dealraker

I think the political commentary on COBF will change during Trump's tenure and won't ever 'get back' to the level of support it is or was at some point.

I had you in mind Reds posting this LOL...just checking your Trump defense (lawyer style) pulse. It's still strong! Being silly. Have a good day.

No matter what Mr. Market's do next week, month, or even year...I expect to see 20-25% down from today's quotes within Trump's reign. I am looking forward to the political commentary at that point. Not that it affects the way I'm invested, I simply think most political posts are greatly affected by recent stock price movements - far more than knowing or even guessing - or even caring about - outcomes of major policy jolts.

Yea he's had a success or two for sure. I think the costs of such are in process of arrival though.

LOL, I didn't have to comment about sleepy's outrageous smoothing and coloring as he already gathered quite the assortment of observing critiques. Anyways, I'm just making sure we keep up with how well Trump's doing these days as we all debate whether he actually has a plan or whether he slings and dings, stabs and grabs, or whatever when he daily comes up with something new, bigger (always the biggest in history), and of course surely better. Last I heard such grandeur pre-Trump was the boys 5th grade bathroom!

Yo Reds... How much did your net worth go up under the forgettable? Isn't it you that relentlessly says, "It don't matter who the pres is."???

Who is the 'Biden' guy? I heard about some sleepy soul long ago... ...but this orange/brown spray painted saggy jowl guy keeps popping up on my screen.

Damn! I thought Trump was the pres but yawl keep suggesting otherwise.

Our media dominating glowering goofball was just a few months ago in bad shape: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/us/trump-finances-crypto.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare And regardless of what our red capper crowd entertainingly believes is the ancient craggy painted-up MAN'S focus - the 'assets' marking the billions in this article are what is going to be top draw for all the help our most powerful leader in history has to give. This dude is self-focused on his economic state as he has been for 60 years, the rest of it is just scrambled eggs distraction and cult persuasion. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/07/02/business/donald-trump-wealth-net-worth.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

In Trump figurine style: https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/administration/5378452-trump-launches-victory-fragrances/amp/

If you haven't watched the HBO and Danny McBride's The Righteous Gemstones - give it a try. You get the most grandiose summary of our popular religious model.

Both men's foundation of success is obsessive cult followings and manipulation of taxpayers and the guv. But as has been the case for decades Trump's cult is far dominant. Musk's 100% financial guv dependency may be his Achilles and this could get very interesting.

I just wanna know who in hell is responsible for Donnie John's face coloring as his oval office condemnation calling Powell low IQ and stupid was quite the brown-out! Beyond the shoulder pads etc they are doing the Biden cover-up given the massive make-over of this fossil's age.

I do belive you can find my post about buying GE some months pre split LOL. I had no clue it would do this well.

I often think back to when I was considering Fairfax as an investment, actually I sort of jumped in quite fast with a bit more than just normal excitement. But in this era I had joined the Lexington Investors Club which was sort of a legendary small town thing where some noteworthy men had started it in 1954 - and the club had done very-very well as to performance. You had to wait for a death to get in and a lot of people wanted in. So I'm all excited and whatnot trying to get these guys to buy things like Brown and Brown (Poe and Brown back then) and Fairfax --- and the members are both not comprehending and even further absolutely not wanting to comprehend anything of the odd-ball stuff that Iittle me is obsessed with. So of course over the years I remind them of their decisions to ignore me and... ...one by one all these guys who could have cared less what the young whipper-snapper (that was me being by far the youngest in the club) was saying are intermittently dying (most lived very long and happy lives) and all producing estates of many-many millions ----- because they owned the Pfizer's and Merck's, GE's... and such ---- on-and-on there were a bunch of those successful companies. And the guy I most tried to convince GE was a terrible investment in the late 1990's has the best record and biggest net worth from investing of all - and he still lives today never selling a share of GE! He probably now doesn't even remember the god-awful "short" 20 plus years. Long live Prem Watsa and businesses like Fairfax. I owned in in the 1990's when it got to 4 times book...and never sold a share. Not a good decision but in the end not a bad one either.

Interestingly the one alcohol co I'm most positive on isn't discussed. I've mentioned it twice, but that only brings the same lame politically biased insults... ...and of course more profits! It was in a different part of the cycle than the rest in the last couple of years. Being a bit silly here and don't take me too seriously. But it was what it was, clearly in a position to be bought.

