Spekulatius

Reduced GD a little. I feel it has reached fair value around $190/share.

NOC results were quite strong, due to new programs contributing ( GBSD, space, classified) so this is just a friendly reminder (thanks to @lhamtil from Twitter) that NOC has beaten the QQQ over the last 10 years as well as 20 years (NOC has underperformed the QQQ since 2018 though).

Tracking positions in QLYS and in recent medtech IPO NPCE (speculative).

Also, how are folks that are closer to India than I am judging Modi? He seems to be incompetent at best and perhaps even malevolent. In addition to the stretched valuation metrics (see above), this looks like a lousy setup for a stock market - high valuations, declining profitability and lousy leadership ( which really matters in Emerging or 2nd world countries). India always has been the country that could but never actually got the job done. Why would this time be different?

Transcript from tikr.com: https://app.tikr.com/stock/transcript?cid=255251&tid=2594156&ts=2266536&e=696911379&refCode=o94y6y#

Sold my RNR - disappointing business performance. Stock went up since I bought it, but I lost confidence.

@Castanza Holly Molly, what a project. We just do small stuff like painting, replacing faucets etc. but nothing like this. I agree on YouTube being an amazing resource. There is almost nothing that can done that can’t be found in YouTube.

The herd immunity apparently never really get's reached because immunity wanes and the emergence of new variants that partially render the natural immune system defense obsolete. That is probably why we are seeing a second wave in countries like Brazil and now India. I think we will see more and more the mRNA vaccines becoming the gold standard here because of high efficacy and the ability to ,more quickly fine tune them against variants. i fully expect to get a BionNtech booster shot tuned for protection against variants probably by winter 2021. Vulnerable countries beyond Brazil and India are China (low vaccination and mostly crappy vaccine), Japan (already in shutdown) and pretty much the rest of SE Asia (low vaccination). The US is probably close to peak vaccination rates and should be able to export vaccine pretty soon to help out.

It might be time to have an ounce of prevention and vaccinate the portfolio a bit just in case this has consequences beyond just India. it is not that we never have seen this before.

Central bank policy makes no sense to me. QE makes no sense (imo) but it does not prevent central banks from trying.

There is nothing wrong with changing your mind of course, but $150M isn’t exactly small change nor is buying an entire company usually an easy to reverse decision, so I think this episode reflects very badly on how much he knows about what he buys or owns.

I guess “cinches” have replaced the “spawners”.

Yeah, the updates continue, they will get it right eventually.

LOL:

Increasing/ eliminating the SALT cap while increasing the federal income tax rate to pay for it is a no brainer for the democrats, imo. NYC and other cities would be beneficiaries, Florida a relative loser. When housing cracks, we will see it in CA and perhaps FLA first. I do think it will take a couple of years to get there.

Einhorn was in easy mode with respect to shorting for a while, because he could short a stock in size, then present his thesis on a conference which would tank the stock due to all those ridealongs. this would allow him to cover his position almost for a guaranteed profit. This reputation is not there any more as he (and his coattail shortsellers even more so) have taken a bath on stocks like Green Mountain. Ever since then, he has been struggling and it hasn't helped that his longs weren't that great either. Just look at how GLRE has done. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/07/greenlights-david-einhorn-gets-roasted-on-keurig-green-mountain-deal.html

So the logic is - the opportunity exists because regulators do nothing, but that's going to change once I am short the stock. My own experience is that stocks don't care if I own or short them however.

The Rocky mountain states are all great in their own way and would be my favorites. I love CO, Northern AZ, OR and in Canada Lake Okonaga and I am sure WY and others are great in their own way. The beauty of those areas is unmatched. On the east coast, NC would be my favorite (Asheville area). NH is also underappreciated and I like where I live (MA , close to NH border). I don't know FLA well but it is probably my least favorite state of those I visited (Orlando area, Tampa). I am sure other areas are nice ,especially for boating, but the weather for 9 month is just too brutal, imo. I have lived in Germany, CA, NY (Long Island) and now MA for perspective. In terms of pricing, I think real estate in the US as whole is still undervalued. there may be pockets of exuberance in some areas, but for example in the East coast, houses in many areas still have to crack their 2007 peak values 13/14 years later. So it is hardly a bubble. If you want to see what a bubble looks like Canada, Australia and NZ are much better examples.

Sold FROG and KVSA (both for small gains).

Marmon was shopped around by Byron Trott from GS (back then) before it end up with Berkshire. Byron Trott is called WEB favorite banker. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byron_Trott

The news is good, because the expectations were for a flat budged and 1.8% growth is better than flat. The defense contractors don’t really need much growth to generate good returns for shareholders. When you look at historical data, the growth in the defense budget wasn’t all that great (less than GDP), yet through a combination of higher budget share, dividends and stock buybacks, double digit returns have been achieved for shareholders. From current levels I can see returns of about 10% for LHX, LMT and NOC going forward, which I think will be far higher than what can be expected from the SPY.

Thanks for posting. Just based on the numbers cited in this report, the Indian stock market looks like a very poor setup - PE of 23.4 (a 1.6 multiple to EM average) 12.3% ROE does not scream value on a macro level, especially considering the significant inflation. I think there are better deals out there in terms of EM’s. This does not mean that there are good individual Securities available but this is a macro report and on a macro report, I just don’t see India as attractive. One obvious question to ask is why is India ROE so poor (12.3%). 12.3% is a disaster if you have 5% inflation. Who cares how fast the GDP grows in this framework?

Potus defense proposal is out - calls for 1.8% increase. Seems bullish considering the low expectations: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/08/biden-pentagon-budget-480476

What I don’t like about sports teams is that there are basically zero owners earnings and the employees (players) can capture the majority of economic returns. They are basically a billionaires collectible. I guess gladiator teams (romans) and jostling teams (medieval) in the past served the same purpose , except the participants back then didn’t do too well.

Sold remainder of my SIMO