Spekulatius

The US is a lot Europe in terms of economic diversity - in Europe you have Munich and Luxembourg on one side and Greece and Southern Italy on the other. In the US you have the Rich areas like the Bay Area and NYC and poor areas like Kentucky and Mississippi etc. You just have more cultural glue to hold the US together compared with Europe.

Tequila (CUERVO.MX) Artificial body parts and organs Space Technology Housing in Texas

If only they were. I cannot sell or buy ASFI anymore even though I just hold 100 shares worth $1000 .. Admittedly I had a larger position in the past but even then I wasn’t close to owning 1% which would be 65k shares - a position worth a few hundred k and three weeks of trading volume .. Margin rates can be negotiated. Just threaten to leave for lower margin rates at IB and see how your broker respond. They may not exactly match IB‘s rate but probably close enough. A bunch of CoBF people have previously tried to persuade me that IB is the best thing since the sliced bread. Now I'm gonna gloat and say "I told you so". 8) No, I'm gonna say: "Sorry you guys are having these issues". :'( The margin rates are too good to move away from. I only know how to buy and sell equities. I haven't even explored 99.9% of the tools being offered.

1) I think multiples in Europe have compressed over the years. They were quite richly valued in early 2000’s and valuations have come down. 2) Overall, quality is lower, as measured by ROIC. Demographics are worse, but with export oriented economies, that’s not necessarily a restriction to growth. 3) There is less of a shareholder culture in Europe. most Europeans hold no or very little stock and there is no 401k equivalent. Large buyers like this tend to create a steady bid and that. is missing in Europe. 4) I recently looked at some very LT performance numbers and based on memory, since the DAX was created in 1990, the index is up by about 7.8x, which is quite similar to SP500, so over the longer term, at least the German index has performed equivalent. That said, it outperformed in the 1990 and underperformed since the GFC. It’s similar to emerging markets and I think the correlation is no coincidence. 5) The financial sector is permanently impaired . Banks, but also life insurers etc. are impaired by a combination of negative interest rates and competition.

^ Another thing for my bucket list. Probably worthwhile to visit before it gets on the radar door for international tourism.

I find it interesting that so many people use leverage 10 years into a bull market. I was aggressive up to 2012, then again in late 2015 and at the end of 2018 but now I try to keep a healthy amount of cash to be able to pounce whenever I see some great setups.

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA.

This is probably #1 for me as well. His speech at the University of Florida in 1998 was particularly instructive: For this little nugget of wisdom, I am eternally grateful. His speech at the University of Florida in 1998 was one of his best. Just this timeless excerpt: https://www.tilsonfunds.com/BuffettUofFloridaspeech.pdf I am on my second pint of microbrew now and for a totally unrelated reason also bumping long forgotten threads.

LOL My atheist grandma was supposedly on her deathbed and the catholic run hospital sent a priest to for the last rites. My grandma became furious and noticed that this “ alter Bock” wore a wig amongst all thing. She chased him out swearing in her Berlin accent from her bed calling him out. She lived on for another decade. she is my family hero. Mine are: 1) Stay healthy enough to enjoy good wine and beer 2) Survive another year 3) go to 1) again and repeat as long as possible

By mitigated, I meant: - no foreseeable route schedules or flight volumes will be impacted as they had a mitigation plan in place. Indeed they expect an increase in bookings and revenue this quarter. - the impact of the 737 MAX not making schedule is a 4-6% operating cost increase. They have negotiated one settlement with boeing on financial compensation to offset this, and have future talks teed up. Issues like this are temporary if you are a buy-and-hold 3-5-10 year kind of investor. What are the consequences, if this bird never flies again? LUV would need to change their plain procurement and costs would probably be permanently higher be sure now they would need to fly multiple aircraft rather than one. Also, in the case, that the 737 max does not fly again, I expect Boeing to restructure and possibly declare bankruptcy. The main reason ai think so is because they loaded up their supply chain with unsold planes and are probably liable for inventory not just in their possession, but also for their suppliers. This scenario isn’t that likely, but I think it is way higher then the probabilities assigned by Mr Market currently. The fact is that Boeing designed an aerodynamically unsound plane with that is stabilized by shoddy software. They can fix the software, but does it make the plane sound? What would happen if a other bird falls from the sky after the FAA approves it to fly again? LUV uses only Boeing planes, so they are tied to the mast, so to speak.

Hilti used to be a public company and traded on the Swiss exchange. Trumpf is a Family owned business with a very long term focus. They developed their own photonics Technology for their lasers (the modules are build in NJ/US) in order to control the whole value chain. I don’t think they are likely to sell out. Well, BRK could buy IPGP. ;) Yes, that would be a great company for Buffet to look at. I am guessing there are folks within Berkshire’s operations that understand IPGP’s market position and moat. I have no idea if IPGP’s board would entertain a sale - the company is still founder driven to some extent.

Yeah, the market seems very much like 1999 now. I think there is a generation of investors at work that is either on autopilot using ETF’s and index funds or driven by narratives rather than fundamental valuations. Great business/CEO, great product, high customer retention, but outlandish valuations and operating losses shock no one. I also note that more and more fund managers and CEO note how important it is to “tell a story”. While good communication always has value, I would like the numbers do most of the talking. I do agree it could go on for a while, but generally speaking it’s time to worry when nobody else does.

Now I remember that Chuck Akre was in the “Invest like the best podcast”, where he explained his three legged stool approach and how they came about AMT. As I recall, they had a position before the stock declined substantially, which they used to average up in. http://investorfieldguide.com/akre/

Hilti used to be a public company and traded on the Swiss exchange. Trumpf is a Family owned business with a very long term focus. They developed their own photonics Technology for their lasers (the modules are build in NJ/US) in order to control the whole value chain. I don’t think they are likely to sell out.

