Hoodlum

I believe it will occur on April 16th. We will receive a press release from Fairfax with the actual date, about 10 days prior to the call.

it looks like you didn’t transition to the 2026 thread. There are also other Fairfax threads in the Fairfax sub-forum. You have a lot of reading to catch up on.

The comments regarding the benefits of the Kennedy Wilson acquisition seems to suggest growing the real estate underwriting business at Fairfax. Wade Burton Kennedy Wilson has world-class capabilities underwriting real estate. Having this capability in-house at Fairfax has a huge long-term benefit for Fairfax shareholders. Peter Clarke On Kennedy-Wilson, we're just -- we have a 12-year or 16-year I guess, relationship with Kennedy-Wilson. They've effectively managed our real estate and mortgage business over that time period and has provided us with outstanding returns. And we don't have that capability, at least that size and scale in-house. So we're very excited of what they bring to the table and looking very forward to working with them going forward.

Maybe more was said live.

Wow! Asbestos claims from 30-40 years ago are still a big contributor to ongoing runoffs.

Did I hear correctly that the EuroLife sale is now expected to close in Q2?

I noticed that Fairfax had a negative reserve development from runoff of $300M with most of this occurring in Q4. That offset the positive Q4 reserve development of $258M for insurance. Looking at the prior 3 years this seems to be variable but not out of the norm with 2 of the prior 3 year having a run-off of >$200M. Is this something that we can generally expect to grow with the insurance business? Life insurance and Run-off operations reported an operating loss of $213.7 million compared to an operating loss of $92.1 million in 2024, principally reflecting higher net adverse prior year reserve development at Run-off of $298.5 million in 2025 (2024 – $221.1 million) on an undiscounted basis, primarily related to latent hazard claims.

It looks like the final gain on the Eurobank closing in Q1 may be greater than initially anticipated. Pursuant to the company’s previously announced proposed sale of its Eurolife Life Operations to Eurobank, at December 31, 2025 the company had classified assets of $3.4 billion and liabilities of $3.6 billion related to the Eurolife Life Operations as held for sale in its consolidated balance sheet. The current estimated pre-tax gain on closing is approximately $350 million, which will be affected prior to closing by market value changes in the investment portfolio of the Eurolife Life Operations and by the company's expected purchase of certain investments in that portfolio.

I have not seen anything for past 2 quarters from Poseidon/Seaspan Corp.

I am thinking ~$65/share in diluted earnings for Q4, but this could vary depending on the Q4 Reserve Release. I am probably more interested in reading this year's annual report as there will be more to review that usual with all of the business activity from the past year.

I noticed this is a press release from AGT Foods regarding the timing of the IPO. https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/records/document.html?id=6fe7036abb95a9434a55476d736131fe970f5e83549032d6baee97282f4ff54b Pricing: Expected the week of February 23rd, 2026. Closing: Expected the week of March 2nd, 2026

The CEO owns 8% of the outstanding share and other board members own shares as well. It looks like Fairfax will own >75% of outstanding share once this closes so they will have control. But like all of their private businesses Fairfax doesn't run the day to day. Keep in mind that the insurance companies will actually hold these KW shares, so this investment does not hinder Fairfax buybacks that are done at the holding company level. As far as the business itself I would think that Fairfax is well of aware of what they are involved with, having been doing business with KW for the past 15 years. I am sure the Fairfax Bond team was also involved in discussions for this acquisition, as they have been an integral part of doing business with KW in the past and will continue to be going forward.

So they increased the initial offer of $10.25 to $10.90.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/13/3238353/0/en/Fairfax-Announces-Conference-Call.html TORONTO, Feb. 13, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, February 20, 2026 to discuss its 2025 year-end results, which will be announced after the close of markets on Thursday, February 19, 2026 and will be available at that time on its website at www.fairfax.ca. The call, consisting of a presentation by the company followed by a question period, may be accessed at 1 (800) 369-2143 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (312) 470-0063 (International) with the passcode “FAIRFAX”. A replay of the call will be available from shortly after the termination of the call until 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, March 20, 2026. The replay may be accessed at (866) 360-3309 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (203) 369-0164 (International).

