Spekulatius

Did Israel take it off the table or were the demands just not reasonable from an Iranian perspective. Iran had low level enrichment for a long time and this was disallowed and Iran was supped to source the low enriched uranium from other countries. I guess the maximalist demand don’t work all that time. To be fair it’s not clear to me that Iranian regime really wanted a deal but rather tried to stall negotiations and do their thing. From the airman perspective, I think they see having nuclear capabilities as insurance policy and make sure they have a seat at the table regardless what happens in the region in the future. thats one of the lesson from Ukraine - never never give up nuclear capabilities. Now there is a question if Israel can truly destroy them or if it’s merely a setback and the program will continue but with more secrecy and better concealed. I think it’s the latter.

Maybe I am the only one to admit it, but the chart is the first thing that I look at when I learn about a new stock. It doesn’t take long to see what the sentiment is right now. Also a stock that has not performed for a long time (5 years +) has issues and you need to find out what those issues are.

It’s says, put in a limit order at $450 and change maybe it hits on a bad news day.

Iran needs Israel as a scapegoat and enemy for political reasons. The regime is concerned about politic unrest and nothing is better to rally the people and troops than a common enemy. The question now is how far are they willing to escalate. They could threaten the Hormuz Straight which would essentially stop ship traffic from entering and exiting the Persian Gulf and at this point the US would likely enter the theatre with the Navy.

Actually the reward for letting the US know is that Trump basically blurted out 12h before that it will happen. I am not sure it matters in this case, but if you are an ally, you look at this and probably don’t want to Trump/Hegseth to know what you plan to do, because they can’t keep their mouth shut.

There was no parade on the Army‘s 200 birthday in 1975 and that‘s a rounder number. No, I am not a fan or military parades in general.

Our victory parade conveniently falls on Donnie the Greats birthday. That’s not the case with those above which are on national holidays.

From an Iranian perspective , the deal that Trump proposed wasn’t really worth signing, because I didn’t allow Iran to keep the lower level enrichment that they have had for a long time and can be used for commercial reactors. Also, what are deal signed with Trump really worth? Then we have the lesson from Ukraine war to never give up nuclear leverage. I think Iran will retaliate against Israel just to save face but this doesn’t mean much. The key question is if they threaten the Straight of Hormuz. If that happens, oil will go up, if not, it will likely going back to where it was. In the case the Straight of Hormuz is threatened/blockade, the US Navy will get involved, imo.

Sold a bit of $RTX in overnite trading as the stock made a nice jump. That position was a bit more than a double.

Why is it bullshit? The rules are actually quite clear. Anyways, I don’t think Europe can rely on article 5, it’s got to do your own his rework, which seem to be what’s happening.

Iran says no deal and goes nuclear: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/12/iran-doubles-down-as-us-signals-israel-could-strike-during-nuclear-talks Now Taco Don needs to show his cards. I think Israel may strike and Trump will do little, maybe a presser and a mean Tweet on Truthsocial. Take credit if it works out and if things go south, Blame it on Biden. @cubsfan please confirm.

I like PAX in particular because of its hr exposure to South American markets. I regard these markets as very attractive and under penetrated relative to the US market and think PAX can outgrow US focused peers if they execute well.

I have never seen an autocrat who doesn’t love a pompous parade in front of him. Greetings from Putin, Xi Jinping, KimJong have theirs, why can’t Trump? Hitler, Mussolini, Honecker and Stalin are cheering from the afterlives (or hell) too.

A very good epsoide from Excess returns with a T Rowe Price portfolio manager as guest: Lot’s of great info in this one as he discloses his approach to investing and portfolio management.

Article 5? maybe, maybe not:

Sold remainder of HKHHY. Worked out ok. Sold APA. I would rather buy more PBR-A (and did buy some more recently). Sold REMYY (loss) . Getting out of

It’s not so much that the € is flying, the USD is weak against pretty much any other currency. This devaluation will help fix the trade deficit, as it does make US exports more competitive and imports more expensive compared to domestically produced goods.

I think if you have a mental model of Trump being a 13 year old petulant teenager, you are pretty close to understanding what’s going on now.

Also this: https://aviationweek.com/defense/budget-policy-operations/canadian-f-35-order-faces-cost-spike-facility-delay-pilot-shortage So this was ordered in 2022 based on 3 year old estimates? Nobody bothered to update the quote? Seem like ain’t nobody likes the F35 no more.

Selling some $JCI from my taxable accounts. Very close to a double after ~15 month. Not bad. The stock now looks overvalued to me.

Belated question but it seems like you sold $STZ?

What is a private company worth with no capital distributions and no exit? Is it just marked based on the last round in 2021?

Don made a Taco Tuesday deal with Mexico regarding steel. The jokes are writing themselves now.

I thought it was about illegal immigration’s. Stupid me. Now it makes sense why we deport immigrants with a traffic ticket.

Bought a starter in $WLY. Betting on improving margins from restructuring and AI licensing benefits.