give the young man an example, given the ole Berk has linked up to it a bit now. Way back in Outstanding Investor Digest days, that the early 1990's I read there about Tokio Marine and Fire. Can't remember exactly who brought it up but the valuation seemed ok and this was the era of "discovery" for me of the Berkshire, Fairfax, Markel, Tokio Marine, White Mountains...etc type business. Yes I'd owned both Berkshire and Markel for some time...by this time. But I didn't know crap about them, a bare minimum of their business models. But on OID I could read in quick layman's terms how these businesses worked and of course I set out in discovery of more stocks to buy. I didn't have much $ to buy stocks, but I did buy anyway. Fees from the buys were crazy high, but while this was true the fees also prevented thoughts of selling because selling of course was equally expensive. But anyway, I've been accumulating this thing call Tokio Marine for 35 years or so. The return? I have no clue, but I bet it is far and way better than fearful short term treasuries, yes multiples of return better. I've brought up Tokio here on COBF, no one replies so I guess it isn't considered anything great. But to me it is yet another good business to own over time. And Blake has a whopping lot of time, decades of it. I'm so envious. His options are endless with near guaranteed success even with financial disasters like Trump running the show. The endless praise of Donnie? So if I'd done as well as Donnie what would my net worth be today? My $47,000 inheritance, and Donnie was inheriting when I did, would likely be about 3 or 4 hundred thousand, and that given his crypto and other escapades of today. That my friends is so pathetic it should make us all want to vomit each time he mentions anything about finance. Instead of good businesses Trump has spent decades intimidating little tax departments and filing nearly 4,000 lawsuits, some 390 or so are active today. All of us can do the Donnie J side show of idiocy, the game of trying to destroy others while not thinking at all about what he wanted to do in business that is legitimate and near certain to make you financially sound over time. Think about the successful real estate people in NY who read Donnie claims of wild success, they laugh their asses off when doing this. Ole deal is on a roll this morning. No one should actually take me too seriously...that is except that if you want to invest with a 100% chance of not failing? Well just own good business. Good businesses all around. And good thinking here on COBF about them. Own business Blake!

Blake, here below is my actually "real" thinking, a guy who has watched the current pres for 50 years coming away astounded at his "business" sense. LOL, I'm 95% invested in "stuff" and have been at that percentage to near 100% since my mom and dad died now some 55 years ago leaving me a little trust fund. Blake you really need to add to your list the absolute fact that Donnie J is financially illiterate, that he will do - as he always does - as much harm to you as he possibly can. That's because he thinks in zero sum ways, that he must gain while others must lose. The man is a walking fucking idiot as to anything financial. He cheats, scams, manipulates, intimidates, basically he runs a side show of corruption parading himself around - the deserter he was - as a true patriot. Trump's "work" on our budget deficit will be legendary, count on it. We have given him far-far-far more power than anyone ever in history. The worst of it will be his financial side, I am amazed that so many even here on COBF are not more fearful of the harm this man will do. But I am 95% invested with the above thinking that "hell gunna come" and dumb shit Trump gunna lead the show. I'd rather be in a good business than in any of the other shit available. People obsess over daily prices, I obsess over not being left out of the good stuff, that be the good business that the other guys owns that I want to own. The years have made me envious of the good businesses. Ole dealraker thinks you too should be envious of those in the good businesses, that this is where the "safety" is. And safety from dumb ass Donnie is of upmost importance!

First river cruise: Amsterdam to Basel.

I think the only thing Trump should fear is Mr. Market. I think Mr. Market owns the economy - not visa versa - and while Trump owns the media and thus all of us I think he would be severely weakened by a lengthy down market - that of course took the economy with it. Right now? Trump knows he can run Mr. Market up to any level he desires with a tweet. That makes him very secure for now.

