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Everything posted by Spekulatius
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I guess the music stopped at some point.
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My son plays piano. He actually plays on a Roland F-120 digital piano. It worked well for us since we moved 2 times (first time from the west coast to the East coast). I chose it, because it was had the most piano like action I could find on a digital piano for the low cost. He also plays Sax (Alto sax) for a coupe of years and plays at the schools Jazz band. He got the hang of it quite good (played at an open Mike night at school) and recently hit us up for a better Sax. He has a Yamaha Yas23 , which we bought used when hr started and now seems ready for a better instrument
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Russia is 30% for non residents and 13% for residents, so it depends on how long your stay. https://www.expatica.com/ru/finance/taxes/a-complete-guide-to-taxes-in-russia-104125/ If you are US citizen it doesn’t matter since you need to pay US taxes on foreign income anyways, which is unique in the world. The German tax authorities don’t give a hoot about income earned in foreign countries if you live there regardless of your citizenship status.
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Buffett/Berkshire - general news
Spekulatius replied to fareastwarriors's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
These guys are slimy. Every fight with the regulator tends to be a lost one. Good riddance. -
I am pretty sure that fraud is pretty low on the totem pole of priories for startups in the land grabbing phase like Airbnb. I am sure they can solve it, but this is probably reserved for later. For credit cards, I found Chase and Amex to be very good at fraud detection. In two cases, my wife’s Chase card was apparently skimmed and used for a small test charge (~$1), which they immediately detected as a fraud, despite the fact that it was done in relative proximity to our home location. Same with Amex in one incidence.
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This move of yours makes great sense to me personally, Cardboard, It seems like Mr. Market has moved into a state of mania, since the beginning of October. We'll likely just get less returns on our long positions going forward. I have right now a feeling of Deja Vu comparable to what happened mid April 2015. It was basically all downhill from there until the early part of February 2016, October 2015 being quite brutal at some point. - - - o 0 o - - - Unfortunately, I personally can't do something like that, for legal and tax reasons. It’s a slow melt up and could go on for a while. I bought a few puts a while ago, which will expire worthless. I think early next year may be a good time to hedge the portfolio again. FWIW, I bought a bit of CTVA finally, as I finally got my price.
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Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first. Why is that? Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia. So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it. I missunderstood your post. I thought it was about a wealthy lawyer considering to relocate to Russia, which makes no sense. In case you got a job assignment, it’s like everything else with a $1M + in income, you can live pretty well in Russia, but you won’t do too shabby in London either. FWIW, the top marginal tax rate in the UK is 45% not 55-60% as you stated, vs Russia 30%.
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Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first.
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It’s similar in Germany, corporate taxes aren’t much higher there than in the US. Also, health care isn’t free either, it’s paid for in taxes, which is a capped tax of 15.5%, 8.2% paid by the insured and 7.3% is paid by the employer. It’s not free by any means.
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I agree with respect to Europe. It would certainly be helpful to actually have lived and worked or at least travelled there before coming to a conclusion. The mean (statistically) Joe in Germany is better of than the mean Joe in the US, that’s for sure. The averages are heavily tilted by the top 5% and those are better of in the US, than Germany or France, I give you that.
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What is your take on deep OTM index puts vs deep OTM individual security puts. I won't mention names, because that could redirect the focus to specific company talk, but wouldn't it perhaps make a better setup to cherry pick the most endangered of species? We can all use our(relatively speaking) more sophisticated investing insights to basketize(I might have just made up a new word) the same general hedge trade, no? An index will never go to 0, but select securities can. I've been doing the OTM put stuff now for the past few months with pretty decent success(not to lose sight of the fact that you and others Ive noticed have been doing the same but with the index and VIX), so Im just trying to see where the greatest risk/reward setup is. Would a subjectively selected Warren basket outperform the broader index which would also include names that benefit, IE healthcare? I prefer Index puts to be on market movements (both up and down ) for two of reasons 1) index outs are cheaper and more liquid 2) in a sharp downturn, everything tends to get correlated and so the cheaper puts give you more bang for the buck and allow for better trading
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You guys just need to by deep out of the money index puts. I think it’s probably a good idea at the right time. The economy is slowing down, manufacturing even in the US is already in a contraction and yet stocks are at record level, seemingly unconcerned about this and the political risk. Or perhaps buy some gold as a cash alternative in case central banks go even more bonkers than they do already.
