Spekulatius

Pretty good 5 min summary from Michael Clark of the current situation:

BlackBerry movie on Hulu: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21867434/ Well done Movie, imo.

There is not one, there are probably hundred that lose all on option trades. ST option trades are zero sum games. This fellow seems to have some serious skill if you believe his posts.

Animal spirits are still alive: $20M starting from $2M…

Nuclear power is much more expensive than NG power plants right now. I can’t imaging anything beating power generation at <$3 MCFE right now, not even coal. I agree Ng is oversupplied in the US - all the more reason to export NGL right now not ban/ stall export licenses.

I did not like Dumb money. I felt that the actor portraying Roaring Kitty was bland and felt the story was poorly told. On True detective /Night Country, I personally liked the show, but I agree there was some weakness in storytelling especially Ep 3&4. I did feel they tied it up decently at the end. Acting was great.

WEB made it clear that he won’t buy OXY outright. Only insurance is thriving. BNSF seems to trail peers and BHE energy has hit a pothole. The remainder (manufacturing etc) is flat.

Sold $GEHC in tax deferred accounts. This was just a starter position. GEHC seems fully valued to me.

TSMC

Sure, but I want to build cash in one of my tax deferred accounts. I don’t expect $C rise from the ashes to be without hiccups either.

Well NVDA is not a manufacturing company - they don’t build their own ships, they just design them.

Reduced $C a bit and sold my highest cost shares in $RI.PA

Yes, the gold rush analogy is a pretty good one. We don’t know how much gold rush is out there, but there is plenty of money sloshing around to buy shovel’s (NVDA chips). Eventually there will be an AI winter where funding dries up and only the most worthwhile projects and upstarts will receive funding. Thats a while out though.

lol. There are a bunch of live stream with $NVDA ticket now on YT.

Now that’s an development I did not expect, although a deal makes sense as there are quite a few synergies. I don’t think COF can afford to pay cash, so I think the deal is either stock for stock or stock and cash.

Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. I can see this becoming quite a political issue and if they expire, it’s going to be a huge headwind for stocks. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/buckle-2025-promises-be-historic-year-tax-and-budget-policy

The important thing is to start going in the right direction far enough that the average person see some tangible progress. That makes it likely that whoever is going to be elected next keeps doing the same thing.

The Hertz warrants are $4.37 while the stock is $7.37. I think the warrants are a very long dated call at a $13.8 strike with a 2051 date. I don’t think it’s that attractive unless you are very bullish about HTZ stock price.

For a cannibal to work, you need a cheap stock with a low earnings multiple not an expensive one. The best case scenario is that your cheap cannibal becomes an expensive compounder but then the buyback magic really doesn’t now worth any more - see AZO or AAPL.

Consensus forecast. Looks like consensus is for a loss in Q1, which is much weaker than last year. Part of the issue is with increased vehicle depreciation expenses due to used car prices becoming weaker apparently. I am surprised by the violent stock reaction and didn’t expect it just reading the earnings release.

$CAR down from ~$170 to $113 since discussed here. Weak operating results and a ton of leverage do this. I think 2024 results are going to be way down, it seems.

You must be looking at a different stock then. $AN last quarterly earnings were $5.04/ share and 2024 consensus forecast is for $19.3/ share which at $143 is a 7.4x PE.

Sold remainder of my CVS (in taxable account) and a smidge of VNT (in an tax deferred account low on cash)

It’s not just that, some analog devices can’t be miniaturized, because they don’t work binary. Sometimes you need to generate a certain current or power output and a too small device structure won’t be able to do with without overheating. Same with a sensor - if you want to capture some photons , you may need the receptive area to be of a certain size etc.

B21 public flight. Beautiful bird. Seems on schedule too: