Spekulatius

Bought some $PNC. I felt like the results were solid.

I wonder of the best way to play commercial RE are the brokers and leasing service providers like JLL, CBRE and maybe lower quality CWK. I also looked at NMRK but can's live with their shady (imo) accounting adjustments. JLL looked pretty cheap but CBRE seems to be the highest quality. With those service providers, you don't need to bet on a certain class of RE and even if office goes down the tubes, they will eventually have to figure out what to do with all these buildings at which point these brokers will get involved. Does anyone have an opinion on these RE brokers ?

It's for both, the condenser and the coil at the heating unit (which seems to be leaking water or there is an issue with the pan holding the condensed water). I think one issue that there has been some code change pertaining to the vent duct work that needs to be replaced (PVC not allowed any more) even though that particular quote is fuzzy on this matter. This might explain some of the jump in price from 2022 to 2023.

OT - On the matter of inflation, here is one datapoint regarding HVAC (replacement of an existing condenser with a new one) 16 SEER rating 3 ton unit. 2020 quote -$4560 2022 quote - $5552 2023 quote - $8296 Again same contractor, same exact unit, same scope of work. I am aghast about the 2023 quote and hence got quotes from different contractors, but the price is in a similar ballpark (I can get it a few hundred $ cheaper around $8k). Hitting myself now for not replacing it in 2020 when it had a minor issue (rotor). Now the unit went (is loosing refrigerant and leaking water in the water exchanger, so it has do be done. Probably should have bought CARR and WSO....

A German minister on DW/ TV poured cold water over that one and stated that Macron's diplomatic adventure was not sanctioned by Germany or the rest of the EU for that matter. He has embarrassed himself.

I use Capedge for alerts. It is free. Other than that, I use various watchlists in brokerage accounts, Tikr (paid) and yahoo finance.

The acute phase of the energy crisis is over, but there still is a chronic phase. The biggest issue I am seeing is with the French nuclear generation fleet - it has been operating at only 50% of capacity at time, straining the European power grid. The French nuclear generation fleet is aging and needs lots of preventive maintenance in the short term and replacement investment in the long term to keep it going. France also underinvested in wind energy, they could do more on that end.

This is exactly my plan.

The ambulances (mostly PE owned) that are not in any health care system and can charge whatever are one of the biggest and most obvious rackets there is. That is one where legislation should come down hard. As a shareholder, I am terrified when one of my holdings announces an acquisition from private equity. Most of the time, those business have been dressed up for short term performance and they command high multiples. It is hard for any acquirer to make those acquisitions work.

Maybe there is so much violence in the US because everyone here is an immigrant. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense. On @mcliu chart, I think Russia has found a way to clear out prisons that we might want to think about as well. Sending some to Ukraine to fight the Wagner gang. I just would be careful about taking them back.

I think I wait 3 more month after the reset to redeem mine (lose interest for the last 3 month) and then probably move to ST treasuries.

@Gregmal no disagreement here. SF is a dumpster fire and in but in a way it's is relative. SF used to be a safe city - heck I even went out with my wife in Tenderloin in the evening a few times about 20 years ago. Do this now and you might get mugged or worse. I did post a couple of years ago about a story in NBC where and elderly lady ( a friend of my inlaws was stabbed by a loonie for no good reason in bright daylight. Had friends who were travelling and got their rental car smashed and robbed at daytime in a busy shopping center parking lot in the North Bay area (Rohnert Park). The police pretty much told them that they don't pursue these property crimes any more. At some point, people are going to wake up and elected somebody who actually does something. SF is already pretty close. Right now, they still have boiling frog syndrome.

Did anyone find one bonds worth looking at. With the crash in CRE bonds, that may be the way to invest about this. Supposedly, there is some double digit debt out there. Maybe Reit debt ? FWIW, I think WFH is a bubble that pops in the next recession. I think it’s already happening as I write this. Even though, hard to not see a 20% surplus of office space that eventually need to be converted to other uses though.

Let’s keep in mind that even with all the crime in CA, the homicide idea rate in Nashville for example is ~2x the homicide rate in SF. Both cities are of comparable size- SF has 815k people and 56 homicides. Nashville 693K residents and 102 homicides or roughly 2 x the rate. Thats with all the increase in homicides in SF last year. Memphis TN, is worse than Nashville even. Just one example where you have to be a bit careful with the narratives. The increase in crime in SF is very real, but it’s still much safer than Nashville, or the popular Miami (440k people ~50 homicides).

There are probably less Neo Nazis in Ukraine as a percentage of population than in the US or Germany for that matter: In the 2019 Ukrainian parliamentary election the coalition of Svoboda and the other extreme-right political parties in Ukraine―National Corps, the Governmental Initiative of Yarosh, and the Right Sector―won only 2.15% of the vote combined and failed to pass the 5% threshold.[5][6] No far-right parties gained seats in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament), as they all failed to win any single-mandate constituency seat.[6]

I think there is a good amount of deception going on, especially when you keep in mind that the first Kharkiv counter offensive mostly surprised the Russians. I do think the Ukraine counteroffensive probably starts in the next 4 weeks. The next few month certainly are the sweet spot, because the Russian army is about to burn through the first wave of 300k recruits from last fall, given their current attrition rate. Putin made the mistake to hold off too long on the second wave of recruitment, which just about to get started and too late to plug holes in the frontline, if Ukraine indeed starts their spring offensive soon. Russia needs at 300k of recruits annually just to maintain the status quo on the frontline, given their likely "consumption rate".

I think Saul himself is still up 5x from 2016 even with the ~70% drawdown from peak, but his performance probably beats virtually anyone out here. It’s the Johnny come lately that have been whacked.

I am old enough to remember Tupperware parties too, but I think this brand is in a slow terminal death spiral. Also, it’s just my guess that Pampered Chef (which was supposedly bought for ~$900M in 2002) was a bust too. Revenue estimates differ and seem to be in the $200-$350M ballpark which is not a good show for something bought 20 years ago for $900M.

yes, the big advantage of buying a broad based index fund is that you don't need to worry about survivorship bias - the reshuffling of the index takes care of this for you and it is included in the annualized results. If you build your own portfolio, especially when running concentrated, you need to think about how to take care of losers.

@vinod1 Europe is a real bargain currently - not just food. You can buy a chalet in France for the same price you pay for a cardboard Mc mansion in Florida. Crazy.

Sauls investing Forum is and interesting place. It‘s a no holds barred approach to growth investing, where they try to find the companies with the highest sequential topline growth momentum, regardless of valuation or even profits metrics. They also try to exit at the slightest sign of growth waning, before the larger crowd does. It was wildly successful from 2016-2021 and attracted many followers and copycats but now seems to have fallen completely apart. https://discussion.fool.com/t/sauls-portfolio-end-of-march-you-may-not-recognize-it/90807

New weekly deposit numbers are in from the FRED. Small bank deposits are stable, large bank deposits keep slowly dropping (~$40B over the last week). Cash sorting probably.

In retrospect FCNCA was the stock to buy. I didn't - I know this bank a little but didn't feel i know enough especially with them digesting already one merger beforehand.

Went though $KEY's 10-K. There is some interesting disclosure on their interest rate swaps here. looks like they lost ~$2B on those - in addition to losses on securities. They have a bunch of swaps where they receive fixed interest rates and pay variable ones. Ouch. For reference, their regulatory equity Capital is about ~$15B.

$LUV and $AAL EV/S over the last 10 years: