Spekulatius

It sounds like Texas prefers to pay $5-10B every decade or so, while also sitting in the cold for a week or so, rather than investing $8B once and be done with it.

I like koyfin, but like tikr.com much more so. Tikr.com gets its data from Capital IQ. You also may be able to get access to capital IQ directly from your library. For example, the Boston Library gives access to Capital IQ remotely for the duration of the pandemic. I am not sure how long it last, but for the time being, I have used Capital IQ through my Boston library account remotely for a few times.

You should not generalize across Europe. In Lithuania anyone above 70 can get vaccine already and possibly even above 65. To be fair, Lithuania is still way behind US. There is a difference between “you can sign up to get the vaccine” and actually getting it. My dad is in the highest priority group due to age, yet can’t effectively get the vaccine at this point. The reasons are simple, lack of vaccine and lack of effective distribution. I probably could manage this for him if I were around, but from a distance across the ocean and not being intimately familiar with the process there, I can’t help him much. The mistake that the state bureaucracy does (imo) is not allow the primary physicians to give a vaccine shots. They could easily do it, but the bureaucracy has decided that a centralized distribution via mass vac sites is fairer, except for the fact that older people without internet and car effectively can’t get it done. The whole village were I grew up (1100 people, pretty rural) is full of old people and very few of them are vaccinated. Of course every country is different but that’s the situation on the ground in Germany pertaining to my dad.

Maybe we should avoid to politicize this thread and just stick to the topic of this poll and avoid an epidemic of sh1tposts. Just got back from my CVS appointment and all went well so far. Picking the second shot first to play their booking system caused a bit of an issue at registration but that was fixable and medically speaking the shots are the same. While my state has an elaborate prioritization for who gets the vaccine first, my casual observation of the demographics in the waiting line is that we are already in the "free for all phase", regardless of what the local state rules claim. Or perhaps my small sample size of ~15 people wasn't representative - I was by far the oldest in the line and ahead of my were a bunch of ~20 year old girls who seemed to know each other well (soccer team?).

For me, getting vaccinated for COVID-19 is a decision with a wide margin of safety: 1) risk of serious side effects after vaccination: few ppm (1/ millions) 2) chance of having serious side effects (ICU visit, death) after infection a few percent or ~10,000 ppm Now we need to put in the distributions for moderate side effects after vaccination or getting infected but i think those skew in favor of the vaccine too. Than, last there is a risk of getting infected, which i think over time is going to be very high, almost approaching one. Those are just the individual health benefits not the societal ones which are suppressing the infection to unvaccinated, easier travel etc. Anyways that's how I look at. Due to the nature of the disease (stealthy due to asymptomatic infection and time lag) as well as the high R0 rate it is unlikely that we eradicate COVID-19 ever. I think COVID will become endemic. I also believe we will get an vaccine update probably next year to enhance the profile against the troublesome mutant variants.

Interesting, my wife is a nurse too (frontline workers and deals a lot with COVID-19 patients) but that got my nothing. It is probably because she works at various hospitals as a contractor. The strange thing is that many nurses refuse to take the vaccine themselves (~30-40% in my wife's group).

I would be interested to know what makes all of your eligible to get the vaccine. I thought I am one of the older guys here being in my mid fifties. Are hedge fund managers and financial advisors now a preferred group? I haven't seen anything on that regard in my state. ;D I became eligible just a few days ago because I work in the medical supply chain (CO2 filters for respirators etc.). I booked an appointment for today and had to work the system at CVS because I was unable to simultaneously book a first and second appointment because there were no second ones available. So I signed up for my second shot in the system to get going. I think this was mentioned upstream as a workaround. Hopefully it works out. The system in MA here sucks, but what really sucks is Europe. My parents are 79 and 84 and no visibility on when to get the vaccine. That's one thing that Trump's Warp speed team did largely right, they bet on the right vaccines and ordered quite a bit of them. Maybe not quite enough and could have been done better but also could have been a whole lot worse. Compared to Europe, we are in great shape as far as vaccine's are concerned.

I think my holdings of $LMT and $NOC have a quicker solution, but the crew would have to leave the ship first.

Why get inoculated for polio or hepatitis? Because the cost/benefit ratio is extraordinary. This can get ugly fast so let's not make quick judgement. Hopefully he makes an informed decision and that's it. It still his decision. Valuearb, I think asking why never is not an option is totally fair. In my age range, there have been 5485 deaths over the past year (per CDC). Whats more is that a lot of the people who die from Covid either have pre-existing conditions such as obesity, high blood pressure etc which I don't have. The average vaccine takes years to pass between different stages of the approval process. This one got approved in less than a year. Furthermore, in the US you have no legal recourse if there are long term effects from the vaccine. If you are eager to get the vaccine that's your choice, if I choose not to that's mine. I agree choosing not to should be an option in a poll. The goal of a poll is to find out how people think, not to lead the outcome or to judge. We can do the latter in the commentary ;D

Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today. If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position. My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language Is this the one that shipped painted rocks instead of copper to Asia last month? Down another 6% in Turkey today. In addition to the inherent volatility, you also have currency swings - the Turkish Lira alone has swung by almost 20% back and forth in a just a few month. Too bad the WSB crowd can’t trade this , I imagine it would be fun

Not a bad idea Imo. It’s a pretty cheap stock with decent growth potential going forward and pays a nice dividend as well. Ping An also should befit from higher interest rates - since the Yuan is coupled to the USD, I expect the Internet rated in China to go up as well.

Ticker Symbol is RYSAS. Down 10% today. If the situation in Turkey continues and Pabrai doesn´t sell, I will start a position. My strategy is to clone Pabrai here because there are no annual reports or financial statements in English, is all in Turkish Language This was $0.75 in 2016, $0.65 in May 2019, $12.75 in Jan 2020, and $6.75 today. Is this a cryptocurrency? I guess you are supposed to scream "Allahu Akbar" when you push the buy button for this security.

In principle, JPM and peers could turn down deposits? Now that would be interesting - we have enough money, we don’t want yours, take it somewhere else

Owning a house is “safer” with a 30 year fixed rate debt in a sense. If rates go up, the value of your house may go down, but the value of your fixed rate mortgage will go down even more, so it hedges in this situation. Cash flow wise, you are better of, if the higher rates are caused by higher inflation, compared to renting where you likely would have to pay higher rents. If rates go down, you just refinance and lower the cost of your mortgage. Your house will likely go up in value unless the lower rates go hand in hand with a recession. There won’t be a problem as long as you can service your mortgage. In both cases, you have somewhat of a hedge against changes in the value of your asset caused by interest rate changes, due to the optionality provided by the fixed rate mortgage. If you are in a nonrecourse state, you also have the put option to hand the key to your house to the mortgage owner, which is particular appealing if you loaded your house under the roof with debt before the house values tank.

if I were a client of Bridgewater, I would worry more about their performance than the change in world order.

I looked at both S-1 and I can come to terms with CPNG but what is really OSCR business model, is it like LMND for health insurance. Their numbers look atrocious. Both GOOG health care IPO‘s AMWL and OSCR look underwhelming to me.

Human bias: Imagine two different scenarios and determine which one make people feel better 1) 2% inflation and you get a 2% raise 2) 2% deflation and you get a 2% payout. I bet that people will accept 1) and go in arms over 2). The preference of inflation over deflation is just human bias/ how the brain works.

^ I don’t think this is correct. If this were correct, Robinhood would be truly a bucket shop.

VNT looks interestingly GARP-y. Well we have a thread about this. it is currently overearning due to the upgrade cycle for gas stations coming to an conclusion, but I think it will transform over time. It got the DHR heritage and that means they are likely good operators and capital allocators. I am expecting them to exercise the right to buy out Tritium, the manufacturer of EV chargers. https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/vnt-vontier/msg433727/#msg433727

My recent adds were BABA and spin-off VNT.

To put in sanity checks like this, you don’t need a blockchain at all.

Any insight into what caused that momentary spike in MMAC share price today? I have no idea. It is a thinly traded stock and there were some sellers just a few days ago when a leadership change was announced, but the stock since has bounced back. The 10-k is supposed to get filed soon. Perhaps someone knows something, perhaps not. Anyways, I cashed my few shekels from the short term trade and moved on.

MMAC and CRBBF (Corby).

I agree that Rocket Labs looks great compared to Virgin Galactic, but that’s not a high hurdle. Rocket Labs is an interesting company to watch for sure.