Spekulatius

Walmart told to eat the tariffs . Doesn’t sound like a yummy idea when you are in the single digit profit margin business and the Chinese obviously don’t like to eat them either. Same with Amazon while ago. Seems like we are getting closer to run our economy like Xi Jinping. capitalism as long as you do in a way that pleases the chief. https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-walmart-inflation-import-taxes-e2012e0d9e242b0be0b9474aa58d41fd

I was bout to post the same thing, In this iffy situation, taking a small 10% win makes no sense, imo. You can easily lose 3xas much in a single day, given the situation. You need to set up yourself for 50%+ gains or limit you losses with a smart option strategy.

I think the history and what they do is not a mystery when you just go to the Wikipedia site. Cuscal is a payment service business that was mostly owned by banks and credit unions. Those tend to be not profit optimized and good setups for IPO’s - see Mastercard and Visa when they IPO’d. Thats basically why I bought some shares even though I am hardly an expert on the business.

Putin didn’t even show up, sent his C-team. This was predictable. He doesn’t want peace, he wants the entire Ukraine by outlasting the west. He knows that it doesn’t take much to outlast Trump for sure.

Belated answer, it I think the Europeans want to do what the Chinese did. 1) force local investment and encourage joint ventures with Chinese auto makers 2) those joint ventures automatically lead to tech transfer, possibly enabled by contract real language too This is basically an acknowledgement that the European auto makers are not competitive in EV and an attempt to change it. The alternative is to seal of the EU borders from Chinese EV it when exporting cars world wide in part of your business model, how is that going to work? I think there is a risk that this doesn’t work out, but is there really and alternative? I think we will find ourself in America with an uncompetitive auto industry if we continue on the current path. The chicken tax on trucks brought us the $100k Dodge Ram and F350 etc. Consumers pay for it dearly.

Re Cuscal - is anyone invested in this? I bought some of this busted IPO around tariff day and the stock has done well. Unique Australian payment infrastructure and fintech play. I am getting some Visa / Mastercard vibes post IPO. Wish I had bought more. .https://ir.miraqle.com/DownloadFile.axd?file=/Report/ComNews/20250326/02928953.pdf

I found their cement buy 5233 more interesting.

Solid results, especially FCF, but Unidata’s growth has slowed down: https://investors.unidata.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Il-Consiglio-di-Amministrazione-ha-approvato-il-Resoconto-intermedio-di-gestione-del-Gruppo-Unidata-al-31-marzo-2025.pdf They have been involved more and more in infrastructure projects that can lead to more lumpy numbers.

Overall tariff are still up EVEN after the rollback. Tariffs for China are up from ~20% to 30%+, we have tariffs on many Mexican and Canadian goods , Aluminum, Steel, lumber, soon to be followed pharmaceuticals. Those are substantial increases that will put pressure on prices.

I am not sure about what is happening on Syria, but lifting sanctions does not mean we deliver tons of aid or weapons. Lifting sanction means we give them a shot, not more and more less and I think that’s the right approach.

Selling SIMO and CX as they rebounded nicely from the tariff fall.

I agree on Syria- give the new regime a shot. You can always put the sanctions back on if it doesn’t not work out.

One of my Holdings A&D Holon 7745 just announced results and they are pretty good: https://andholon.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/holdings_tanshin_20250513_en.pdf Their semiconductor business is very profitable (e- beam mask inspection systems ) and the worst isn’t bad either. trades at 1.2x book and ~8x earnings while growing. Their financials have improved a lot the last few years so they can and should buy back stock, imo. They are raising dividend for now. Fr disclosure, I sold 4369 Furo because I was disappointed by the forecast for 2025. The numbers for 2024 were pretty good and exceeded the forecast a bit, so maybe they are lowballing. In any case, I take my moderate win here.

Reduced some positions MEGACPO, V, NNI, RTX, VNT in tax deferred accounts . Sold UNH at a loss (pre market when bad news came out). Bought some of it back later the same day. Raising some cash.

