Spekulatius

I wait for snap backs due to macro. Sell the rip, buy the dip is my playbook for 2025. Stocks like this are extremely volatile and I expect this to remain so.

MAGA guys think everything will be OK until they are personally affected. I think the chance of supply chain interruptions is real, This is similar to COVID-19 in many respect with the virus being in the White House. Put yourself in the shoes of importers right now, what would you do? I would not order anything from China, because you don’t know what it will cost when it arrives at the US harbor 30-50 days later. If you have to default on your contracts (to deliver something) , invoke force majeure. So, I think we see some empty shelves as well as supply chain snarls where input goods are missing. Housing will be likely one of the hard hit sectors due to tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber, less immigrant labor and likely persistent high interest rates as well as deteriorating consumer confidence. Could be quite a combo.

I have seen this thesis 5 years ago, 10 years ago. Silver has a history of sharp peaks that quickly subside.

Trump is just thinking out loud. Not actionable.

So tariff are going to be paid by foreigners? Also, he looks at trade balances but what about the goods that American and American companies don’t get any more. 40% of China’s exports to the US are actually components that go into US products , which now need to be sourced from elsewhere, but where? On USMCA- he forgot about tariffs on Aluminum, lumber, steel, cars that were USCMA compliant and still get tariffed He also didn’t predict the escalation with China, states they can retaliate, but they did. He talks bout retaliation in services and the big gang and just states that this isn’t viable politically, why not? the US has a huge surplus in services, so targeting those are very low hanging fruit for Europe. I don’t think these guys have thought this very well through. I am also fairly that the $600B in revenues (from American tax payers) won’t be happening either. If you run the math, ~20% of China’s GDP are exports but only 15% of exports go to the USA, so that’s 3% of China’s GDP. It’s a huge number, but if they can compensate for 1/3 then why can’t they take a 2%one time hit to GDP? It could cause a stagnant year but wouldn’t be the end of the world. Then they would be decoupled and there would not be much that the US could do to China any more.I think this is the game China is going to play if they have to.

I found this episode pretty good. The guest law professor suggested that the treasury could extend maturities of treasuries without necessarily triggering a default. There is even some precedence for this. My conclusion is that under Trump, treasuries should not be considered a risk free asset class any more. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000703968744

Hegseth himself is a DEI hire. He is totally unqualified.

I am. It sure hat to make out of this, They are hyping deal with China but as far we know there have been no talks yet. Bessent/ Trump are sort of caving here, but then Trump also said that they are setting the terms.Seems all like vaporware to me.

Why would you deal with corporate bonds yielding 5.75% when you can buy treasuries yielding almost 5%?. A 0.75% risk spread is a joke.

STNE

A starter in UNH.

Anyone remember that one:

Better hide when daddy is hammered:

Emerging market status unlocked : https://www.npr.org/2025/04/21/nx-s1-5370690/hegseth-signal-chat-jim-himes https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-taunts-jerome-powell-waiting-long-cut-rates-rcna202123

Money is flowing into Gold because it’s a safety heaven. Small cap Gold shitcos even if cheap are the opposite of being a safety plays. that’s why the money flow into those are limited. this may change at some point. As always, I would look at plays that have self help components (buybacks , dividends).

This is a good one, clearly discussing, China’s strengths:

I think one big consequence of the political turmoil will be the end of the US exceptionalism in terms of equity valuations, USD getting weaker (already happening and partly intended), resulting in lower purchasing power and wealth for the mean citizen. The above is needed to balance the trade balance. Nothing else will do in my opinion. As an investor, I think it’s time to diversify out of US stocks and the USD. It’s similar to 70’s when Nixon abandoned the gold standard which created economic turmoil and the winner and looser were very different than in the decades before.

The Brazilian taxes I paid so far are very small.

A crash is 20%+ IMO. Most RE corrections are less than 20%. What can easily happen is a 10% correction and the price just sit there for a couple of years doing nothing. that can be tough if you are a RE investor and your property isn’t cash flow positive and very much feels like a crash.

@SharperDingaan Is the resurgence of the liberal party a good or a bad thing for Canada though? After all, they deserve a lot of blame for Canada lagging behind. Poilievre seems less polished than Carney but perhaps he and his party have more substance? I would be inclined to think that change is better than assuming that the same party who caused the problem can solve it now after exchanging a few people on top. Canada really needs to expand their trade to the EU. It is in a way and ideal partner fo the EU as it supplements many thing (energy, resources, some agricultural goods) that the EU needs. I could also see more trade with Mexico directly than with the US as a hub and spoke in between.

I agree with this, but now we will see if the US is actually prepared . The first scare about rare earth was about 12 years or so ago around 2013 and Molycorp was round then too and a momentum stock, but little was done in the meantime. Molycorp itself went bankrupt. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molycorp#:~:text=Molycorp Inc.&text=The corporation%2C which was formerly,output and a 2014 restructuring.

Gasoline prices have been going up, despite lower crude prices. I was wondering why but I think part of it is the Canadian tariffs on crude. I don’t see a trend with grocery prices and some are seasonal so will be hard to tell. I guess NY can soon celebrate much few tourists for sure.

Ukraine war may just move into the too hard pile. Trump initially claimed that the war would end before he even took office but I guess that didn’t happen. Now Putin is dragging his feet on any even initial ceasefire talks because he seas himself in a favorable position due to slow gains on territory and the US going soft on him. He also got another 160k in new recruits for his meat waves that sure are going to occur ins summer. I think he wants to see if they can do something on the frontlines.

He is just making up stuff now:

I am not Canadian but I like Canada. Canada and the USA are not the same. It’s like a bit of an Europeanized version of the USA that polishes offsome rough edges. I remember that we once drove back from BC into Washington state via a rural road. It was a beautiful Barrett landscape until all of a sudden until we hit the border booth. Right after the border booth, the landscape turned into a junkyard with rusty Whirlpool washing machines just casually dumped next to the road, tires, bud cans strewn al over the place. Wellcome back to the USA. We laughed at each other. In any case, the country had a lot of things going for it and some glaring mostly man made issues as well. Hopefully with the county coming together, they can do better on the future and keep their identity.