Hoodlum

Thanks. I had missed this earlier. Is there a way to add the FFH TRS shares

During the AGM conference call, Prem mentioned that as the share price increases they will take some off to reduce exposure. This is likely what occurred in Q4 2024. I like their comment regarding treating it like any other investment. That should give us an idea of when they might close it off. As valuation of the stock price gets to a higher p/b, then we would see more close off as well. In the interim they will continue to hold. "We'll continue to hold our TRS. As it goes up, we'll take some off for exposure purposes, but we treat it like one of our other investments."

Eurobank debt rating outlook was downgraded to negative by Moody's due to creditor Hierarchy changes by the EU. https://www.tovima.com/finance/moodys-adjusts-greek-bank-outlooks/ The move follows the approval in March 2026 of the Crisis Management and Deposit Insurance (CMDI) legislative package by European lawmakers. The reform significantly reshapes creditor hierarchy in cases of bank resolution or insolvency, placing depositors ahead of holders of senior unsecured debt—thereby strengthening depositor protection across the bloc. • Long-term deposit ratings: Piraeus Bank was upgraded by one notch with a stable outlook. Eurobank, National Bank of Greece, and Alpha Bank were affirmed with stable outlooks, while Optima Bank’s outlook was revised to positive from stable. • Issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings (where applicable): Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank, and Optima Bank were affirmed with stable outlooks. Eurobank and National Bank of Greece were also affirmed, but their outlooks were revised to negative from stable. Its updated analysis assumes a unified EU-wide creditor hierarchy, boosting deposit protection but pressuring senior debt and issuer outlooks due to thinner buffers. Negative outlooks highlight uncertainty over banks’ ability to rebuild these buffers.

Fairfax may have their own internal celebration once they are completely exited from BlackBerry. Prem would certainly highlight it on a conference call.

It will be interesting to see how many BB shares were sold by Fairfax. Volume has been very high the past few days with 65M shares traded yesterday.

Fairfax will be increasing its stake in IIFL Capital. https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/fairfax-in-talks-to-increase-stake-in-iifl-capital-via-preferential-allotment-sources-say-11387498 Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd., a Canadian diversified financial holding company, is in discussions to acquire an additional stake in IIFL Capital Services Ltd. through a preferential allotment of equity shares, sources familiar with the matter told NDTV Profit on Tuesday. The proposed transaction could position Fairfax as a co‑promoter and majority shareholder in the Mumbai-based wealth management company. According to the sources, Fairfax is looking to purchase close to a 10% stake via the preferential issue, which could cost around Rs 1,000 crore. Such a transaction would trigger an open offer under the applicable takeover regulations. As of March, promoters own around 30.9% stake in the company and Fairfax via FIH Mauritius Investments holds 27.2%. The total market capitalisation of IIFL Capital is Rs 10,200 crore. The deal is said to be in its final stages and could be concluded within the next few weeks, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The funds raised through the proposed allotment are expected to be used as growth capital for IIFL Capital's wealth management and asset management businesses.

If existing plant had the capacity we would already see them filling the gap, as it has been almost 2 months now. The Middle East was a large producer for many of the areas. For example, 30% of fertilizer globally went through the Strait of Hormuz. 25% of Global Polypropylene also goes through this Strait. There is the short term impact of not shipping product, but then comes the longer term impact due to damaged facilities that need to be repaired. This is an interesting article on Helium that will also be significantly impacted due to damage to LNG facility, that are setup to product Helium in Qatar. Again, facilities would need to be built elsewhere to replace this production. The projected Helium shortage is already at the critical stage as it will take years to get back the production from Qatar, and this is a vital input for critical industries. https://www.asiapacific.ca/publication/iran-conflict-sparks-helium-shock-threatens-global-chip In Brief The conflict in the Middle East has fractured the global helium supply chain, taking a significant share of production offline for an element with no viable substitute. A critical input for semiconductor fabrication, fibre-optic manufacturing, and the aerospace industry, helium is classified as a "critical mineral" by Canada, Japan, the European Union, and others. Accounting for roughly a third of global helium production, Qatar’s output was severely disrupted after Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed LNG facilities forced state-owned QatarEnergy to halt operations in March. Since helium is typically extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing, the halt has also suspended helium production. Qatar has said repairs to its LNG capacity could take up to five years. Canada holds one of the world's largest helium endowments, but its longstanding reliance on the U.S. for final processing — the step that transforms raw helium into a high-value, exportable product — has left Canadian industries vulnerable to supply disruptions. What’s Next 1. Canada could step up as an alternative supplier Unlike most producers, where helium is a byproduct of natural gas drilling, Canada’s geology allows for direct helium extraction. This enables lower emissions and reduces exposure to energy market volatility. With geopolitical risk present across all major suppliers, global stakeholders are looking to Canada as a natural long-term alternative. Saskatchewan is already moving ahead with plans for Canada's first liquefaction hub, aiming for a 10 per cent global market share by 2030. Realizing that goal will require significant investment in the infrastructure needed to bring Canadian helium to markets. 2. Other critical resource shortages warrant attention Beyond helium, several industrial staples are under strain. Sulphur, a byproduct of oil and gas refining, is a key feedstock for sulphuric acid, which is essential for processing critical minerals. The Middle East accounts for roughly 24 per cent of global sulphur production and around 50 per cent of global seaborne sulphur trade, nearly all of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing's planned halt on sulphuric acid exports from May threatens to tighten supply further, adding pressure on the mineral industries and the supply chains built on them.

BB also announced today an expanded partnership with Nvidia.