Another deep seek moment, just like with the Huawei phone a year ago, Deep Seek LLM, semiconductors, EV’s, space program, passenger planes now fighter planes. The list gets longer… The Chinese are way past copying western products.

The business deserves to exist because nobody seems to be able to do it better. Demographics will lead to higher health care expenses everything else being equal. UNH is an healthcare insurance business and that has been tough for the last 2 years, as peers have suffered too (CNC, HUM, ELV). Costs have been rising faster than premiums and that won’t continue forever, just like other insurance markets they will adjust. So I think UNH and other health care will see margin mean revert.

Even de mini is (which is a legit concern and real loophole) exemption is back in exchange for China not cancelling. Boeing orders. Looks like total capitulation. Then bond yields are moving up again too, probably due to large expected deficit. So much winning… I think Trump fell into a trap rating the tariffs so much that no adjustment was possible. If he had raised by 10% and threatened another 10% by year end the economy would have time to adjust and it would have been fine. Instead he played a lousy poker game and didn’t feel like he has the cards when the other party raised the stakes too. Will be interesting if the EU does use a similar tactic, but they would need to be willing to take some pain as well, which isn’t a given. https://www.investors.com/news/technology/amazon-stock-meta-stock-de-minimis-trump-temu/

Now we know why UNH has been so weak: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250513712025/en/UnitedHealth-Group-Announces-Leadership-Transition

Total imports were ~$3.4T in 2024 without tariffs for the most part. If you assume some offset/exemptions and import reduction at a 10% tariff rate and assume $2.5T in imports, I don’t think more than $250B in tariff income are realistic.

Who preventing a corporate or federal purchasing manager / buyer from asking for kickback or a cashier from taken their fair share from a cash register. After all it’s just a “business transaction” . The whistleblower agency has been defunded and the foreign corruption act watered down: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/pausing-foreign-corrupt-practices-act-enforcement-to-further-american-economic-and-national-security/ Sounds like it’s free for all with our president leading the charge. Let the golden age of fraud and embezzlement begin.

Looks like US tariffs are going to be rolled back completely to prior liberation day status. China keeps 10% tariffs on US goods, which makes many exports like soy beans and LNG etc still uncompetitive. https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/us-china-tariffs-trade-talks-trump-05-12-25 This is just a 90 day “cease fire” but still looks like capitulation from Trumps team.

This will not be good for biotech and Pharma stocks: https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/11/politics/trump-prescription-drug-prices

Indian media are all government propaganda. It takes 5 min surfing the YouTube channels to see this. I think the IAF has mismanaged this engagement and the Chinese J10 used by Pakistan is better than thought and a threat that needs to be taken seriously. The US has the stealth advantage but remember that long wave radar can detect stealth airplanes. Ironically the first radar employed during the WW2 (Battle of Britain etc) were long wave radar and might have detected an incoming F-35. It would be foolish to assume the Chinese don’t have these to their disposal.

The fact the plane is not propriety of the government but basically is a personal gift to Trump and this clearly identifies this as bribery. To accept gifts other than token ones is illegal for anyone in government function, Check out FCPA https://www.globalcompliancenews.com/anti-corruption/anti-corruption-in-the-united-states/

I would be careful to assume that Japan is totally seperate because it is experiencing a massive tourism boom partly from Chinese tourism due to weak Yen. We know the Chinese tourists tend to be vicarious shoppers. Corruption drives have an impact on luxury goods but it’s not affecting all of them the same way. Xi Jinping first corruption drive for example impacted Ultra premium cognac sales as those special edition bottles costing thousands of $ equivalent were used as bribery tokens and that became a problem when I this became entangled with the ani corruption drive. At the same time though, it seemed like equally high value MouTai liquor was Ok to use and that (imo) contributed significantly to the rise of this business so making the stock tremendously valuable while Remy etc never really recovered. So it’s kind to tough to predict which way the wind is going to blow but I think over time, the Chinese will develop a preference for domestic luxury goods over foreign ones, as they are more corruption proof.