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I bet you can, but most honest people wouldn't do that. Keep in mind though that you're effectively charging back Air BNB. Just because you charge it back doesn't mean that you don't owe money anymore. I would request a refund in a heart beat in this situation. I use Amex for most purchases where I don’t know the vendor well and they are very good about getting you your money back; a simple phone call will do. If AirBnb would throw me out so be it. My wife can sign up for a new account if I really think I need it, or I go to VRBO.
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Oil and gas has underperformed in the US just as much as they did in Canada. Have you looked at the shale stocks in the US? I almost think if Warren would ban fracking (or try to because I only think the respective states could do so and they wouldnt) the E&P stocks would go up, because at least NG would shot up in price. It’s almost like the gun industry and Obama, which did much better under Obama than Trump. Anyways, Canada has a huge resource industry representation in the stock market and lacks high tech and that why the market has underperformed, not because of the Government in place. We probably should get back on topic and discuss bubbles or lack there off.
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^ A big thanks to the authorities (Viking and Cigarbutt) for going through the earnings release. It saves me quite a bit of time. As I mentioned in the “what did you buy today” thread, I reentered FFH in a small way for a trade. I think $480-500 are possible. The results are a post I’ve surprised to me, I expected a loss in book value and they gnerwtrd a small gain. I am a bit concerned about the increased leverage (at the holding level) which in conjunction with their substantial equity holdings (as a percentage of equity) makes this quite a leveraged bet, compared to for example BRK or an insurer like RE or TRV. (RE is more of a single line insurer with large catastrophe exposure, so they have a different kind of risk).
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The bubble may not within the equity market, it’s want in the equity markets either in 2007, when valuations were actually lower than they are now. The bubble is most likely related to some lending, could be European real estate (bubble due to low or non existent interest rates ) or the whole negative yielding bond markets which are trillions of Euro in size. One could argue that this is a bigger bubble than the subprime mortgages were in 2007.
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stupid comment. if you have single class shares and pick the right guy, he stays and we all make money. if you have a single class shares and you pick the wrong guy, you can fire him and stop losing money. either way dual class shares is stupid for shareholders. I totally agree. Right guy or wrong, guy, the dual class shares make no sense.
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Sold my NOW trading shares. Is it just me - I think the new CEO Bill McDermott with his tinted glasses and bling watch looks more like a strip club owner than a CEO.
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No drugs, booze or tobacco in Berkshire’s portfolio unfortunately. The most profitable business or those that kill people slowly.
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It’s also notable that with a regulated industry, it really cannot be correct that only PCG is too blame. Capex and operational expenses need to go through the regulator. I don’t think if PG&E had asked for $10B to harden the grid in 2015 because of inherent fire danger, they would not have gotten approval to do so. Same with tree trimming to some extend. The ball is really in the Californians government court to change the rules. I am pretty sure that BHE would be interested to invest, given the right framework and some cap and liabilities. Note that PCG actually produced pretty good numbers before the first disaster in 2017, due to expanding rate bases from the switch to renewables, which also raised electricity bills for customers quite a bit. I think there is way more to come of the latter. The best action may be for the CA government to take control of PCG and then work on creating a framework that makes the utility investible for the private sector again.
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In my humble opinion, this is another example of the brilliance displayed by Mr. Buffett and his model. He is in a position to negotiate without having actually entered the negotiation process as (I imagine) he would look for some kind of partnership where the public entity would be responsible for a reinsurance type of excess loss deal on past and future wildfires' damages. I'd say he will pretend to have no real interest but he may have defined the price he's ready to pay and the mantle of protection required already with the potential to close a transaction at a lightning speed. PG&E could be a great deal for BRK, because Berkshire has both utility management, insurance capacity and expertise and the ability to write a Check worth tens of billions of $. There is really no competition out there who can even Doo all three.
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Yes, Libra seems an oxymoron since the main allure of a cryptocurrency is no supervision by any institution, least a central bank. Also ( and related to above) they are useful for money laundering( or what the government defines as such). I think FB should have issued a token, not a currency or should have sold it as a token, even if it acts as a currency. Just bad marketing all around.
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Without stating the name, what's your favorite stock?
Spekulatius replied to nspo's topic in General Discussion
Mine owns a gym and a lot of lockers.