Spekulatius

Front running the Reddit/WSB crowd is the 2021 version of value investing.

https://www.freseniusmedicalcare.com/en/news/preliminary-announcement-2021targets/

Thanks for the explanation. obviously, my info was incorrect as far as stock clearing is concerned - yours makes a lot of sense.

They settle trades themselves. Others use a clearinghouse which reduces capital requirements. The explosion in trading, higher stock prices for certain securities and account influx has made the capital raise necessary, at least that’s my take, based on limited info.

This is what loosing a WSB looks like: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/31/melvin-capital-lost-more-than-50percent-after-betting-against-gamestop-wsj.html

Koyfin is messed up after the recent update. The site is harder to use and charts are often messed up. I do like access to international stocks, but some of the other changes are questionable. I think Roaring Kitty is better of with what he has got.

MA actually has done this and listed smoking as a comorbidity condition allowing to get the vaccine faster. https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-timeline-phase-overview#phase-2- I am guess that I am going to tell my doctor that I started smoking because I got too stressed out about COVID-19 and not getting the vaccine.

Yes, I watched some videos too. it is definitely different than the gunslinger, I expected. He had a lot of energy names in his portfolio and HHS. He is an interesting fellow. I subscribed to his channel and he had 146k subscriber and it’s up to 178k now (Ops make this 181k). This guy could easily raise a billion $, I am guessing.

L3Harris thesis in one sentence: 20% EBITDA business (Harris) + 13% EBITDA (L3) margin business = 20% EBITDA margin business (L3Harris) NOC had very strong revenue growth in the last quarter. LMT also looked good, but outlook disappointed a bit. All those will be buying back a lot of stock if they stay cheap.

For most companies that is true. It is not true for companies that need to access the capital market frequently, like most financials or even MLP that have financing needs to that access capital markets for debt and equity. Financials in particular need to roll over debt, over gibt credit etc literally every day and and their reputation is extremely important in the view of their stakeholders (counterparts, customers, depositions, creditor). A severely lower share price and undermine confidence na impact the business very quickly. That’s the reflexivity principle. For other companies (industrials, even tech) that is much less the case.

No $41t Sherlock. Would have never guessed stock prices would drop when people are not allowed to buy them. ::) These newly minted millionaires need to move to a real broker. IB lets you buy anything. Got an limit order for NOK below $4 in just in case things get really funny on the downside.

There is a bear market in Meme stocks today : GME, BB, AMC, NOK, PLTR are all down today.

Looks one like folks in my office were gambling too. I hear words like Gamestock, AMC, Blackberry around our break room area this AM. Even some boomers were apparently in.

To find what? Rocket ship emoji’s? Bloomberg terminals have a built in chat function, why is that?

If I remember correctly, Porsche’s CEO stated that “a Complete takeover is not our intention”. First of all, Porsche never took VW completely over (they just acquired control ) and “intention” is a bit rubbery and subject to change. Fact is that Porsche’s board voted in March 2008 on the matter and gave the go ahead to acquire a controlling stake and a couple of month later, they just did that. At least to me, it seems that the hedgies didn’t really didn’t pay attention to details and got caught with their pants down.

+1 He covered a lot of companies and provided solid analysis. PCYO, MSGS (E), AYR just to name a few. And of course all those SPAC’s. He also runs a big mouth sometimes (hence the ban), but you got to take the good with the bad.

