Spekulatius

Listen to this masterpiece though. He runs the arc from his grandma, him becoming a baseball player, mental institutions, California homeless. It’s better than Lincoln’s Gettysburg address . Lincoln never made it on TV unlike Trump.

Also, it’s matter enough that the market is down 2% today. It’s also Taco Tuesday.

Pretty good analysis from Anders Puck Nielsen. I think he right that you cannot work with Trump trying to appease him. It might work short term but lead to more trouble long term. Just like trying to appease to a bully , it just doesn’t work. I think other politicians will figure it out. Trump is a one trick pony in many respects.

I added some CSU as well. Also, WDAY, HUBS and GTLB.

Yes, I agree as well. One of the best speeches from a politician that I am aware of this decade. And He is not just talking but doing the right things. Canada is lucky to have him. Europe should take notice. They also should do things together.

To be sure, if someone would come along like Trump to take away your stuff, threaten with war, you would get agitated too. But maybe the frog boiling is already happening with caps on interest rates , the government taking a piece of business for free or 25% of NVDA’s China revenues. What is the fundamental difference between rent control and a cap on interest rates? Philosophically and in terms of law, it’s pretty much the same thing. Except people call one thing communism and the other thing MAGA economics and the greatest thing ever.

Seems like Greenland is useless unless Canada plays ball. It also looks like Iceland is needed as well and it’s quite a bit more useful too. As well Svalbard (Spitzbergen).

I think when you put it all together Europe needs to work on three things. 1) defense sovereignty 2) digital sovereignty 3) energy sovereignty These three things would enable many other things . Energy sovereignty needs to involve nuclear power as well, because I don’t think renewables alone will get Europe there. These are all stretch goals but it’s important to get going . Even the right wing parties in most countries would agree to above goals, I think.

Yes, bond vigilantes are starting to show up in various countries . UK, Japan, Korea and to a lesser extent France, Germany. I think the reasons are lower economic growth and higher spending (Keynes). Seems to differ from country to country but Japan is particularly noticeable because currency is weak at the same time. In Japan the yield uptrend and currency decline has accelerated when Takaichi was elected in October 2025. She has proposed more spending and runs a populist platform.

Bond vigilantes in Japan. JP40Y at almost 4%. Something has to give somewhere, I think

It’s still the same way. Copilot is still not able to look into your spreadsheet or formulas and it works just like a typical help suggestion. It basically really just the old paperclip with a few upgrades but the paperclip looked better, imo. It‘s surprising how bad it is. I don’t get how people are concerned about all sorts of sticky software getting replaced by AI but not MSFT. I think Google might be able to build something with their own AI agent that helps with conversions and remove a big pain point and that could make MS Office vulnerable. Thats just one example how this could go.

It‘s a blunt weapon to own bonds and not likely to be drawn. What it does mean over the long run is that the USD loses reserve currency status over time. This means a weaker USD relative to other currencies. This will help fixing the trade deficit but also increase inflation.

There have been legit press releases before that were not posted on the WH website. Just saying. Reuters is typically reliable.

It’s not a letter, it was a text message from Trump that was released by the Norwegian government due to information disclosures laws. A lot of things seem too whacky to be true but you never know nowadays. I have shared my thoughts about Trump’s mental condition already and expect his anger and impulsiveness to become ever more dominant. I know for those who think highly of him, it’s all 4d chess.

What is the difference between a “structure down cycle” and a “cyclical down cycle” for a commodity? I am curious learn.

Some states in the US have exactly the same restrictions. MA being one of them.

New season of “The man in the high Castle “is out apparently.

So, ICE indeed has arrest quotas , regardless of the arrested being legit here or not. Show me the incentives and I show you the outcome. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/the-standoff-that-has-turned-minnesota-into-a-tinderbox-a3a7e672?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos3 BS incentives —> BS outcomes.

A President with early (or not so early ) onset dementia. It explains his erratic and increasingly angry behavior, his slouching walk and losing his train of thought repeatedly and sometimes in the middle of sentence as well as him dozing off in the middle of his meetings. Those are all typical indications of dementia. They are Ok sometimes and sometimes they go completely off the rails. One thing is sure, it doesn’t get any better. Biden back the slowed down during his presidency , Trump does not but gets more erratic and unpredictable. Both are common indications of early onset dementia.

I only follow battery tech loosely. My background is material science, not that it helps really much. Even if you are en expert, it hard to really judge where the tech is going as several material combinations and equally important differnt formulations are competing here. Whatever the outcome silver has cost and also some toxicity issues , which is why it’s not a forerunner in my opinion, at least not for mass market applications.

Free speech for parrots, foul mouthed or otherwise:

MAA, CPT, PSA.

All these arguments that Greenland is needed for US security are rubbish. China want to sent ships to America, they already can do this through the Pacific Ocean. There is a absolutely no reason to go over the treacherous route near Greenland. Same for Russia. They have several routes already from Murmansk to Wladiwostok. Nuclear attack submarines can tunnel dive under the north polar ice cab. American subs have demonstrated this in the late 50’s. But then again, Russia isn’t a real threat any more or is this not true? It can’t be both? It’s all BS. One day, it’s needed for national security, another day it’s for minerals. it’s just a pretense just like with drugs. most drugs get smuggled over the US Mexican birder. If Trump wanted to fix this, he would just install all the advanced equipment and put the people needed in place to inspect every truck, train and car that crosses. This would not be easy but sure be easier than to attack any country in the world where drug come from of that smuggle drugs etc because the US happens to be the largest market for this stuff. And for sure, he would not pardon one of the largest drug dealers in ever because he was treated to harshly all of a sudden. https://www.npr.org/2025/12/02/nx-s1-5628382/trump-pardons-honduran-ex-president-juan-orlando-hernandez The amount of nonsensical stuff that this administration puts out to explain the increasingly erratic actions is quite something but for sure not 4 D chess .

I have worked for a few companies but none without Office. Out of the office suite I could live without all apps (Word, Power Point) but not without Excel. Excel is sacrosanct, not because it so great but be she everyone uses it and there are billions of spreadsheets that might have issues upon conversion. I do think AI bots could take some pain points regarding conversion away but then again, why would you do it? I will happy dance on the grave of SharePoint however.

This sounds like general adjustment . To do so, the employees need to be classified (engineers l admins, managers etc) and a general business process needs to apply the approved change to each employees based on a matrix set up. Just my opinion, but a manager I talked to said that management wants to make across the board increases to salary as difficult as possible to avoid age inflation. The software setup probably reflects that. Anyways some users that complain about WDAY missing that the true customers are HR and management, not the individual users. The company I work for runs hiring (most large companies do nowadays), learning system, review system and salary via a link with ADP (which processes the paychecks). I think most companies switched to WDAY from SAP and Oracle modules and those were clunky.