Spekulatius

Good news for Milei’s party and perhaps equally important, The Peronist party got much less votes (24%) https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/mileis-party-on-track-to-win-argentina-election-in-big-comeback.phtml

Business leader go where the money is and they know that they need to placate Trump. That’s why Zuck said, Meta would spent $600B in the US which imo is never going to happen. The BBB is an incredible windfall for business but not for the average Joe. Of course when CHTR goes from paying $1.5B in taxes to paying zero because of bonus depreciation, they will love it - who wouldn’t? What tax break will the average Joe get, maybe a few breadcrumbs here and there which are more than made up by degrading public services and benefits. I expect that trends like this are going to continue: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/top-10-of-earners-drive-a-growing-share-of-us-consumer-spending?embedded-checkout=true There is capitalism and there is crony capitalism and now we have more of the latter than the former.

It’s kind of ironical that MAGA is full about owning the Liberals (Democrats) but he also owns the Republicans just as well. This has become a one man party. Now you can’t show quotes from Reagan any more apparently.

What kind of dog like green beens and pees?

I think he just manages accounts for others now and that doesn’t require disclosure.

Well I am watching it closely and it will be interfering to see how this evolves. Execution is key, not financial engineering.

Their revenues are down high single digits -8% in topline and it’s accelerating. Headcount is down by about the same amount. BAH are gettin caught by the shifts in spending in Washington. I think BAH is fine LT but the next 12 month the could be rough. I am taking a look at SAIC here which is not as good of a business but in fact is very cheap. They are talking about $13/ share in FCF while shares trade at $93. So I don’t get them all, but if I lose 7% when I am wrong and 30-50% if I am right I need only be right half the time and I will do well. That’s how I think about those bets generally speaking.

Inflation keeps moving up, albeit slowly:

It’s on YouTube:

True you can’t eat a BMW but the government shutdown is now on for 2 weeks. So that’s one missed paycheck. I guess government employees are living paycheck to paycheck as most people do, BMW or not.

Sold $BAH - ~7% loss on worse than expected earnings. I may get back into that one. I like the business, but the results were way worse than what I was expecting.

I like his ideas also. He is getting involved in a lot turnaround sort of situations. Some work and some do not - fair enough. I suspect what is really hurting them is shorting.

They are paying more than that right now. AJG mentioned 10-11x EBITDA a few years ago but that was for small acquisitions. BRO paid way more than that for Ascension (their recent large acquisition). My guess is that acquisitions are done at the low teens multiple right now.

Newprincess - I read the story and the pitches but why would they have more success buying these tired business than the former owners? I just don’t get how they create value.

I agree this is almost comical. They are long a housing stock GRBK went up 17% but then lost it all with housing shorts . Also lost money in a meme stock (OPEN?). His longs KD and LXs are down solid double digits… I think LXS will be a good trade at some point.

Bought a starter in BOLSAA (Mexican stock exchange) after how hum earnings. Seems quite cheap with a 11x PE. However, BOLSAA hasn’t shown much growth due to the moribund Mexican stock market. I think it’s cheap enough to get a decent return even if the situation does not improve. There are some early indications that the Mexican stock market may improve (new listings etc).

China almost exactly copies the US playbook now to fight a trade war: https://www.wwnytv.com/2025/10/20/hit-back-united-states-their-trade-war-china-borrows-us-playbook/ 1) The export controls on rare earth minerals and components made from them mimicks the US export controls on semiconductors, which in less secondary controls of third party trade partners. 2) The Unreliable entire list mimics the US entity list. (The company I work for is on the Unreliable entity list as well) https://www.wwnytv.com/2025/10/20/hit-back-united-states-their-trade-war-china-borrows-us-playbook/ This means that China is digging in for an extend trade war, imo.

I think a better commodity to ratio against Gold would be copper. Copper is chemically related and it often occurred together with Gold. Both are mined which means the cost to operate Gold and copper mines should be correlated. One serves as store of value and the other one doesn’t. https://www.longtermtrends.net/copper-gold-ratio/

There is very little reason why Gold and oil prices should be correlated.

Barrett Brown is just a VP though. If CEO or CFO‘s leave, then it’s a bigger deal, but VP‘s not so much.

This is true as well. Just give Ukraine weapons and see what we’ll instead of endless debates and saying “we don’t have enough“ but then not making more either. They really put their weakness on display here .

Sadly enough , Germany does not deliver Taurus missiles to Ukraine either, despite Merz implying such before the election. I am not sure what happened there, it’s just radio silence on this matter. Its true, that Donny has a hard on for Putin, but Europe and particularly Germany are not leading either. I suspect if Germany or other European countries do more and it shows an impact, Trump might actually be following.

Graph is cherry picked. Some large reinsurers like RNR (trades at 1.2x book and PE ~7x) are missing. They are similar to Fairfax as they both have a large reinsurance business.

Re BWIN (used to be BRP) the concerns that Blue Orcs brings up are more or less mentioned in this thread on the first few pages. You can see from a mile away just looking at BWIN income statement and balance sheet that they a very aggressive rollup. Sith that come questions about rollup costs, adjustments to the income statement and the balance sheet (leverage). It looks like a hot potato stock to me.

Karpathy and Dwarkesh podcast about AI. I have not listend to the whole thing but he seems very skeptical on AI progress.