Spekulatius

Insider trading is if you trade as an insider on material non-public information that you received through your employment. Disclosing this information to others that may trade on this is also insider trading.

I actually think that NVDA makes more sense than AAPL. As @ArminvanBuyout mentioned, the multiples are not that differ on t and if you are bullish on AI, NVDA should grow by leaps and bounds more so than AAPL. AAPL looks more and more like KO in 1999.

Elon is clearly valuable for Tesla and I think he deserves some stock, so the board cannot just ignore his request. There is a question how much is justified or not. I think the board could structure a deal about him having substantial voting control on the AI part of the business without causing excessive dilution for Tesla shareholders. Another way would be to create another class voting share stock with more voting power. Both could work if it’s really voting control he is after.

Added a bit more $HUM today on today’s earnings warning. I am not pleased but it is what it is. Thats why I like to take smaller positions first, because it gives some room to buy more on weakness. FWIW, this one is in the penalty box until there is further clarity on cost trends this year.

Capedge is still free and has this “delta” functionality, they call it “view diff “ . I tested it out and it seems to work. My guess is that Capedge won’t remain free forever, but for now it is. Capedge is great for tracking new filings.

@cknucks First time I see someone mentioned $APD - what your thesis here? Supplying gases is a good business and if the hydrogen becomes a means of energy storage or replaces dirtier alternatives, then it should work out very nicely for $APD and competitors like Air Liquide or Linde. I am not sure the valuation is that great at a time of higher interest rates, because the business need a lot of Capex.

Sounds like you have done your research. Hedges are limited in duration so how well KW does depend on the interest rate trajectory. If Fairfax bails them out, they are going to charge and arm and a leg and the equity will suffer.

The leverage on $KW is bonkers. I owned some bonds a while ago and even those seem hairy. They are yielding ~9.3% now (4.75% 2030) down from ~11%. Not for me.

No idea, but an analyst from Citigroup downgraded the stock according to my newsfeed from IB. I typically ignore brokerage downgrades, I don’t think it’s something to fret about, unless they really present some new facts.

Seems like a good day to add $CPNG

Purges are done quietly. People disappear. New people take their job. Just because corruption exists, I would not assume that the Chinese armed forces are a paper tiger. it is very clear that they substantially have increased their capabilities and continue to do so. Unlike Russia, they have a strong industrial backbone which is necessary for a defense industry.

Well, they are profitable. I understand why the finance their cars, it's secured debt and relatively cheap. Cars can be relatively easily liquidated, so they can reduce leverage if the business slows by selling off cars, which they do every fall going into winter (because there is less seasonal demand). What I don't get is why they add so much corporate debt. I guess the answer is because they can and to juice returns on equity. FWIW - Sixt (family controlled) runs a much less levered model with a substantial equity layer. I guess they more concerned about not going to zero than to juice the equity returns; https://about.sixt.com/en/investor-relations/

Some of his newer stuff is quite good. I like the Laughing Apple. Just discovered it after going through his Albums. He made some so so stuff after taking a long break (decades!) and converting to Islam but this one is just a great folk Album:

The cars were always financed with debt, but what really surprised me when I looked at both Hertz and Avis balance sheet that they added some corporate unsecured debt at the company level. So these business are a really a pile of unsecured debt on top of a huge pile of secured debt with a sliver of equity. The stocks seem very much like options themselves. Great if it works, but a zero if it doesn’t.

Sounds beautiful. Thanks for sharing.

The strange thing is that $TSLA stock isn’t even down on this news. I guess the longs think it’s a good thing. So he is going to get what he is asking for, more or less.

Today's song:

Thank you for the correction. Clearly a negative but I think for an industrial, the CFO is not as critical than for a bank for example. So, I am upping my position a bit. Sometimes, the leadership changes are harbinger of bad news (earnings misses etc. ) to come, so one should be aware of the risk.

if you listen to the Oddball podcast - only 5% of the Taiwanese are pro unification and that number has been dropping. the longer the countries ( I would call them separate countries at that point) stay apart, the less likely a peaceful unification becomes. Xi going Big brother Mao 2.0 does not help.

Adding to $JCI here (CEO left - stock down ~6%)

Worth checking out if interested in the topic: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/what-would-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-do-to-the-global-economy?srnd=oddlots

On the topic of a Taiwan invasion , I voted 2030-2040. I don’t think Xi is ready to challenge the US and invade Taiwan before that and maybe even not on this timeframe. I do feel like Xi will do something then, perhaps contra to better judgement, because he is driven by ideology and then his time will run out. I think he want to see his picture on walls after the is gone as the great leader of China.

You are billionaire and spent your time picking fights on Twitter / X. Seems like a very dumb thing to do with your time if you are that rich and independent.

I watched the first episode of Night Country as it dropped and it is superb. Great backdrop, storyline and acting. TV at its finest.

Current valuations a actually should not matter that much over a 30 year period, it all about growth and longevity. Personally, I think the right answer over such a period is to buy and index or something that is likely to renew itself over time. The reason why I think renewal is critical is because the future over such a long period like 30 years is unknowable. my concern with some time like Berkshire is that the leadership as we know it will be gone (even Abel is not going to hang around that long) and they also have the coffee can approach which could end up burdening Berkshire with a lot of deadwood, unless they start to dump some business or spin them off over time. So my choice would be QQQ, or SPY or perhaps something like Investor AB or Exor which is designed as a Holdco and probably will refresh their holdings over time. I think some structural advantaged business like Railroads could work too, because I don’t think they will be disrupted in the next 30 years. I think the nifty fifty have