Hoodlum

Thanks for checking. I also need to realize that the lower prices didn't occur until after 1/20, so there were only 7-8 days where they may have bought in January.

That is actually disappointing consider the share price over the past 3 weeks and the average daily volume. Fairfax bought back only ~3% of the shares traded during this period. I wonder if this was related to the instructions they provided to their broker prior to the backout period.

it is hard to know what to believe from these India “source” as they have been more wrong than correct. They just seem to be guesses at this point. The only thing we know for certain is that Kotak Mahindra Bank did not submit a bid. On Friday all the Indian news site were saying that Fairfax and Kotak Mahindra were the only ones submitting bids.

Yes, a lot has happened over the past year, some of which we may have already been forgotten about. Here are a few that come to my mind. 1. What percentage of The Keg was sold to LFG and for how much. 2. How did Sleep County perform during its first full year under Fairfax. 3. Vacatia had its first full year under Fairfax. The initial update after Q1 seemed very positive and I would like to hear more about this business and where they see it going. 4. Seaspan did a large number of new ship build orders this year so I am looking forward to another update on the growing business. 5. What are their plans with the Under Armour share acquisition. Is this a passive investment but longer term? 6. What has happened with the Kennedy Wilson take Private acquisition. This one seems to have gone quiet. Not a company investment question but I am curious to see if there were any changes to the bond portfolio, specifically did they sell their remaining 30 year Treasuries. There will be many other questions as well. It will be interesting to review the annual report and shareholders letter, along with what is said on the conference call.

thanks. I understand now.

thanks @Viking for this detailed breakdown of AGT. Could you explain where you got the $283.6M in equity from. You had mentioned that is Canadian Dollars and the go private transaction in 2018 was for $436M Canadian.

Fairfax now owns 100% of their Ukraine Insurance subs. https://www.xprimm.com/UKRAINE-Fairfax-becomes-100-owner-of-ARX-ARX-Life-and-UNIVERSALNA-articol-34-22715.htm UKRAINE: Fairfax becomes 100% owner of ARX, ARX Life and UNIVERSALNA 4 February 2025 Canadian group Fairfax Financial Holdings completed a shareholder agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and became 100% owner of three Ukrainian insurance companies - ARX, ARX Life and UNIVERSALNA, Forinsurer reports. On January 22, 2025, Fairfax Financial Holdings, which owned 70% of LLC FFH Ukraine, that controlled three Ukrainian insurance companies - two non-life companies and one life insurance company, acquired 30% of the EBRD's stake. The EBRD transferred its 30% stake to FFHL Group (100% owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings), thus FFHL Group’s stake in FFH Ukraine increased from 70% to 100%. As a result of these changes, Fairfax became the sole owner of the insurance companies - UNIVERSALNA, ARX and ARX Life. In 2024, the share of Fairfax group companies - UNIVERSALNA, Colonnade and ARX - on the Ukrainian non-life insurance market, according to Forinsurer, was 14%.

If Fairfax India shares jump on Monday then Fairfax may need to at least issue a press release stating if they have submitted a bid. I don’t believe we will hear anything from Emirates NBD and the India government is not saying anything. https://www.ndtvprofit.com/economy/ndtv-profit-conclave-dipam-secy-on-idbi-stake-sale-reached-final-stage-undertaking-valuation-approval-10964882/amp/1 "We are careful about the privacy of strategic investors and the integrity of the transactions, the tweet we put out is worded very carefully, we do not give either the number or identity of bidders or any information that will help you figure it out," he said.

Fairfax may have been the only company to submit a bid for IDBA Bank https://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/kotak-mahindra-bank-says-it-has-not-submitted-financial-bid-for-idbi-bank/amp_articleshow/128024785.cms Kotak Mahindra Bank on Saturday said it has not submitted a financial bid as part of the ongoing disinvestment process for IDBI Bank Ltd. “We observed material price movement in the Bank’s scrip on February 6, 2026, and therefore would like to clarify that the Bank has not submitted a financial bid as part of the disinvestment process relating to IDBI Bank Limited,” the lender said in an exchange filing. According to an ET report dated February 6, Prema Watsa’s Fairfax Financial and Kotak Mahindra Bank were said to have submitted financial bids for a majority stake in IDBI Bank. ET has also learnt that Emirates NBD did not submit any bid. All three entities had earlier submitted expressions of interest (EoIs).

It is interesting when we find some details regarding some of Fairfax's International Insurance companies. While small, AM Best provide some details regarding Southbridge in Chile and gives an idea of the growth potential of Fairfax's international subs. https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspx?refnum=37004&altsrc=2 AM Best has assigned a Financial Strength Rating of A (Excellent) and a Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of “a” (Excellent) to Southbridge Compañía de Seguros Generales S.A. (Southbridge) (Santiago, Chile). The outlook assigned to these Credit Ratings (ratings) is stable. Southbridge ranks sixth within the P/C segment in Chile, holding 5.9% of the market, based on gross written premiums. The company has improved its position during the past 10 years, moving up from 10th place in 2016. Southbridge’s operating performance is characterized by its profitability. The company consistently achieves premium sufficiency through strong risk selection and positive investment results. Southbridge has been able to improve its bottom-line results steadily since 2020, from USD 6.7 million to USD 25.1 million by year-end 2025, driven by prudent underwriting and a consistent focus on profitability. AM Best expects this positive trend to continue, as Southbridge implements its strategy and expands operations.

