Spekulatius

At major turning points in history, there is rarely a single root cause for things to turn, In most cases, it’s a confluence of things. Why did the Germans lose WW2? Was it the harsh Russian winter in 1941/42? Lack of manpower and bad logistics due to being stretched too thin? Better Russian tactics and ferocious resistance in Moscow? US aid? Why did the French Revolution happen? American Revolution showing the way L Rising bread prices and inflation? Excesses of the French King and Nobility? Likely all of the above.

Looks like the Russian frontline is cracking some more with Verbove likely already in Ukrainian control. Verbove controls one of the two main two roads into Tokmak ( which is a fortress). I do think the Ukrainian may just go around Tokmak. If Tokmak falls the hinterland is wide open. Looks like the Russians are in deep trouble if the Ukraine can exploit this still small breakthrough. Then there is the whole drone swarm issue all over Russia. You can see movies of slow drone flying over Moscow. What a disaster for the Russians On another note, it is interesting to see the nonsense that is shown on Indian media:

Definitely want to second that Dan Calin's hardcore history is gold for history buffs. I didnt want to argue, but i think there are theories around that it was more than just the death of Khan that caused the Mongol juggernaut to stop. i do think it is correct to state that the Mongols were much more than a barbarian horde. For once they facilitated trade - because they controlled such a large landmass all the way to China, it made it actually easier to travel than dealing with a dozen kingdoms and warlords. They were also masters of siege warfare and likely the first one to effectively use cannons, even though gunpowder was invented by the Chinese. Then they were masters of logistics as their communication system resembled the Pony Express.

Benevolent rulers have become malevolent rulers fairly quick. History is not on your side with this one. The same arguments have been used to justify monarchies etc. Democracy's are not perfect, but there is no alternative, imo.

I highly recommend the podcast / youtube series from Asianometry: https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry He discusses some long forgotten stocks like Wang Computer, Norsk Data, Olivetti computers etc. as well as many more topics. FWIW, I actually owned Norsk Data stock at some point (lost a bit of money on it before I bailed) - yes I am that old.

Just bought a ticket for Rhiannon Giddens. $41 is a bargain these days. Fantastic musicians:

I think the problem with BRICS is that only China and India really matter and they don't trust each other. For me the biggest news is that the gulf states and especially Saudi Arabia were added. The Saudi's indeed are a powerhouse, albeit fragile from within. They have been traditionally allied with the US but that relationship has soured so now the Saudi's need new partners to assure that their oil keeps flowing.

Crooks are everywhere. Just to name a very public example, read up how Vivek Ramaswamy made his billion. I think some people lie and commit fraud, because they can't help it. It's not about the money for them.

Because China is aggressive and has virtually attacked all their neighbors post WW2. Tibet 1946 (annexed) Korea 1950 Taiwan straight 1955/1958 Myanmar 1960 India 1962 (and several times after that) Russia 1969 Vietnam 1979 Most were under Mao but Vietnam 1979 was not. XJP is a neo Maoist, so if you are China's neighbor, you should be concerned. There is also currently a cold war with the Philippines going on, due to China planting concrete Island and then declaring the ocean around it theirs.

CCP in charge of capital allocation: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3232720/chinas-record-annual-limit-infrastructure-boosting-bonds-be-spent-october

This guy did it all wrong. He should have gambled with one day options instead. They either work or they don't before the check bounces.

Didn't the Mongols typical kill 1/4 of the population when they conquered land? I think they eventually out-expanded their logistics and that's why they stopped expanding. Then there was infighting which also increased with the larger and larger empire. I also think the Europeans learned and made better and better fortifications to basically stall the Mongols. The Mongol being so far away needed quick victories or they ran into trouble and could not sustain their troops and horses (again logistics). Or maybe it was the introduction of paper money instead of silver and gold coins that did them in.

Software Ponzis, SillyCon Valley Style: https://x.com/laurenbalik/status/1696562499447935006?s=61&t=E8YgOMPn5yLNAJ40xrQKFQ

There is just too much debt for me on BRP balance sheet for my taste (including a revolver). I did buy a bit WTW recently and keep holding my BRO late last year.

Sort of interesting to what extend they are working social media: https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-uncovers-largest-ever-chinese-influence-network-4e20be8e?mod=tech_lead_pos1

Putin thought he was winning in May 2022. Do you think Putin makes a deal when he is winning? By the way, Putin’s official condition to even start peace talks is that Ukraine gives up the land that they concerned back last year, because that’s now Russian in his view, since he (illegally) annexed it. His demand for Ukraine’ neutrality is another non-starter for the Ukraine, because a neutral Ukraine just means it’s up for grabs later for Putin a few years down the road. I think the likely end state is that Ukraine obtains NATO membership as part of the peace deal, so the borders with Russia are guaranteed by Article 5. Everything else will lead to a redo of the whole war most likely, it’s just a matter when.

I try to include both growth and traditional value picks and do a good deal of diversification. That way, the kicks in the groin get more manageable. As for cloning other people, - this has never worked for me. I do get ideas for interesting stocks but mostly are not directly actionable for me- they are more like additions to my watch list.

Looks like JXN got a bump due to inclusion in a small cap index. I wait for tomorrows dividend - $0.62 and likely will sell some too in tax deferred accounts.

This is value investing in a nutshell, in China or elsewhere. The feeling when the pain subsides is unsurpassed.

wrong GIF:

Dataroma has an interesting chart showing ( hedge? )fund exposure sorted by ticker symbol: https://www.dataroma.com/m/grid.php

Mariupol is the largest city taken by the Russians.

Hopefully not a hedge fund manager but somebody who knows how to run a business.

Incorrect. Who runs out first depends in the attrition ratio. Russia also is running out of material. For example they don’t seem to be able to field that many tanks any more. Their offensive power is gone. They have plenty of artillery, but it’s not precision guided, so every time they shoot, they open themselves up to precise Ukrainian counterbattery fire. In my opinion, Russia will run out of men and material before Ukraine does. End result are a very bad attrition ratio for the artillery for the Russian side. .

Bought a bit more LHX this AM.