Spekulatius

With Trump acquiring Greenland it means that Trump acquires it for the US. no, I don’t think that Trump could acquire a country as a personal property . It’s. 10c on the $ bet and I actually think I put some money being it because the odds are higher. if anyone thinks that is ridicolous, then tell me why Trump keeps talking about it:

Nobody will say it out loud, but these century bonds are designed to default. I think most countries are better off just accepting the tariffs and countering likewise with tariffs of their own It will be a tough transition but eventually, the importance or the US market will be reduced as the US economy becomes insular and the tariffs wall leads to US products becoming less competitive. The US service industry will be forced by foreign nations to create independent subsidies for national security reasons to continue to operate and have access to local markets. Thats similar to how defense business or utilities operate under foreign ownership in the US and elsewhere. Probably not great environment for stocks, but if you think about the likely range of outcomes, you really want to own foreign assets obviously.

There is a bet for this - 10c on the $. Seems low to me. https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-acquire-greenland-in-2025?tid=1742067823805

So what’s the interest rate on the 100 year zero bonds? Should be fairly high if you try to sell a lot of this paper. I am confused that those 100 year zero coupon bonds get treated as if they don’t pay interest but zero coupon just means the interest compounds. I don’t think the USA providing protection is credible any more after what happened in with Russia anyways. The US put Article 5 in question in a military alliance and now other countries should believe that they are protected because they signed some sort of trade deal? Thats just not credible. Or does protection mean a Mafia racked that they won’t burn your house down if you don’t pay. On putting yourself in a box why would you do that, because Trump says so? And everyone who doesn’t do anything will be an enemy? Sounds like the USA will have a lot of enemies in short order. I think the end result is that the US is becoming a trade and political island at best and a imperialist force at worst. This thing is quite a political project

Greenland is no joke for Trump and I think he is going for it. This could be the final straw ripping NATO apart. It’s one of his projects that he started during his first presidency but didn’t quite pull off and people thought it’s a joke, but it isn’t. If it happens, it will matter if you are invested in NVO etc. As for bird flu, we should just vaccinate the chickens. Other countries are doing it. It will greatly reduce the problem in a few months.

I actually don’t find the clip interesting and barely understand what she is saying. What I do know is that “woman ranting/complaining/ whining in a car” is a real things now. Mostly they are using pretty good nice makeup. So I think they are mostly clickbait. There are much fewer shorts of men complaining in car that’s a for sure. The interesting thing here is the comment section. The reposter here already reveals his bias with “ American citizen”. Would it matter if she were just a legal resident? So he is MAGA. Another comment : Rental prices are a result of illegal immigrants etc (MAGA) Why does she go to churches etc (Christian conservative ) Toughen up….Get a roommate (average guy) Mega evil landlords fault (Right or, left winger, hard to tell) Blackstone bought all the homes and apartments ( left winger) Get a husband, there is no shame in being a stay at home housewife (my favorite - lonely guy - Joe Rogan listener ?) So make of it what you want. The story is whatever your wan it to be.

If you sell something in a taxable account to realize a tax loss and then buy the same stock at the same time or <30 days later in a tax deferred account, you violate the wash sale rule. The IRS is probably are not going to catch it but if they will you will pay taxes and fines. I am not sure why you think that taking a gain in tax deferred account violates a wash sale rule.

Anyone is willing to bet if the federal deficit this year will be larger or smaller than last year? I think it will be larger.

Or like the Polish Himars without launch codes. Apparently US weapons are subscriptions that can be canceled at any time by the seller. The Ukrainian troops have pulled back from the Kursk salient. Maybe Trump should read his security briefings every once in a while.

Loss of US military support and “user fee” is laughable. That would be paying for nothing. I think the USD will probably depreciate all by itself when the US becomes a trade island and stops being the reserve currency as a consequence. In my opinion we cant have both at the same time.

Comment section is interesting. Everyone sees what he want to see.

