Spekulatius

Taiheiyo bought the Californian readymix cement business form VMR: https://www.taiheiyo-cement.co.jp/english/summary/pdf/251028.pdf $712M in cash. This is substantial for Taiheiyo. I expect the stock to be down today.

Crypto is so tailor made for money laundering and bribery . Now every politician can start a shitcoin and then the donor buys it for “ investment” but really for access and it’s now all open and legal. Funneling cash to politicians was possible before but you needed secret bank account or cash envelopes or a legit looking consulting job (had to leave office for that though) and can get caught. There is no getting caught any more be used it’s legal and in the open. This is going to kick off an other race to to bottom in terms of corruption which started when SuperPAC’s were allowed by the supreme (or should I say subprime court).

I certainly do, but I wonder what caused the selloff to begin with. The headline numbers looked Ok. The CC transcript seems Ok too but management commentary is not very promotional. The Accession acquisition seems to go alright. It does look like the report caused the sector to turn south. Anyways, I bought more BRO and also a bit more AON today.

Yes the personal reduction in line with revenue reduction in the high single digits let me believe that the adjustment period will take a while. Looking back into the sequestering days in 2014 or so, the stock tears at 1x revenue to EV which would be around $70/share. I figure this is the worst case scenario. I am going to buy into $BAH again as this plays out the next 9-12 month.

Pretty much everything is down but BRO more. I am adding a bit more.

It’s not zero next year but much much smaller. Tikr (which is some analyst consensus ) forecast for 2026 $126b in a cash from operations and ~$99B in Capex. I am not sure if this includes these off balance sheet vehicles or not. I think datacenters have a structural component (building, utilities) and a tech component (servers etc). The latter depreciates fairly quickly - in four years or so, it’s worthless. So, the overall depreciation rate for the AI datacenters will be very high and they need to be refurbished completely every couple of years. This will permanently change how the income stats to looks for those tech companies that participate in the AI arms race. So now the big question is how much incremental EBITDA will META generate from their ~$100B in annual Capex spent. Hopefully more than from the Metaverse. They need about $20B in incremental Ebitda just to break even on those investments (imo). .

Added to APR.W (Autopartnet) overbite . APR is a Poland based auto supply part business similar to AZO, GPC but operated in Poland and the rest of Europe. They don’t have strong FCF of AZO and lower margins but a strong organic growth. Organic growth has waned this year to ~7%+ percent but I think it’s picking up. Last month growth was ~10% (they publish monthly revenue numbers) and I think they can do double digits again. I bought my first lot in 2022 when the Polish market crashed and added more this year.

I had the measles as a kid because the vaccine wasn’t available yet. I remember almost a week having itchy blisters all over the body and missing week in school. Other kids hit the jackpot and had some permanent scars. Tough choice between that a single shot. The chance to get the Measels back then with no one being vaccinated yet was almost 100%. If I had been born two years later and I would have missed all the fun.

Looks like a beat to me. Organic revenue growth has remained at ~3.5% - the same than last quarter. I take it as good news that organic growth has not slowed down more.

Reducing RTX and VNT.

Well FCF for META is heading to zero next year. These tech plays will have an income statement that resembles utilities.

BRO will announce earnings today after the close , which should be interesting. The key metrics will be organic growth and the integration of the of the Accession acquisition , imo. AON also has a weak day today . I like this stock also.

This is true but only to the extent that it causes incremental Capex. What I am some is that some Capex heavy seem to become zero Taxpayer spending the same amount that they are spending last year. Read CHTR, ATT Cc transcript for reference . Some companies even get reimbursement checks for taxes paid in prior years. Saw this in SAIC CC (~$1/ share in extra cash flow and ~$200M in taxes returned if I read this is right) There is actually an investment angle in there that BBB is the biggest tax windfall for many large business since the PPP came out during COVID.

I can’t comment on NYC situation but you need to get the hell out of there. As I understand it , you live of your investments which means you can live anywhere you want. You have no reason to stay where you are except inertia.

Interesting article on Argentina and why its economy is lagging partly behind the paywall . Argentina as an economy never transitioned from an Agrarian economy to a manufacturing economy. https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/argentinas-original-sin?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

I disagree here. I think the script is bad and the acting mediocre. It’s 6/10.

My cement play Taiheiyo Cement 5233 is up another 3% plus today - anyone knows why? Did the “Iron lady” come up with an infrastructure program? Half the time, I have no idea why shares go up and down, sometimes significantly. I am not complaining in this particular case, but it’s a bit concerning at times.

Careful equating living standards with GDP/ person. Mississippi may have higher GDP/ person but it does not mean the living standard (which is more a matter of means than averages) is better. I have not been in Mississippi but drove a quite bit through rural South Carolina and when what you see out in the weeds is really more of a second or third world country (comparable to Thailand - I drove through that one too) than Europe. I have not seen anything close to this in Germany or France.

Good news for Milei’s party and perhaps equally important, The Peronist party got much less votes (24%) https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/mileis-party-on-track-to-win-argentina-election-in-big-comeback.phtml

Business leader go where the money is and they know that they need to placate Trump. That’s why Zuck said, Meta would spent $600B in the US which imo is never going to happen. The BBB is an incredible windfall for business but not for the average Joe. Of course when CHTR goes from paying $1.5B in taxes to paying zero because of bonus depreciation, they will love it - who wouldn’t? What tax break will the average Joe get, maybe a few breadcrumbs here and there which are more than made up by degrading public services and benefits. I expect that trends like this are going to continue: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/top-10-of-earners-drive-a-growing-share-of-us-consumer-spending?embedded-checkout=true There is capitalism and there is crony capitalism and now we have more of the latter than the former.

It’s kind of ironical that MAGA is full about owning the Liberals (Democrats) but he also owns the Republicans just as well. This has become a one man party. Now you can’t show quotes from Reagan any more apparently.

What kind of dog like green beens and pees?

I think he just manages accounts for others now and that doesn’t require disclosure.

Well I am watching it closely and it will be interfering to see how this evolves. Execution is key, not financial engineering.

Their revenues are down high single digits -8% in topline and it’s accelerating. Headcount is down by about the same amount. BAH are gettin caught by the shifts in spending in Washington. I think BAH is fine LT but the next 12 month the could be rough. I am taking a look at SAIC here which is not as good of a business but in fact is very cheap. They are talking about $13/ share in FCF while shares trade at $93. So I don’t get them all, but if I lose 7% when I am wrong and 30-50% if I am right I need only be right half the time and I will do well. That’s how I think about those bets generally speaking.