Lastly Wells on Bro: What else: This follows a wave of consolidation in the brokerage space with all big brokers but WTW in the midst of larger deals. While typically it has worked to avoid investing in brokers bringing on large deals, we believe the narrative has changed given abundance of deals. One source of debate has been whether Accession can get to 43% margin (with synergies) given higher starting point (35%) as synergies (1.1% of revenue and 11.6% of expense) seem reasonable to us and vs other broker deals. Exhibit 2 - Modeled Deal Synergies on Large Brokerage Transactions Deal Savings % of Acquired Expenses Revenue Synergies % of Acquired Revenues Commentary AON/NFP 60 3.5% 175 8.0% MMC/JLT 350 20.7% Modeled dis-synergies 0.0% Savings were initially $250m AJG/AP 100 4.9% 60 2.0% BRO/Accession 130 11.6% 20 1.2% Average - 10.2% - 2.8% -

Wells on Bro 2nd page: Wells Fargo Express Takeaways Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO) | Rating: Overweight | Price Target: $127.00 Analyst: Elyse Greenspan Financials FY (Dec) 2025E 2026E 2027E $ ESTIMATES EPS Q1 1.29 A 1.46 E 1.61 E Q2 0.95 E 1.15 E 1.26 E Q3 0.88 E 1.12 E 1.19 E Q4 0.99 E 1.09 E 1.20 E AN 4.07 E 4.82 E 5.25 E Rev. (MM) 5.88B E 7.39B E 7.84B E FCF (MM) 1,153.9 E 1,747.7 E 1,892.2 E EBIT (MM) 1,688.9 E 2,146.4 E 2,335.0 E EBITDA (MM) 2.06B E 2.65B E 2.85B E Organic Growth (%) 5.4% E 5.2% E 5.0% E WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS Consensus Estimate 4.17 E 4.53 E 5.01 E Difference from Consensus 6.3% 4.8% VALUATION P/E 25.7x 21.7x 19.9x EV/Revenue 5.6x 4.5x 4.2x EV/FCF 28.5x 18.8x 17.4x FCF Yield 3.9% 5.9% 6.4% EV/EBIT 19.5x 15.3x 14.1x EV/EBITDA 16.0x 12.4x 11.6x Consensus Estimate: EPS; Source: FactSet Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate Investment Thesis BRO is looking for 2025 margins to remain at 2024 levels, while they also expect to see low- to mid-single-digit organic growth in a steady-state economy. BRO shares are more attractive as street numbers factor in the accretion from the Accession deal. We rate BRO shares Overweight. Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios $76 $101 $126 $151 $176 Upside Scenario Base Case Downside Scenario * $104.48 $147.00 $127.00 $95.00 *As of 06/11/25 Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset. Base Case | $127.00 • Our price target of $127 is based on a 26.3x multiple of our 2026 adjusted cash EPS estimate. • The 26.3x multiple is a blend of the 5- year average (75% weighting) and the peak multiple (25% weighting). BRO pulled intangible amortization out of its EPS on its Q4 2023 conference call, so historical levels are not comparable. Upside Scenario | $147.00 • Our upside scenario is $147 and assumes a multiple of 30.6x our FY26 adjusted EPS estimate. • The 30.6x is its 5-year peak multiple. • Our upside scenario is primarily valuation based, but also captures the potential for stronger organic and margin expansion, which would likely result in upward revisions to our estimates and price target. Downside Scenario | $95.00 • Our downside scenario is $95 and assumes a multiple of 19.8x our adjusted FY26 EPS estimate. • The 19.8x is its 5-year low multiple. • Our lower valuation multiple is based upon the potential for an economic downturn causing a slowdown in P&C pricing, slower organic growth, and margin improvement falling short of

Note: I post the Wells Fargo notes on the brokers simply because for years and years it has been as accurate as I think humanly possible. Wells Fargo on BRO and acquisition: Insurance Brokers Brown & Brown, Inc. Joining the Broker M&A Party; Updating Numbers for Accession Deal Overweight Price Target: $127.00 Our Call We update our estimates and price target for the Accession deal. Our 2026 EPS goes up by 6%, with 2027 rising by 8%. Shares now trade at 21.7x our 2026 EPS estimate and are more attractive with the accretion coming from the deal. 2026/2027 estimates and price target go higher: Our 2025, 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates go to $4.07, $4.82 and $5.25 from $4.20, $4.52 and $4.85 incoporating Accession deal. We assume 5% growth in revenue each year and build in revenue synergies starting in 2026 (tying to BRO's guide); our accretion broadly ties to what we outlined post conf call (note). 2025 goes down to incorporate in financing costs prior to deal close (assume mid Q3 close). Price target to $127 (from $125) on ~26x 2026 EPS. Overall view on the deal: This deal gives BRO greater presence in the middle-market in the US. Further, they got a good price (15.4x adjusted EBITDA and 12.3x when also including synergies) and will see the transaction immediately be accretive to EPS (there is modest dilution in 2025 as they raised the financing and are waiting for the deal to close and also said most of the synergies will come staring in 2026). The deal will close pretty soon (expected in Q3 2025) with BRO already clearing HSR. Comparison to prior broker large deals: Below we show how BRO deal compares to recent large deals announced by AJG, AON and MMC. AJG is paying a lower multiple for AssuredPartners but has a lengthier regulatory process due to second request from the DOJ and has pushed back its deal close from Q1 2025 to Q4 2025. BRO's multiple is higher than AJG but lower than those paid by MMC (for McGriff) and AON (for NFP). The Accession business is running at a higher margin than others, prior to synergies. Exhibit 1 - Comparison Of Large Broker Deals AON/NFP MMC/McGriff AJG/AssuredPartners BRO/Accession Date Announced 12/20/2023 9/30/2024 12/9/2024 6/10/2025 Date Closed 4/25/2024 11/15/2024 Expected Q4 2025 Expected Q3 2025 Price Paid $13.4B $7.75B $13.45B $9.825B Financing $7B Debt, $6.4B AON Shares $500M Cash, $7.25B Debt Cash, Debt, $8.5B Equity $5.3B Equity, $4B Debt, Cash Revenue $2.2B $1.3B $2.9B $1.7B EBITDA $600M $350M $938M $600M Revenue Multiple 6.1x 5.6x 4.3x 5.4x EBITDA Multiple 22.3x 20.7x 13.3x 15.4x Year 1 Accretion Dilutive Modestly Accretive 8.5-10% 5-8% Year 2 Accretion Breakeven More Meaningfully Accretive - - Organic 6% Not Disclosed 6% Similar to BRO Margin 21.6% 26.9% 32.3% 35.0% Synergies $235m over long-term None Disclosed $160m over 12 months $150m over 3 years Source: Company reports and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Valuation more favorable post deal: BRO shares are trading at 21.7x updated 2026 number (versus 23.9x on Monday using our old EPS estimate) and 16.2x on an EV to EBITDA basis versus 17.5x before. The accretion from the deal makes the shares seem more attractive relative to historical levels (5-year average price to earnings multiple is 24.9x with a high of 30.6x). The combination of the move down in the shares this week plus the accretion from the deal makes the valuation screen more attractive. Notable Changes $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg Price Target $127.00 $125.00 1.6% EPS 2025 4.07 4.20 -3.0% EPS 2026 4.82 4.52 6.5% Rev. (MM) 2025 5.88B 5.20B 13.0% Rev. (MM) 2026 7.39B 5.53B 33.8% Ticker BRO Upside/(Downside) to Target 21.6% Price (06/11/2025) $104.48 52 Week Range $88.31 - 125.68 Market Cap (MM) $29,777 Enterprise Value (MM) $32,926 Average Daily Value (MM) $221 Dividend Yield 0.5% $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY EPS 2025E 1.29 A 0.95 E 0.88 E 0.99 E 4.07 E Prior NC 1.01 E 0.97 E 0.93 E 4.20 E 2026E 1.46 E 1.15 E 1.12 E 1.09 E 4.82 E Prior 1.40 E 1.09 E 1.04 E 1.00 E 4.52 E 2027E 1.61 E 1.26 E 1.19 E 1.20 E 5.25 E Prior 1.50 E 1.16 E 1.11 E 1.07 E 4.85 E Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset. NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate Elyse Greenspan, CFA Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Hristian Getsov Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Nicholas Annitto Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Westar Zong Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC AJGpopup Action for symbol AJG in account SINK CMA-Edge 5F4-17Q83 GALLAGHER ARTHUR J & CO 62,500 $318.06Last updated at01:28 PM ET -$2.09 -0.65%

AJG is my largest holding, held since 1994: AJGpopup Action for symbol AJG in account SINK CMA-Edge 5F4-17Q83 GALLAGHER ARTHUR J & CO 62,500 $318.06Last updated at01:28 PM ET -$2.09 -0.65%

Prior to the above: 04/25/2025 Buy 1,000 AONPopup AON PLC SHS CL A @ $330.7950 Aon is the broker I have the least of but the fall after earnings may have offered a decent price. I also bought Wyllis again: 04/25/2025 Buy 500 WTWPopup WILLIS TOWERS WATSON PUB LTD CO @ $297.7850 These are stocks I plan to hold.

Just following the 30 year model LOL! My first BRO shares are 31 years held now. 06/11/2025 Buy 1,000 BROPopup BROWN AND BROWN INC COM @ $103.6850

Every scam increases Trump's following and popularity.

Yawl missin' the most exciting news... I do believe Elon got down on his knees last night beggin' fer forgiveness!!!!????

Who the heck knows????!!!! My wife sent it to me from the other side of the kitchen laughing so hard she could barely stand it-- but she's laughing in sum of all the fun things she and her friends are passing back and forth related to Elon/DJT. I've got to stop now...Parsad's gunna give me a deserved shucking.