While difficult to determine, I think that Fairfax has close to a $100M gain on UAA YTD ($5/share).

Metlen was down 16% today after issuing earnings warning. Under Armour jumped 12% this morning after better than expected earnings results.

The prospectus mentioned that Fairfax would own between 51-53% of AGT after the IPO. 29M shares Immediately following Closing, assuming a Treasury Offering size of $425,000,000, certain affiliates of Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (collectively, “Fairfax”) will, directly or indirectly, have an approximate interest between 51.2% and 53.2% in the Company through ownership of, or control or direction over, 29,050,368 common shares of the Company Upon completion of the Offering, AGT’s authorized share capital will consist of an unlimited number of Common Shares and an unlimited number of preferred shares, issuable in series, of which an aggregate of between 54,619,229 and 56,798,716 Common Shares (between 54,732,132 and 57,265,465 Offered Shares assuming the Over-Allotment Option is exercised in full) The below is based on a midpoint IPO of $28/share. Murad-Al Katib also holds 1,332,035 PSUs, which may settle into Common Shares at his election at any time after Closing. AGT Foods Prospectus https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=4637fac564261b84ab61c4713f6f4c4df821dcfc0d38162f90a331af7f4c4d2a Based on the below comment, it looks like they expect IPO to occur very soon. Our audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025 are not expected to be available until after this Offering is completed, and consequently are not expected to be available to you prior to investing in the Common Shares.

So based on what we know/assume, we would be looking at market cap of $1.7-$2.1B, which is near the high end of where I thought it might fall. But I am not sure if there are additional shares being issued and if so how many. I believe most shares available for distribution as part of the IPO, are coming from the current minor shareholders that are selling. Any new shares would dilute Fairfax’s 80% ownership at the time of the IPO. Also would this IPO require Fairfax to remark the valuation of AGT and if so would that hit both the earnings and book value?

That is a good question. I would think a share count would be mentioned somewhere in the IPO document.

thanks for sharing @SafetyinNumbers So does this mean they are anticipating an IPO of between $26-$30/share? I believe they took it private in 2018 for $18/share. If this is accurate then the valuation is not that high, considering the growth in sales and earnings during that period. Maybe I have missed something.

Fairfax now owns 26.6% of JKH. https://economynext.com/fairfax-ups-stake-in-sri-lankas-john-keells-holdings-259765/ Canada-based Fairfax financial group has increased its stake in Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings, with another foreign investor selling out, market sources said. Fairfax, through HWIC Asia Fund, already had a 25.5 percent stake in JKH and is the largest shareholder. Norges Fund 2, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, had a 1.1 percent stake in JKH (188 million shares), has sold shares, market sources said.

I don’t believe they will change their position based on year end results as that should already be known for the most part. They will react once the share price increases as it will not look good if their target is below what Fairfax is trading at. BMO obviously doesn’t understand where Fairfax earnings will come from during this soft market, so they will be a constant laggard with their targets.

These are 3 other analyst updates over the past week, after the BMO downgrade. The BMO analyst must have a lot of investor sway. Scotiabank raised its price target to $3,150 from $3,050, reflecting confidence in earnings durability. RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $2,200.00US (3,000 cdn) price target (unchanged). National bank with an “outperform” rating and $3,200 target (unchanged). "Fairfax: Our top idea in P&C. Least affected by softer insurance cycle, huge excess cash and capital position will allow for buybacks and minority interest purchases that drive ROE higher, value continues to be underappreciated.

Here is a quick take from TD

It looks like the Canadian government has already approved the Foran Mining deal with Eldorado. Assuming they already have approval from the known larger shareholders with 52% of outstanding shares, then they just need 15% more to pass the 2/3 votes needed. It will be interesting to see if someone else decides to put in an offer. https://www.miningforum.live/p/perfect-match-eldorado-to-acquire Burns said the deal, which had been in the works for the past 6-7 months, shouldn’t surprise anyone, describing the combination as a “perfect match”. Foran executive chair and CEO Dan Myerson said there had been no formal sale process for the company and rather, it was a case of shared values between the two companies. Eldorado and Foran said the deal had the backing of the Canadian government. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said the proposed transaction reinforced Saskatchewan’s position as a leading destination for responsible resource development. Directors and senior officers of Foran owning a collective 4% of the company have entered into a voting and support agreement with Eldorado. Foran’s major shareholders include Fairfax Financial Holdings with 22%, Agnico Eagle Mines (TSX: AEM) with 13.5%, Canada Growth Fund with 10% and Pierre Lassonde with 3%. Eldorado will have the right to match any superior proposal for Foran.

what you provided doesn’t show the percentage of shares for the equity holders not selling, after the IPO. You would think that Fairfax would show 80% under all 3 columns if new shares were not being issued. So it is not quite clear if there will be new shares issued under either scenario.

AGT went private in 2018 for $416M with EDITDA of $72M, so they are a much larger and diversified company now, having been able to traverse the tariffs over the past year. They will have no debt at time of IPO and could provide a dividend along with growth prospect. It will be interesting to see how they price AGT.

That would work as long as Gold doesn't drop significantly future before this transactions closes.