What legal theories are you referencing? I am only familiar with Rule 10b-5, which is here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.10b-5 A 10b-5 violation requires a material misstatement or omission of fact. Speculative statements of opinion ("This stock is going to the moon" or "Buy GME, can't go tits up") don't count. And there are more hurdles than this in the law. Importantly, the Supreme Court held in Ernst & Ernst v. Hochfelder (https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/425/185/) that there must be intent to deceive. On top of that, you actually have to show that the misstatements or omissions caused someone to buy or sell the stock in question, AND that they lost money. Are regulators really going to trawl through millions of posts from 20-year-old kids looking for deliberate factual misstatements to trace to individual buy/sell decisions? I doubt it. I would've thought it would've been more around the intentional manipulation, but looking back at Porsche/VW, the courts ruled in favor of Porsche. They ruled in favor of Porsche because what Porsche did (buying options on VW to gain control) was allowed in Germany at that time. Hedge funds who were in that trade wrongly assumed that it wouldn’t be allowed (in fact it would not be allowed in the US and many other countries) but they didn’t really know the rules. i don’t think you found more than a handful souls in Germany who felt sorry for the hapless guys. Right now, there is a lot of odd trading going on where shorted crap stocks go up and perhaps higher quality stocks go down. It seems to me that long /short traders and institutions are wetting their pants because they are afraid they get blown up in an infinity short squeeze, so they unwind their positions. This means that likely interesting opportunity may represent themselves. For example, I suspect that some folks are long Dell and short VMW. This makes sense perhaps, but now VMW is going up and Dell looks a bit sickly. I am long VMW and it think interesting things could happen in the short run with the relatively small float in VMW. I bought VMW for fundamental reasons so no big deal either way. I might buy some Dell too, if things get silly.

Gregmal banned? Timeout maybe, but the board is poorer without him. He needs to come back!

What crime? What crime is the average Joe committing? How can a participant in an idea with no central or governing body be committing a crime? I see it the same way. someone posts GME , another one says it’s going to $1000, another one says “Hold the line “ , what the crime here? Who, what why? In the meantime Ackman goes on TV and says “hell is coming” and pockets $2B in genius trade short trade! Give me a break.

MMAC and VNT. Also angling for more BERY, but limit order missed.

I don’t agree. If short sellers drive down PEP, it doesn’t matter, the company is self financing. In fact, the company could compound value and buy back tons of shares cheaply and the pensioners would benefit from this in the long run , even if they did nothing. More likely though. At least some folks would buy the discounted shares and benefit even more. the simple fact is that PEP share price doesn’t really matter for its operations. As for GME, everyone who has been and is involved in this from either side is just a greedy SOB, so why should be care if they make a ton of money or blow up. Personally, I think it is great that the little guys can form a Piranha swarm and gang up on the big fish, it usually is the other way around.

1) Starter in BERY. I sold this in the 40’s early this year and now at $50 and change it looks cheaper and less risky than when I sold it - strange how to works sometimes. 2) Small add to LMT. It seems that guidance spooked the market. Seemed fine to me, but what do I know. I had sold down GD a little a few days ago, so this is basically a swap.

LOl Melvin capital now got a bailout. You can’t make this up. https://www.wsj.com/articles/citadel-point72-to-invest-2-75-billion-into-melvin-capital-management-11611604340 This is “Occupy Wall Street” done right. Every short seller now has a target on his back. The inability to short because it has become way to risky could have some interesting ramifications for the market. This might be short term bullish but medium and long term not so much, as some institutions may just quit altogether until this blows over.

Grantham writes: Maybe he means that he made up his losses in the book of business. Since performance-wise, his sale was not great. If you look at SP500 (I'm eyeballing SPY prices), if he sold at the top of 1997, he sold at ~$97. If he rebought at the very bottom of 2002, he rebought at best at $82. I'd guess that he did not sell at $97 and he did not buy back at $82. So in essence, let's say he really called the dot com bubble. He still avoided at best ~15% drawdown to the bottom... (There's some divvies missing and perhaps he reinvested in bonds that did better than 0% cash). Not a great result if you ask me. Sure, maybe selling now is not like selling in 1997. Maybe it is like selling in late 1999. Maybe. But there's a lot of folks here who have been telling to sell since 2011 or 2014 or 2016 or 2018. Will the real top of the bubble please stand up? Yeah, maybe FAANMGs (which are a large chunk of the market) are ~20-30% overvalued (I'd argue that some of them are close to fairly valued). Yeah, if there's a crash they could overshoot down more than 20-30%. Yeah, good luck timing all that. I think you ingore the alternatives here though. He didn't sell and go to cash right? He sold and went to t-bills. So it's not that he avoided -15%, it's that he made a few % each year over the 5-year time frame his benchmark was -15%. That's a pretty big deal and the type of outperformance people pay hedge funds 2 and 20 to achieve. But what are the alternatives now? Long duration T-bills in my opinion have the potential for large losses too, just as stocks do. Gold? Cash or short term bonds yield nothing basically.