We are just down ~20% from the peak, straight in middle of the 52w trading range, it’s not much of a correction. I think correction is >20% down from peak isn’t it? A 10% decline happens about every year. I think we might see a technical bounce but I don’t think this is exactly a great buying opportunity quite expensive. You can alway find cheap stocks so if there is an indiscriminate selloff.

The same thing exists in larger corporations as well, albeit not quite as pronounced. I also don’t have dipshit friends that work government jobs. Typically the excess budget stuff are not lunch parties etc but Capex stuff that wasn’t spent because if you spent your budget in September and then something breaks that is sorely needed there would be no money to acquire it. I have seen similar things happening in companies I worked for.

He also looks terrible. Wouldn’t be a surprise to me if he didn’t make it to age 60.

If pyramids get too heavy enough, heads will roll. Maybe not in a literal sense any more, but the US in the late 19th century almost became an Oligarchy with the Rockefeller, Morgans, Carnegies. The backslash from this was regulation and Antitrust to take three empires apart. I think we are getting close enough for. second helping of this. It’s been more than a hundred years.

Trump has declared more national emergencies than I can count. That would be a touthless rule.

Interesting articles regarding subs. I think the US muscled out the French for this sub contract (cost overruns with the French program didn’t help) but will Austrian ever be the subs and if so when. Could be 2040 with some timelines I have seen because the US shipbuilding industry isn’t in a great shape to produce ships or subs https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/trump-pick-for-pentagon-says-selling-submarines-to-australia-would-be-crazy-if-taiwan-tensions-flare I think it’s possible that Australia changes their mind again.

The US spend 3.8% of GDP on defense. Take out welfare program in the defense budget (~$100B veterans care, support for military families) and its ~3.5% give or take. Thats more than most other NATO members. However, what percentage of the US military is actually associated with NATO the North Atlantic theater? Total US troops in Europe are ~65k. The US has ~50k soldiers stationed in Japan and more than 25k are in South Korea. Those are not NATO theater. The Pacific fleet? Nope. National Guard? Nope. So maybe 2-2.5% of the US spending is really around NATO , the rest is associated with other goals. The NATO mission statement is solely aligned North Atlantic defense only. To really drop the defense expenses, the US needs to drop their far reaching goals like winning an extended conflict anywhere in the world against anyone. Thats not a NATO mission statement and no other Nation within NATO has any far reaching goals besides defending their border other than maybe the UK. Needless to say that’s why Europeans have spent less on defense. Now that’s changing because they have barbarians at the border (Russians) that even worse the US has aligned themselves with. So it clear that the US is not aligned with Europe in terms of defense any more and NATO in the context of a Russian thread is worthless which likely lead to an European defense alliance ex USA. This also means that Europe will need to obtain its own nukes.

The boycotts to Disney and Bud were child’s play compared to what is happening with Tesla. I think we could be seeing 50% down on deliveries. Several European counties are ~75% down on deliveries. I mean Bud was all about an ad of a Trans Dylan cracking a beer. Elon involvement here is on another Galaxy. I don’t think that Trump doing a Tesla car sales event on the White House lawn is going to help much. Starlink will slow take significant damage but less so than Tesla, imo. The issue for foreign users is security.

Biden did not rip up any trade agreements from the first Trump administration. USMCA stayed intact, the China tariffs remained and were even added to later. Tell us any trade agreement implemented under Trump that Biden ripped up.

They both should be lower now because the tariffs are now an unfortunate reality. The economy looks worse too.

I think this was similar to what was on the table a while ago and rejected by the Russians. I would be surprised if the Russian agree to this now. Fingers crossed.

Yep, the “Radical left wing Lunatics”, as Trump calls then, are the predominant Tesla customer. So I don’t think Trump‘s “endorsement” is going to help much. I also noticed another little thing - Starlink is now running ads on X. Just another case of conglomerate synergies in action.

Welcome back. Keynes works until it doesn’t. The European economy has slack, so I think it will work.