How is the 737 max issue mitigated? LUV is basically a single aircraft airline and their low cost position is partly build around this. If this bird never flies or is impaired in terms of resale, what is going to be their upgrade path?

I have various accounts and my overall estimate is close to 30% return. Stock picking was so so, but some trading around (DD, CTVA, NOW, AMZN etc) really helped. The setup this year was pretty good with the decline in fall 2018, similar to 2015. If I could settle this year for an 8% return, I would take it.

This is an interesting quote from this article. I can’t say I follow this advice. My buys and sells are mostly based on valuation with perhaps a short term focus on momentum (letting winners run). I also tend to sell if a stock goes up substantially without change in corroborating news or fundamentals. Sometimes, it pays, and sometimes I leave money on the table, especially in bull markets. When markets seesaw and volatility is high, the buying /selling works very well. Also, if not selling based on fundamentals, what other guidelines is one using? Every single time I have sold a great business for valuation reasons I've regretted it. I think the alternative option is to hold great businesses as long as they're great. I have seen both. To some extend, I was playing the 1999/2000 tech bubble and I really didn’t regret anything I sold back then. Many would have lost 90% back. Even with great companies like MSFT, which did. put out good numbers all along, the multiple regression caused substantial losses that took a decade to make up. Current examples are a bunch or SAAS companies or even something like DIS. While I agree thwt DIS has great assets, I do wonder if the stock surge of ~30% has overextended the stock. The streaming competition is going to be tough and DIS estimates thwt it will take a few years to just break even. Then the cash machine ESPN is becoming a wasting assets. So what we have is a stock that may not have any earnings growth for a couple of years, yet trades at ~27x earnings ($5.2 earnings estimate for 2020), which is far above it’s historical range. I‘d rather own FOX or CMCSA Right now at far lower valuations and that’s indeed where I swapped proceeds from DIS sales into. This may turnout out to be a mistake, but I think it is a value approach and protects downside. I think a lot folks that talk about great business here have not really experience when the multiple compression bear raises its ugly head.

I have two bets that are a good risk reward: 1) DD, stock hasn’t budged despite value unlock of the nutraceutical business 2) MEGACPO.MX - relatively cheap mexican cable co. Low debt and owner operated. I think this will do well, if the Mexican economy does better.

This is an interesting quote from this article. I can’t say I follow this advice. My buys and sells are mostly based on valuation with perhaps a short term focus on momentum (letting winners run). I also tend to sell if a stock goes up substantially without change in corroborating news or fundamentals. Sometimes, it pays, and sometimes I leave money on the table, especially in bull markets. When markets seesaw and volatility is high, the buying /selling works very well. Also, if not selling based on fundamentals, what other guidelines is one using?

"They are endless money pits" - Scotty Kilmer If you want reliable, no-brainer cars and you like the design, I would go with Toyota. Most of the Hondas are great as well. Recent Mazdas are great value for money, reliable almost as the Toyotas, have very nice design(I love them). Also consider Hyundai/Kia - very good value/features etc.. If you are willing to spend more or want more premuim brands, check out Lexus/Acura/Genesis. Especially Genesis can be a great value second hand. Avoid anything German, specially premium German(Mercedes/BMW/Audi), unless you really like them. Also better avoid anything with CVT or Dual Clutch transmissions. They tend to have many problmes and are expensive to repair. Do you have any specific models in mind? What is your budget? Willing to buy second hand? Size/shape(passenger/SUV?). I wouldn’t trust Scotty Miller. I think he may be paid by Toyota. Toyota is very good at marketing it’s crappy cars through self media. I remember one day Scotty said his son bought a new Toyota Tacoma and expected to keep it for decades. If you check Consumer reports or other car review channels, you can see that the new Tacoma is one of the least reliable pickup truck on market. Its highest end TRD PRO off road trim is also a complete joke. Search for a YouTube video for Honda Ridgeline base model driving into Death Valley Race Track, with a Tacoma TRD as the support vehicle and see what happened. The Tacoma’s all four suspension exploded after 6 miles while the Ridgeline base model made it back in the end with tiny leaks in one suspension. Scotty Kilmer has a video out there “Why not to buy a new Toyota Camry”, so if he is paid by Toyota, he doing a bad job promoting the brand. Anyways, I have never heard of him before and I am surprised anyone would take your tube opinions as a gospel?

Bought some more DD (swapping some of my my CTVA sales proceeds I to this). One of my better ideas for 2020. Feels like tax loss selling is causing the weakness.

It’s hard to beat free access to Morningstar via your Public library.

I have bought (and sold) cars as well as a motorcycle on Craigslist, but you really have to be careful there. There are a lot of crooks and tire kickers there. I almost look at the person who is going to buy or sell more so than at the vehicle before ai buy. If the person looks shady, I would walk away no matter what the deal with the vehicle is.

Since we moved to the NE, I bought a basic model Subaru Forester new. We paid $25k. It has been a great ride. Used cars arn’t as good as a deal relative to new cars as they used to be before the GFC. For Subaru’s, you can do better buying new, imo.

I still think that even if the absolute odds or probability is not knows, the Kelly formula is reasonably to determine A) Maximum bet size B) sizing bets relative to each other Apparently, the input size are based on estimating the odds, probabilities for each investment and each investor cannot have a precise estimate of each, but they should have an estimate of odds and probabilities nonetheless, as it it better than following the guts so to speak. At least in my opinion it is.