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Everything posted by Spekulatius
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What are you listening to ? (Music thread)
Spekulatius replied to Spekulatius's topic in General Discussion
Yeah, someone told me that the Kinks really invented hard rock and they may be true, just listening to this live performance. My mom told me about the Kinks - she said, they were it when the Beatles seemed old fashioned. And yes, a song from 1975 can qualify as old now almost 50 years later. -
If you watch his first livestreams, it’s pretty clear he knows what he was doing. He was buying cheap stocks that were beaten down and GME was one of them. He was buying basket of them and looking at balance sheets, charts and income statements etc . His stream changed later when it became mostly about about GME, the short squeeze thesis and later the reddit phenomenon. I’d also think his personally changed between then and now, but it’s hard o gage what is real and what is showmanship,
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I would not hold my breath for a response. If IB decides to do something, they just do it. I think their thinking is that revenues are mininimal and not worth the regulatory hassle. Also, a while ago, they made a huge loss when customers were manipulating stock prices on HK and they were left holding the bag on margin debt. HK had a few stocks tumbling 90% in one day which is the result of stock manipulation. Of course they could avoid the margin issue by making these stocks non- marginable, but I think they probably consider other issues too.
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What are you listening to ? (Music thread)
Spekulatius replied to Spekulatius's topic in General Discussion
Xcuse me but 2005 is not “old stuff” -
I do not think that China has a good reputation globally. They are an important trade partner especially for poorer countries in Africa who can’t be too picky, but I don’t think this means they are well liked. Dictators like them because they are just like the, and don’t judge them and also give them tools (surveillance tech, weapons etc) to help them stay in power.
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I watched Roaring Kitty‘s livestream on YT tonite and I think he could have some mental health issues. The livestream was a total dud, the stock fell like $8 during his stream and his ramblings were totally incoherent and made no sense whatsoever. It seems to me that all this craziness got in his head. I hope he is alright and stays grounded.
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It can change the outcome but GME is still a sh$tco albeit with a great balance sheet now. the comparison to Elon and Berkshire are quite hilarious. This is nothing but a penny stock promotion but at greater scale.
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Add to CNH (used to be CNHI) and ULTA.
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This nope_its_lily gal is a quant trader. Have been following her account on and off. She is not an “Ape”. I do think her posts are irony- she has done similar posts before.
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So as a former CoBf user, he should be grandfathered in except he ragedeleted his account ? This makes zero sense. Also substack is laughable as an alternative. First of all it’s long format content mostly and second most of the content is paywalled and you pay probably more than $50/ year to get access to content from one person. So the $50 in lifetime membership fee for thecobf.com looks very cheap compared to subscribing to substack. He may be right about user engagement declining here though. I think there are less posts than there used to be. It might be because the markets have been so boring and just slowly grinding up.
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Thats a nice gain - almost an 8 bagger in 4 years. Congrats.
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Biggest regrets of the older posters here?
Spekulatius replied to yadayada's topic in General Discussion
@frommi - I agree on Sinclair and basic stuff. Not sure about other things. On the cholesterol , I have high total cholesterol but also high good (HDL) cholesterol and this runs in the family, so is likely genetic. My mom weighs little more than 100 pounds, eats virtually no meat and still has high total cholesterol with high HDL as well, Another thing is that cholesterol rises with age as the ability of you liver to process food is diminishing. Like everything else with aging, it’s an uphill battle and what works when you are younger may not work any more 10 years later, I have found. FWIW, I am in my late 50‘s. -
Biggest regrets of the older posters here?
Spekulatius replied to yadayada's topic in General Discussion
@LearningMachine Sinclair claim’s are very controversial. Making rats live longer is pretty simple actually - you can do that simply by starving them basically. Some how, that idea never caught on with humans. Big brains has a good podcast on the topic of aging and it does not seem like there is a simple solution: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-brains/id1368737097?i=1000652857359 -
Biggest regrets of the older posters here?
Spekulatius replied to yadayada's topic in General Discussion
The Netflix documentary Blue Zones is worth watching. All those Blue zones combine a stress free live style with moderate physical activity and a solid social network. Dont forget the latter, people die, when they lose their purpose to live. We all know old people where a spouse dies and even do they seem healthy, they join them a few month later. Lack of social interaction is a killer too, just like stress. -
Because Starbucks stores are nothing special. Try the boutique coffee places which now exist in any larger town. Thats where you are going to see eye candy. I am uncertain about ULTA>LULU because I have never been to an ULTA store - not my thing, so I am just guessing here. I do like the stock however.
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The girls who go to these places come in all colors as far as I can tell. In my opinion ULTA>LULU> SBUX in term of stock attractiveness. Might even be true for the attractiveness of the girls who frequent these outfits.
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The key is how to deal with the losers and how early your recognize them and pull the plug imo. I think it’s important reduce the losses on losers by pulling the plug early then you can recycle your capital. Most stocks are not clear winners or losers over a let’s say five year timeframe - there is a huge gray area in between.
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I think it goes into WEB too hard pile.
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LOL. Putin is like any other dictator who kills of disidends over time. it’s clear he is as isolated than Hitler in his Wolfsschanze. On Abraham’s ranks, I agree they are not the right tool for Ukraine, too heavy, to thought to maintain, too plus tanks are vulnerable to attack from drones as it has been shown. they are breakthrough weapons who need to be protected from above and as this has become astairc war, they basically serve just as mobile artillery and are not of all that much use. the much simpler Bradley are much more useful. Ukraine will need an airforce to won this war. No major war has been won without air superiority since (and including ) WW1.
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Drone Companies that are off the beaten path
Spekulatius replied to Saluki's topic in General Discussion
Thats just a B2 that is swimming. -
Biggest regrets of the older posters here?
Spekulatius replied to yadayada's topic in General Discussion
Glad this thread was resurrected. The post form @rukawa contains timeless wisdom. I have found all of what he wrote to be true. -
Insurance Brokers (MMC, AON, AJG, WTW, BRO)
Spekulatius replied to tnathan's topic in General Discussion
The insurance brokers did trade down to ~20x earnings (not trailing but current earnings) just a year ago in early 2023. These corrections happen from time to time. Even then, it felt like I had to squint to buy some BRO shares (my only holding in that space). Correction happen with all socks, good or bad business and we will see them again for insurance brokers. On when the gravy train stops, my thinking is that it won’t for a while, because the market is so fragmented and will stay that way. One reason for this is that insurance is regulated by state so insurance contracts differ by state, which is something you quickly become aware of if you moved as much as I did. So even if you stay with one insurance co, your contract will differ from state to state, but in many cases, insurance cos will write insurance in one state, but not in another. Having different regulators and rules in 50 different states makes it harder to simplify insurance and moving it all online, which is why brokers play an important role. -
Definitely true as far as red slaw or even Lexington BBQ is concerned . I went to eat Lexington BBQ at Lexington BBQ. The place was packed, apparently all locals. They did a pretty good job with the meat, but I didn’t care too much for the somewhat bland taste of it. I prefer the NC mustard based sauces or the more spicy ones. Kannapolis is pretty nice - they did a good job in making the downtown area attractive.
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@dealraker might recognize that BBQ
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