I find it interesting that you continually focus on the gotcha thing and that a libtard said this or that. To me Greg Trump dominates the media, he owns the narrative on all media and he is literally sprinting past anyone who is out and about trying to say something about something not working. Trump to me is just masterful at his owning the focus and narrative of all media...and thus all of us and what we discuss. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure that many support Trump simply because he can go on an interview and make that setting into anything he wants. It doesn't have to be logical or truthful, nor do the words he dramatically sets out need to be sustained past a few minutes...before an entirely new presentation or direction is dramatically delivered. Yes, if you like a powerful one-source one-man control government then why in hell would you not love Donald Trump? Those that question him, those that say he's not being wildly successful? Hell, they are dismissed, dismissed successfully time after time. Make that argument and watch how irrelevant you are. No, I don't think it is the "media" questioning or condemning Trump that's the main game, I think it is Trump running around with a sledgehammer while little librarian types run for their lives. Trump owns this era; he owns it more than anyone ever! I can easily see why anyone wanting a one-stop-shopping dominant force literally can't get enough of Trump. He's just winging it day-to-day; the man has more confidence right now than I've ever seen him--- and really more than any man/pres or whatever that I've ever seen. We only discuss what Trump wants us to discuss. All discussion, support or condemnation, is nothing but pouring fuel on Trump's dominance.

While we gyrate on what Trump says or doesn't - what he says he says or whatever, just remember we could be here today discussing and arguing the topic of no more wars. Trump could just as easily have his cult chanting "no more wars" and all of us falling in line debating that instead of let's take out all the threats in the world right now. We go where Trump takes us; we discuss what he wants us to discuss; the market goes where Trump takes it that day based on his impulses, his anxieties, his hate, his vengeance. But it is at his discretion what we discuss, debate, and argue about here each day. Iran is already getting stale in my view. Where is Trump taking us next? What will the politics forum be hotly debating? I'll bet you a plug nickel it won't be Iran! (And it won't be files either.)

I disagree. Trump thrives on people's weaknesses, he thrives over-running institutional weakness, he literally has made himself on others weaknesses. Trump has no respect for weakness, but he lives off it. And that is what he is the best at...maybe best ever in mankind actually.

OK, I'm in agreement with your first sentence. But... ...is it really Trump's nature or best interest to resolve things or is it in better for multiple issues - the more the better - to be in progress so that the things he's not keen on doing (real economy, budget deficit, over-spending, files of various types, healthcare costs, etc.) are void of having to be dealt with? Iran for longer?

Cubs I think you've now told us 100 times that Trump has won the war, that we've completely destroyed all things in Iran, and that it is all tucked in a neat orderly victory with absolutely zero cost or consequences...and of course that implies no ongoing unsolved issues. But then time passes and you're still here ranting to us in cute absolutes that Trump is continuously doing miraculous things to win the war - that war thingy that you've endlessly told us was long-long ago already won and finished because nothing remains in Iran. It gets a bit confusing Cubs.

He's going to get bolder and more extreme John, count on it. Covers will be coming, most probably not to his liking. But we all know he creates his own covers, hangs them on the walls and whatnot. The Trump family continues to gain massive wealth. My guess is that a very large percentage of the US would rather the Trump family gain wealth over themselves gaining. Trump has given us others to look down on, others to blame and base our grievances upon, and we perceive that as endlessly satifying. Yes, each day we are grateful that we can get back what was supposed to be ours all along, we reward he and his family every way that we can. Let the news cycle roll, Trump owns it - and has for decades. All attention is good attention. Life....it's great.... ...but only if you can stand it!

So for those who take things too seriously it may help to know that when I saw what Greg had written, when I typed the above...I was laughing so hard to nearly pee in my pants both as to Greg's post and my response. The subtext/satire/actual meaning often ain't what it seems in print!

For 15 years you've termed anyone or any view opposed to yours as liberal gotcha which you and everyone else on this forum knows is an eye roller. Are you emulating Trump to see how far you can take words into the abyss and get away with it? You been introduced to Rand yet? Speaking for John (of course)!

As a neutral thought on Sanjeev's last paragraph, I increasingly find it nearly shocking how much we can, via our media, be focused on some event as if it is life threatening for all of us...and then this issue doesn't change one bit at all...and we get slung to an unrelated event. The old issue that was life threatening is abandoned, completely abandoned...and that is it, its just gone from sight. The new focus may seem equally threatening or just interesting or stimulating...or whatever. But the old focus and fear just dissipates into nothing. It isn't selling as well as the new-new thing, it isn't going to be the focus of the news. And that's why you do not invest based on these things.

I think the issue is that to avoid dealing with outcomes which are never as clear cut as anyone responsible wants to believe, that Trump continually is going to up the ante. It gains him the media domination/attention he needs and craves and it allows him to avoid a media focused on the downsides or consequences of what he's already "accomplished" or maybe better said afflicted on us and others.