Libs

I loved this guy's work. He was a tough guy off the screen, too. I recall him going after a wayward driver with a golf club back in the day! https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjm9ndw9xeeo

Ha, that was me. Surprised any one remembered! It was March 9, 2009 as I recall. The bottom. Buffett had been on CNBC that morning, at 4 AM PST, coming as close to endorsing a stock as I'd ever heard. It was WFC. He said, "Wells is interesting at 3X (or whatever it was) pre-provision income. " Words to that effect. I'd been studying the stock and that was all I needed to hear. Cleared it with the wife and went all-in at $10. Sold it at $50 a few years later. I'd say Buffett is 80% responsible for my net worth, for reasons Parsad cited. Wabuffo is probably 10%, LOL.

1.7 MM is the latest 2025 estimate from the most accurate analyst I follow (Troy Teslike). And that number has been dropping.

For those of us paying over 40% on every marginal dollar we make (over 50% when you include CA taxes), let us know when it's enough. The deficit is not because the rich don't pay enough.

https://brusselssignal.eu/2025/02/europe-checkmate/ A sobering assessment of Europe's position. Would be interested in others' opinions on this article. Too dour?

Yes sir, still running my RIA and loving it. Why would I retire.....

I have also beaten the S & P over a very long period, 25 years now. By about 3% a year. Otherwise, I suppose my wife could logically insist we go the index route, and I'd have to go along. BTW, every so often beating the S & P is a cakewalk, if you care about valuations. 2000-20003, for example. And I suspect we are entering a similar period now.

< I think even if some Genie could guarantee some high annual compound return by going 100% index fund but the only caveat is you can never research companies or make another investment again I'm not sure I would take it.> Holy cow, you just read my soul there....I just realized I feel the same way. There's no way I can ever give up 'the game.'

Thanks GFP. After reading this I'm more comfortable with Abel running things.

Didn't Buffett kind of freeze up when the GFC hit too? Yeah, he cut some nice 10% GS - type deals, but they were small, and he later admitted, IIRC, he used a thimble instead of bucket? Found the quote from the 2010 letter: Buffett recalls that last year’s letter called corporate and municipal bonds “ridiculously cheap” compared to U.S. Treasuries. And we says Berkshire did “back” that view by making some purchases, but “I should have done far more. Big opportunities come infrequently.”

Agreed......a good investor's advantage is in temperament, not in the above. Buffett is dead right about that. An obvious example is: feeling euphoric, rather than fearful, when the market plunges. This is the opposite of the typical reaction. But it's where the money is made. You don't need to have cash either, although that's nice. You can just sell dollar bills for 75c and buy other dollar bills for a 25c when stocks are washed out. (BTW I'm kind of shocked to hear people on this board write that stocks were uninvestable in 2011, 2012. Good Lord. They were cheap, even 3 years after the 2009 washout and subsequent run-up. ) In summary, don't let macro stuff influence you. If you found a great local business you could buy for a steal, would you hesitate because of anything going on in the world today? Same with stocks. Not saying this is easy for everyone, BTW. Maybe you have to be born with it. Buffett implied as much.

How does this work from a tax standpoint? I was gifted 7 one -oz gold pieces from my mom. Does the dealer cut me a check and issue some sort of 1099? Is the basis my mom's basis? Sorry to muddy the thread

TSLS

Post of the year.

Wild stuff. Sure feels toppy...... https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/12/teen-creates-memecoin-dumps-it-and-earns-50000/

Grifter indeed. The more I hear Buffett invoked by a money manager, the more skeptical I am. Meanwhile, Mark Leonard walks the Buffett / Munger walk without mentioning their names. These are the people to hitch your wagon to....in the same way honest people never tell you they are honest or say 'trust me.'

Wow. That speaks volumes.

https://brklyninvestor.com/2024/11/06/cash/

Well done GFP.

I'm in, seems like a good trade. Thanks for the idea.

Highly recommend this Waymo discussion thread. Some really good insight IMO. https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/waymo.208830/page-229 BTW - took a Waymo ride in SF last month. It was great. It's pretty surreal to be driven around that way.

Phenomenal. Thanks.

You make some good points but I can't help reflecting that if Churchill had been this wise and pragmatic, England would have cut a deal with Hitler in 1941 to stay out of the war. The pressure to do so was almost overwhelming. But Churchill knew it would only buy time, and Germany would basically own England once it completed its other goals. Ukraine being 'pragmatic' at this point probably means slow suffocation and eventual extermination by Russia. But this move into Russia could change the equation. It makes Putin look really bad to his countrymen. I can't fault Zelensky for this action. I find it inspiring.

Interesting idea. The TLT puts are cheap. What are these seasonal factors?

I've read the Koran. With all due respect, it's an endless, bloody diatribe against non-believers. It's miraculous only a small % of Muslims take it at its word.