Spekulatius

With a little bit of inflation, Japanese stocks will go gangbusters.

The EV industry in China is hugely competitive and it’s likely they are going to be major players in second / third world countries. They could take away a lot of market shares from Toyota, VW and the likes. I doubt that they will be allowed to gain much market share in the US. Europe is probably more likely, but any self driving Chinese car is a no no for obvious espionage reasons.

Theories abound, but the evidence to me is that not NATO expansion, but. The prospect of a democratic Ukraine is what really scared Putin, because it undermines his autocratic power. The evidence that points to this is timing. Russia invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014 after the Orange Revolution when they chased away Russia friendly President Yanukovych was changed away and and exiled to Russia. https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/ Why would NATO extension be an issue for Russia? At some point Yeltsin and even Putin contemplated joining NATO. There is absolutely no reason why Russia could not have joined NATO just like Poland etc.

Kamikaze never works and the actual Russian soldier doing his work doesn’t believe in what he is doing, unlike in WW2. They are the attackers and they are left out to die on the frontline there. Those that go home will be a very potent threat to Putin. Even with Putins control of the media this will become a huge problem for them. On a different note, a Michael Clark from Sky News mentioned that the African leaders are not really on a peace deal visit in Ukraine and Russia. Instead, want to make sure that the grain deal gets extended another year, because they are dependent on grain imports and no deal mean higher prices for them. This makes sense to me.

Putin always mentioned his nukes when he is losing. If we back down on Ukraine, Russia still has 5977 inter continental missiles and he knows for sure his strategy is working and will use it again and again. The only think that neutralize nuclear threats are nukes. So eventually Ukraine might become a nuclear power just for the sake of neutralizing The Russian threat. About 20 ICBM from mobile launch platforms sites would do. Perhaps even one or two nuclear armed sub in the black sea as well. Putin isn’t a rat in a corner either. He is an aggressive rat that attacked a smaller mouse next to his claimed territory. He can always go back to his rathole.

Thx. I was not aware of the change in share structure and that is good to know and might be a catalyst. Onex is certainly cheap, but I wonder how good of a business it really is. I think they likely end up getting acquired at some point down the road, if the owners allow it

I don’t know about discouraged workers, but I know for fact that China has issues like a homeless population. The problem is all related to illegal migrants that just decide to move into cities, even though they are not allowed too (you can’t necessarily move where you want in China). Not sure how large that is and how this has changed, but I was surprised to find a large homeless population of people living in cardboard “houses” under Highway overpasses and bridges when walking in Suzhou one day because I couldn’t get a taxi. Quite an eye opening experience actually. These are the fallout from illegal migrants who decide to move into larger cities, even though they are not allowed to. Most live illegally with relatives, friends end what not, but some end up being homeless nd make do in cardboard boxes. They are still likely registered in their home cities where they come from. There are all sort of caveat emptors you need to be aware of when you look at Chinese data. This is probably true everywhere, but in China even more so.

Just a reminder that China GDP growth data needs to be taken with a large grain of salt. In Martinez study, they seemed one of the biggest offender in juicing their results together with Myanamar https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/350051528721174623/Nightlights.pdf Their real GDP growth is probably about 1/3 less of what they show in their data, if you believe the nightlight correlation:

UNH and ELV are quite similar business. UNH trades at a considerable premium ELV and the rest of the health care space and at least for the UNH- ELV pair, the valuation premium for UNH over RLV seems too high for me. UNH has great operational performance and the stock has responded accordingly which is one of the reasons for the premium. Health care insurers are incredible business due to their cash generation ability. Their liabilities are short term in nature and much of the business is not insurance at all, but more of a fee for service or subscription business. It is a way better business than Pharma in general, imo. Elective procedures are procedures for non- acute conditions and there is a fine line to absolutely essential procedures. The fact that the incidence rate of elective procedure rises could be an indication of a weakening labor market and fear of layoffs. People often get medical stuff done when they think they may lose their health insurance temporarily due to getting laid off , but that’s just my hunch. As for ELV, the part that’s missing are insider purchases - I have not seen any. Insiders didn’t even buy in summer 2020 (when I bought most of my shares) and that would have been a very good time to do so, so maybe their timing acumen isn’t that great.

Putins Game in Africa:

2014 was the year Xi Jinping took power. It has been downhill since - first slowly and now the negative fallout is having more and more impact.

Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

I am bullish in other threads, but not here.

I have a few Nov 2023 QQQ puts. Same idea.

Yes, there is no solution for declining birth rates that China has. A smaller country can solve this with immigration, it with China size, that’s not possible and in addition, not many people want o immigrate there anwyays. China is basically Japan in 1990 . Real estate bubble, central planned economy ( more so in China than in Japan) government is sclerotic and incapable of change, export oriented with competitive advantages fading. Looks at Chinas recent inflation numbers - they are low and I think there is a good chance that China sees deflation led by lack of wage growth and deflating real estate. Some that happened in Japan in the 90’s. There is a good chance that economic growth in China is going to decelerate where they grow slower than the US in my opinion. For example the high youth unemployment is a sure sign of a static/ sclerotic economy. This is a result of Xi Jinping policies which kneecapped the entrepreneurial spirit of the new economy - the layoffs in tech are a result of that. If I had to bet on one thing to flourish in China the next few years, it’s crime and the underworld, but I don’t know how to invest in that one..

Well Stagflation is a scenario where we get a recession and interests don’t go down. A spike in energy prices for example could push inflation up again for example. Also, the bond market has been massively wrong for a while, it didn’t predict a 5% increase in rates in 12 month either. Unexpected stuff can happen, not saying it will.

Yes, if the Fed really does two more rate hikes this year, as they say they might, market participants are going to scream bloody murder: Market had been saying that the Fed is bluffing for a while but so far they have done exactly what they said they are going to do. I don’t think that two more rate hikes are likely either , but it seems that most have already penciled in rate decreases this year, which I don’t think are likely either. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/14/fed-rate-decision-june-2023.html

I thought studies shown that the Nifty Fifty performed about the same that the SP500. I guess in a way that shows they were efficiently priced. What is the best performed form the NF list - WMT?

Just remember Avon, Kodak, Polaroid, Xerox, KMart (Kresge), Sears&Roebuck Digital Equipment and Schlitz Brewing were Nifty Fifty stocks too. Survivorship bias is a problem here. Lots of roadkill on the way:

I think the big question with DCA is where is the cash coming from? Much depends on your personal circumstances but if you are fully invested in the GFC you likely have little cash in 2009 to DCA down. Also, many lost their jobs at that time or were afraid of job losses and needed to pay back debt or build some cash reserves. It was a scary time. Everything sounds easy in retrospect but in order to thrive, you must first survive.

So did you buy DHI at $10-$15? I didn't. Most things are more obvious in hindsight. Yes, DHI was a good buy at $10. So were many other things at that time. I know a fellow who bought BAC at $40 in 2007 and then bought another slog of BAC at $4 in 2009. Obviously the first buy was almost a total loss but in total it worked out alright. It's better to buy at $4 after the shytestorm blew over though.

Prigozhin can’t shift sides, he is too deep in with war crimes all over the place. He is to Putin what Himmler was to Hitler. He also getting very cocky and I think crossing Putin is not good for the health in general. Also of note, is that he pulled his mercenaries back from Bahkmut in particular and to some extend from other areas of the frontline, so if the Russians army loses due the Ukrainian counteroffensive, then we know exactly where he can point fingers to.

There are several “Mittelstand” Holding cos listed in Germany but MBB seem by far the best managed. Gesco and Indus are other ones, but they are often invested in value trap business ( small car suppliers etc ) and seem to overpay in general. Gesco’s largest holding is Dorrenberg (specialty/ niche steel) which isn’t the greatest business either, but at least seems decently run. They are moving away from car supplier focus to hopefully owning better business.

It’s like Tirerack but in Japan. They have some stores, but focus is on online. I actually had found this one using screening a while ago, but never bought it until someone mentioned it on Twitter with a short writeup and I connected some dots. It’s a business that has shown some decent organic growth over time, which is rare in Japan. Cash flows are pretty lumpy though. Edit : just be aware that the recent writeup from Asian Century stocks seems to have moved the stock. The stock was somewhat weak after earnings, presumable due to their guidance (which some Japanese companies set very conservatively). I think they are likely to beat the guidance just looking at the number trends so far, but could be wrong.

My Subaru car loan is serviced by Chase. It showed up in my CC chase accounts just like magic (based on SS number, I presume).