I am not concerned about them getting money, but they will need to give something up in return. The US oil producer will likely wait a few more months with $80 before they commit. In general I am not too concerned about oil as that can ramp up quickly once a decision is made. My concern is the time it will take to repair the facilities for the downstream products produced from oil and gas in the Middle East. This takes much longer to either repair or build elsewhere. It is these areas where price increase with stick with us longer and increase core inflation.

Thanks @Hamburg Investor for sharing this as I had not thought of the buybacks like this. So basically we could have a longer runway that Berkshire with greater price/share gains, before our larger size reduces future growth. This is of course dependent on continued future opportunities for share buybacks.

We will first see this from imported foods from Asia as they are being impacted now from the Fertilizer price increase. Asia will need to choose between passing through higher fertilizer costs or using less fertilizer for lower yield. The end result of higher food cost is the same. In NA we will only see this based on the amount of damage to fertilizer facilities as we generally won't need it until we start buying fertilizer later this year for next spring.

As someone who works in the IT distribution industry, I can tell you that large price increase due to the memory and other chip price increases have been driving revenue increases in this industry. I would be careful about reading too much into this. Some good examples from last week are Samsung increasing existing phone prices by 10-15% and Microsoft increasing prices of all their Surface laptop by average of 25%. The bigger concern is the coming part shortage that is starting to seep in to certain product lines as companies focus on the higher margin products. Sony has stopped manufacturing Solid State cards due to memory shortage. Micron has totally existed from their consumer SSD business. Even Apple who are generally the masters of supply chain are showing long lead times of many months for some of their devices as they priority where to sell. Some larger memory configs for Apple Systems have been completed removed as an option from the Apple Site. It will be interesting to see how this evolves in the coming months.

That is more of a long term solution. Adding refining/production plants does not solve a 1-2 year gap in production where plants have been damaged in the Middle East. It is not the oil price that will cause inflation as oil production can be quickly increased globally. The production facilities for the oil/gas byproducts cannot easily be replaced globally in the next year or two. That is where the inflation will occur. The war is not over yet and we may see a further escalation of damages to facilities in the Middle East. This is the ongoing increase to inflation risk.

You are only looking at it from an Oil production short term perspective. Many of the related production facilities that are located in the Middle East (Petroleum, Helium, Fertilizer) have been damages as well, and those cannot quickly be replaced elsewhere due to limited facility production capacity in other regions. The largest Aluminum production facility in the Middle East has also been damaged and it is expected to take a year to repair. In the interim, Rio Tinto in Canada has helped pick up that gap but shifting more aluminum to the US, albeit with a 50% tariff that will get passed to the consumer until the Middle East can get back online.

IEA Chief says it could take up to 2 years to restore Oil and Gas production in the Middle East back to close to where it was before the war. That is assuming there is no further damage to pipelines and facilities. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Chief-Says-Oil-Gas-Recovery-Could-Take-Two-Years-After-War-Damage.html It could take up to two years to restore a meaningful share of oil and gas production lost in the Iran war, according to International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol. That timeline matters because markets are still treating the disruption as temporary. It isn’t. Oil fields, refineries, and pipelines have sustained damage across the Persian Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has also been largely shut, cutting off a key export route for crude and fuels. Together, those disruptions have removed hundreds of millions of barrels from the market. In an interview with Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week, Birol pushed back on the idea that supply would return quickly once shipping resumes. Reopening the Strait does not bring production back to pre-war levels, according to Birol. Facilities would need to be repaired and output would need to be restarted. Both take time.

You can listen to it in the Quatr app. It also has the transcript from the meeting.

very nice

Try this link for the same article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-next-great-business-oracle-may-not-be-american-meet-the-next-warren-buffett/ar-AA210UK3 Interestingly, Watsa, Flatt, and Leonard have all been called “the Warren Buffett of Canada.” And Greg Abel, the new CEO of Berkshire, is Canadian, too. Something in the water up there, eh?

Nice choice!

So who got a Fairfax hat from Under Armour at the AGM.

Here is a non-paywalled link to the same article. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-s-next-great-business-oracle-may-not-be-american-meet-the-next-warren-buffett/ar-AA210UK3

Blackberry shares are also up 45% ($37M) this month, assuming Fairfax hasn’t sold any shares.

For those interested, Fairfax has posted their 2025 Charitable Giving Report. https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2025-Fairfax-Charitable-Giving-Report.pdf

I mentioned earlier in this thread regarding the the AI boom and the impact on memory and other component costs that will begin filtering down to businesses and consumers. Well, Samsung today quietly increase prices of all existing phones and tablet by 10-15% due to these increasing memory costs. Microsoft today did the same for their Surface laptops, increasing pricing by an average of 25% on all models! This is just the beginning and is likely spreading to network/security devices, servers, cars, etc. Basically anything with a cpu/memory will be impacted. This will then soon filter down to service costs (ie hosting), maintenance costs, insurance, etc. Inflation was already in the cards for this year. The oil price and all the other impacted related resources (Helium (Chip manufacturing), Fertilizer for Food, Petroleum for Plastics, etc) are just the cherry on top. https://www.phonearena.com/news/samsung-us-price-hikes-galaxy-z-flip-7-tab-s11-ultra-tab-s10-fe-more_id179647 https://www.windowscentral.com/hardware/surface/microsoft-reveals-major-price-increases-for-all-surface-pro-laptop-pcs-as-ram-crisis-continues

LOL. Talk about wasting tax dollars. I wonder what the costs were to administer the collection and then the refund of these tariffs. What a boondoggle.