Spekulatius

I also added some DD at $65 and change today. Had bought a 2nd lot a few days ago, but sold it immediately flat when the tape turned soft. It looks like this stock is going to see $63 again in short order, but you never know. Added a bit more DD today. I also added for the umpteenth time MEGACPO.MX. Starting to get towards my max. Position size here.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. Word of advice...this is a highly promoted stock at tier 4 brokerage houses and to date, the company has been very eager to use any sort of share price bump to raise capital. Note, that's what they all do, some just more regularly than others. Thanks for the color. I have no idea what a Tier 4 brokerage is, but I suspect that these are the dinky outfits that recommend and pump microcaps? Anyways, the way I see it CR P has maybe 2-3 quarter of cash left, which means that they probably raise in the next 3 month or 6 month at the very latest. Typically buying ahead of a secondary is not a winning proposition.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though.

I also added some DD at $65 and change today. Had bought a 2nd lot a few days ago, but sold it immediately flat when the tape turned soft. It looks like this stock is going to see $63 again in short order, but you never know.

Sold some FOX, just in case we get another round trip to $30.

I think I would rather deal with the Russian than the Saudi corruption. Valuation are much ore forthcoming too and in Russia, We know what to expect. From what I read, the rich cronies in the SA upper crust are more or less forced to invest, which probably tells you all one needs to know about this. Perhaps this stock is interesting at some point in the future after a steep selloff. For now, it probably should go into the “too hard” or “yuck” file.

The article states that growth has outperformed for at least 25 years. So in a way, one could say that the timeframe from 2002 to 2007 was the aberration, not the time since 2008. Maybe investors systematically underestimate the propensity of growth to persist and business disruption and overestimate the ability of business to reverse to the former mean?

I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it.

Sold part of my SDI today. Stock popped due to proposed merger with the 50.1% sub TPB. I wish I could have accumulated more SDI, but I take what I get.

The podcast with Prem is way too much of a love fest for my taste. I haven’t listened to podcast with Smith from FDX yet but he feels a little bit delusional to me regarding AMZN in his CC.

The position at that point was limited to 80% only because otherwise, FRE and FNM would have to be consolidated on the governments balance sheet, which would ave cracked the debt ceiling (at least that’s what I recall). Anyways, I have spent more than 2 h on this and still don’t know what to make of it. I think it’s basically a political bet and if the political wind blows in a different direction going forward before it is privatized, I think the status remains as is, which pretty much would be the best for any stakeholder (government, homeowner) but the current shareholders. That’s why this is an “oddball” and not a regular value investment, imo.

Most of the contributors have their own micro website/ communities, which cost extra. SA gets a cut from them. I am not saying that it doesn’t make sense to pay $20/ month, but I don’t think it’s a great value given that the quality of the freeware commentators is far below what you can find on other message board, including here.

FNMAS is hard to handicap, as it is basically a political bet. It could be anything from a zero to a 3 bagger. It appeals to a certain type of investors but not others.

Can't say I understand the RH purchase. CEO touting a new business model with magical 50+% ROIC for a furniture retailer, while borrowing heavily to repurchase shares and battling short sellers. I guess that RH is a Weschler or Combs purchase, based on the size. One thing to consider is that the Berkshire folks should know a thing or two about furniture retail, since BRK owns a few furniture retailer (Nebraska furniture Mart, Jordan etc). So I am guessing Weschler/Combs and Buffet know the lay of the land in furniture retailing fairly well.

WFCF (food / meat certification business), which finally showed some decent earnings and better operating metrics. I was following the stock for quite some time and liked the business, but wasn’t comfortable with valuation and execution until after the recent earnings report, which showed some promise. DD (bought back some shares again).

Added some MEGACPO.MX as it mysteriously went down ~4% intraday. Another recent buy is HDG.AS ( leading manufacturer of blinds/ window coverings) , a Geoff Gannon / Focusedcompounding Puck.

FWIW, as far as telecom/broadband/video is concerned I think the US/CA and to some extend Mexico is the exception from the rule, while Europe is the norm. In Europe for example telecom and TV was run by state owned monopolies, which even when privatized did not allow for escalating prices like in the US. TV for example was free in Europe, even satellite TV, it was solely ad supported. Once you start there, it becomes pretty hard to charge the equivalent of $100/month for it.

CCU is the one from the list that I am familiar with. They have been struggling due to issues in Argentine, before the hell broke lose in Chile. Chile has been trading at a premium compared to the rest of the continent for a long time and that premium may not be justified any more. I think the assumption that this unrest may just blow over is unjustified.

It’s interesting that this ETF is near the 2009 low, yet nothing looks really cheap. I looked at BCH and it trades at around 11x earnings and a 2x P/B. I think I‘d rather buy WFC. If I were a millennial, I would say “meh”.

If it could be Russian Roulette - where is the bullet? A few degrees warmer is going to kill us all? It’s not going to kill us all, but it can kill a lot of people directly and indirectly. Not to worry, most of us will be long dead before the consequences set in.

It’s interesting to think about who you are up against, if you try short term or daytrading.

Here is an excerpt from an interesting article from Taleb: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370?s=21 I like the way he thinks about risk generally.

I like Quickfs.net. I heard about it on focusedcompoundings podcast (Jeff Gannon, Andrew Kuhn) It works extremely well for getting Snapshot at the 10 year financials. I peruse the free version. https://quickfs.net/company/BRK.B:US

I am surprised that WEB isn’t more interested in pipelines, since the FERC regulation is often more favorable than utility regulation. He did indeed buy some pipeline assets in 2001 or so post the IPP crash from Williams and I believe one from Dynegy (which bought it from Enron shortly before and then they got into trouble themselves). I believe he laid around 8x EBITDA for utility like assets, which was cheap. Now we have pretty decent pipeline companies valued at 10x EBITDA (maybe a bit less even) when interest rates are much much lower. Might be a time for them to at least start looking.