Hoodlum

Here is an initial estimate for Acapulco Hurricane damage. Not sure what the insured costs would be. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2023/10/26/745851.htm

I hope that the residents had enough time to find cover. https://www.artemis.bm/news/high-probability-mexico-cat-bond-loss-will-be-50-62-5m-from-otis-plenum/

The closest comparable would be Hurricane Pauline hitting Acapulco as a Category 4 Hurricane in 1997. That hurricane caused $9.7B in damage although I don't know how much of that is covered by insurance. My highly pie in the sky guestimate is that this could be $20B+ for the Category 5 hurricane now. But total insured amount will likely be much less than that. I don't think this will be a big insurance event although it will help contribute to an ongoing hard market. I believe this is the latest in the year that we have seen a category 5 hurricane hit North America.

Brett is slowly coming around. https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/fairfax-financial-raising-our-valuation-cad-970

UBS says Hurricane Idalia could cost insurers $9.36 bln. I don’t know what Fairfax’s exposure to the Florida market would be. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hurricane-idalia-could-cost-insurers-936-bln-ubs-2023-08-30/

But haven't the Atlantic Hurricanes had the most impact on the insurance business.

It looks like Hurricane season will be closer to normal this year, less active than the last few years. This El Nino effect will likely continue for the next 2-3 years. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

I am thinking that most of the sellers have dried up over the past couple months. So volume is not needed to drive up the price which is still well book book. The possibility of a BIAL IPO could be driving some speculation of an increase in book this year. I just wish I had bought more when it dipped below $10.

It looks like the IPO was approved on Friday. https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/corporate/story/irdai-gives-final-approval-to-go-digit-general-insurance-for-listing-354245-2022-11-25 Also, another positive development for the Insurance sector. https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/insurance-reforms-may-see-pe-funding-surge-in-sector/amp/ar-AA14CNJX

Walmart is one of the worst stores setup for handling the virus. Here is Canada they have the entrance and exit backwards so that you have to cross people going in the opposite direction between the 1st and 2nd set of doors. After 4 months they still haven't figure this out. Not to mentioned they are the only large retailer in Canada that doesn't offer tap for payments and no one is cleaning off the machine between customers purchases.

Canadian Prime Minister mentioned today that it would be months before they consider relaxing protective measures. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-return-to-work-will-be-graduated-and-likely-months-off-trudeau-says/ He cautioned that it would be a “few months, probably” before Canada is in a position to consider relaxing protective measures in place that have most Canadians staying at home and many businesses shuttered or working at partial capacity.

Yeah, I'm more bearish on the USA, because--regardless of what no_free_lunch seems to be saying--the Canadian response has been far superior to that of the USA. BC, Ontario, and Quebec have put in preventative measures that will cause the infection numbers to fall, peaking probably next week or sooner. Trudeau's economic response has been mediocre (he shouldn't have tried to shove payments to individuals through the EI system), but I think over the next few weeks, the virus numbers will be driving things, and Canada has done way better than the USA on the virus. The economy's going to suck for everyone. (Of course, all this is speculative--I'm betting on the SPY, but I'd also bet that the divergence between the S&P 500 and the TSX won't be huge....) I agree that it's a terrible time to be converting CAD to USD. It's also worth noting that I see light at the end of the tunnel. So I'm only very short-term bearish based on future infection numbers, but medium- and long-term bullish. I don't know what is happening in the US. In Canada we are testing over 20,000 per day yet it looks like the US is testing 40,000 per day?

That's all fine and dandy. But we don't exactly have an oversupply of tests....so wouldn't it be best to put them to the most efficient use? High risk individuals. It all starts from the top. Trump has decided he doesn't need to be tested or go into self-quarantine after being in contact with someone who now has the virus. I believe actions speak louder than words and Trump is not considering this as a serious threat. So you will see large segments of the US that won't take it seriously since the government is providing the leadership. This is not going to end well in the US.

The below is a better indication of where are based on closed cases. There is currently a 6% death rate for closed cases wordwide with 10% of open cases in serious/critical condition. It does not look good after extrapolating this out. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Downwards if I had to bet. LOL! You are a fierce betting-man LC :) It does start to feel like a real deep shit swamp and maybe it's time to start to consider buying. Why? We are only at a 12 month low. I don't think we are close to the bottom.

But shouldn't their bond gains be offsetting this?

The scary thing is that a 20-30% drop just brings us back to Jan 2016 in Toronto. We would need a 50% drop just to get back to 2012 levels.

Non-paywalled version http://www.pressreader.com/canada/the-globe-and-mail-ottawaquebec-edition/20161223/281754153977995

Unbelievable. I have no idea when this will end. B.C. offers interest-free loans up to $37,500 to first-time homebuyers The B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership program will provide a maximum of $37,500 — or up to 5 per cent of the purchase price — with a 25-year loan that is interest-free and payment-free for the first five years.

More likely getting they are getting grouped in with the rest of the insurance industry who are getting killed on their long bonds.

Here is the full quote. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-04/prem-watsa-s-fairfax-sells-90-of-long-bonds-ahead-of-election “We’ve sold 90 percent-plus of our Treasury bonds and we’ve made the point that the uncertainties in the U.S. election are the reason," Watsa, chief executive officer of the Toronto-based company, said on the third quarter conference call Friday. “We don’t know who’s going to win the elections, but you could have significant infrastructure spending, a drop in corporate tax rates, and while we think it might work in the short-term, in the long-term we have questions about that. We wanted to take that risk out."

I suspect we are only scratching the surface with these issues. According to an article from yesterday students would only need 35% down in order to apply for a mortgage with no income. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/incomeless-students-spent-57-million-on-vancouver-homes-in-past-two-years/article31892652/ "Nine students with no apparent source of income bought $57-million worth of single-family homes in Vancouver’s tony Point Grey neighbourhood over the past two years"

Well they sort of have that with the TFSA but only if you don't have larger gains. Otherwise the tax department will take you to court. ::)

It's no longer a question of if but when. A few years back I was saying the government needed to intervene before it gets to this stag but it is too late now.

My very basic calculation puts FFH share at $75M US. Unfortunately not enough to move the needle.