This was from Fitch at end of January regarding US P&C market in 2026. It is a gradual 2-3 point increase in CR for 2026. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/fitch-ratings-us-pc-market-to-soften-further-in-2026-as-competition-intensifies/ Fitch projects that the US commercial lines sector will post an aggregate combined ratio of around 94% for 2025. Underwriting profitability is expected to narrow modestly in 2026, with combined ratios drifting to 96%–97%, assuming catastrophe activity returns to more typical levels. In personal lines, Fitch Ratings expects homeowners’ insurance results to remain supported by prior rate increases and tighter policy terms, which have improved combined ratios. For private passenger auto, the pace of rate increases is forecast to slow further but remain positive into 2026.

The press release that goes out one week in advance of an earnings release, is always done on Friday after hours. Usually well after 5pm EST.

OpenAI has approved a Spanish insurer for Home Insurance quotes through ChatGPT. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/openai-approves-first-insurer-built-ai-app-on-chatgpt/

Goldman Sachs increase their target for Eurobank to 5 Euro and had some interesting comments on Eurobank and the Greek banks in general. https://m.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/goldman-sachs-upgrades-eurobank-to-buy-downgrades-nbg-in-greek-bank-shakeup-4502222?ampMode=1 "The Greek banks have entered an era of higher structural profitability and strategic flexibility supported by strong capital levels, increasingly resilient business models, and a very favourable macroeconomic backdrop," analysts said. The Eurobank upgrade reflects its "advantageous business mix" with strong presence across Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria, delivering sustainable mid-teens return on tangible equity (ROTE), according to the report. As of the nine months ended September 2025, Greece accounted for 47% of Eurobank’s adjusted net profit, while Cyprus contributed 35% and Bulgaria 16%. Goldman Sachs expects Greek banks to deliver return on tangible equity averaging circa 14% to 15% over 2026-2028, with CET1 ratios exceeding 15%. The banks rank among Europe’s most efficient operators, with cost-to-income ratios in the mid-30% range versus roughly 50% for Goldman Sachs’ broader European banks coverage. Loan growth remains a key driver, with Greek banks expected to grow their loan books at roughly double the European average. The report forecasts loan growth of 6% to 8% annually through 2028, supported by corporate lending demand and gradual improvement in household borrowing.

Pierre has been on the board as a special advisor since 2022. https://cvwsustainableroyalties.com/about-us/ Mr. Lassonde joined CVW CleanTech as a special advisor in October, 2022 and is a highly respected Canadian professional engineer, entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. He founded Franco-Nevada Corp. in 1982, introducing the royalty financing model to the mining sector which led to the creation of one of the world’s largest royalty businesses today. https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/cvw-cleantech-announces-maiden-royalty-investment-into-northstar-clean-technologies-and-15-million-brokered-private-placement-874387262.html Directors and Special Advisor to the Company Pierre Lassonde are supportive of the Transaction. The Offering is anchored by Mr. Lassonde who intends to personally invest $1,000,000 bringing his ownership in the Company to approximately 8% of the Company.

I initially thought it would be this week as well. It looks like we were not the only ones confused, as the Globe also had Fairfax results this Thursday when they posted this last Friday. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-calendar-what-investors-need-to-know-for-the-week-ahead-126/ Thursday February 12 (8:30 a.m. ET) U.S. initial jobless claims for week of Feb. 7. Estimate is 220,000, down 11,000 from the previous week. (8:45 a.m. ET) Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers joins fireside chat in Toronto. (10 a.m. ET) U.S. existing home sales for January. Consensus is an annualized rate decline of 3.2 per cent. Earnings include: Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Airbnb Inc., Air Canada, Applied Materials Inc., Bombardier Inc., CAE Inc., Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, Canadian Tire Corp. Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Definity Financial Corp., Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., Fortis Inc., H&R REIT, IGM Financial Inc., Keyera Corp., Mullen Group Ltd., New Gold Inc., Restaurant Brands International Inc.

No, they will not close out the TRS. I just believe the share price will increase between now and end of Q1, reducing the current YTD marked to market loss that Viking presented.

I believe the share price will rise gradually after the year end results, reducing the current TRS loss that Viking included in his YTD earnings report.

I do see the TRS loss getting reduced by the end of Q1. I don’t know the particulars of the TRS transaction.

I would have thought that going public and issuing new shares would have required that, but I may be mistaken.

We may even see a gain from the AGT IPO in Q1, as the prospectus mentioned that the IPO would happen before their audited year end results become available.