Spekulatius

TSMC

Sure, but I want to build cash in one of my tax deferred accounts. I don’t expect $C rise from the ashes to be without hiccups either.

Well NVDA is not a manufacturing company - they don’t build their own ships, they just design them.

Reduced $C a bit and sold my highest cost shares in $RI.PA

Yes, the gold rush analogy is a pretty good one. We don’t know how much gold rush is out there, but there is plenty of money sloshing around to buy shovel’s (NVDA chips). Eventually there will be an AI winter where funding dries up and only the most worthwhile projects and upstarts will receive funding. Thats a while out though.

lol. There are a bunch of live stream with $NVDA ticket now on YT.

Now that’s an development I did not expect, although a deal makes sense as there are quite a few synergies. I don’t think COF can afford to pay cash, so I think the deal is either stock for stock or stock and cash.

Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. I can see this becoming quite a political issue and if they expire, it’s going to be a huge headwind for stocks. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/buckle-2025-promises-be-historic-year-tax-and-budget-policy

The important thing is to start going in the right direction far enough that the average person see some tangible progress. That makes it likely that whoever is going to be elected next keeps doing the same thing.

The Hertz warrants are $4.37 while the stock is $7.37. I think the warrants are a very long dated call at a $13.8 strike with a 2051 date. I don’t think it’s that attractive unless you are very bullish about HTZ stock price.

For a cannibal to work, you need a cheap stock with a low earnings multiple not an expensive one. The best case scenario is that your cheap cannibal becomes an expensive compounder but then the buyback magic really doesn’t now worth any more - see AZO or AAPL.

Consensus forecast. Looks like consensus is for a loss in Q1, which is much weaker than last year. Part of the issue is with increased vehicle depreciation expenses due to used car prices becoming weaker apparently. I am surprised by the violent stock reaction and didn’t expect it just reading the earnings release.

$CAR down from ~$170 to $113 since discussed here. Weak operating results and a ton of leverage do this. I think 2024 results are going to be way down, it seems.

You must be looking at a different stock then. $AN last quarterly earnings were $5.04/ share and 2024 consensus forecast is for $19.3/ share which at $143 is a 7.4x PE.

Sold remainder of my CVS (in taxable account) and a smidge of VNT (in an tax deferred account low on cash)

It’s not just that, some analog devices can’t be miniaturized, because they don’t work binary. Sometimes you need to generate a certain current or power output and a too small device structure won’t be able to do with without overheating. Same with a sensor - if you want to capture some photons , you may need the receptive area to be of a certain size etc.

B21 public flight. Beautiful bird. Seems on schedule too:

I have pro, but got the 50% off, so it’s fairly cheap for me. I think beyond some lesser used features, the features are pretty much the same and if you are on the fence because of cost, just chose Plus - you can always switch later. Also get a referral code from an existing user. It might give you a discount, but I am not sure.

Some of their fabs run ~1um feature size process. Bleeding edge is 3nm or 0.003um feature size. 1 um is basically “steampunk” tech for semiconductors. It does mean it can’t be a good business, but I found it remarkable.

$FI - 37 years of double digit earnings growth. Who would have thought (I have a decent sized position )

I think it’s a pretty contrarian viewpoint to invest in China, just looking at the charts. If you want to see positive sentiment look at everything related to tech and AI - that’s a whole other level than buying something on dips and low metrics.

Merger agreements are always an interesting read, since they explain the background of the merger - in this case between APA and CPE. Looks like there were a total of 7 different suitors for CPE /Company A - G in discussions from late 2021 until 2024. Seems like everyone is talking to everyone else about combining Permian assets. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1841666/000119312524021134/d664038ds4.htm#toc664038_49

Reduced CNHI yesterday (they have earnings on 2/14) and MBB.DE (tender). Both did well for me.

Google Bard has become much better than ChatGPT when you stick to the free version.

What Einhorn is saying that starting in 2019 he realized that GM trading at a PE of 5 doesn’t matter, since they were not paying a large dividend or buying back a lot of stock back then. So shareholder yield (buyback and dividends ) was quite low, despite the low PE. He is now preferably looking at stocks with a high shareholders yield.