Hoodlum

Over 50% in my registered account. Tough to calculate on my margin and TFSA account but would be much greater due to MSFT Calls earlier this year. I would estimate over 70%. Average of 30% over past 5 years.

A good news story for New Years Eve. http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/1308782--tim-hortons-customers-pay-it-forward-228-times-in-winnipeg

Our company has been using LTO tapes for years now and have no plan on getting rid of it. But LTO tape capacity and speed seem to be maxing out now so there will need to be a new technology advance soon. For consumers an external hard drive is a good method for backups.

Six months ago our company started using SSDs for all new laptop and desktop computers. Most company computers don't need large hard drives and the 128GB SSD is all that is needed in most cases. Our SAN is still using hard drives as we await for better industry standards on supporting SSDs in SANs. If the SSDs keep dropping in price like the past 2 years then the future is not bright for Seageate and WD. I'd say that within 24 months most laptops will come standard with an SSD instead of a hard drive as the benefits are even greater with a probable device. Our company is in the process of replacing the slow 5400rpm hard drives in most existing company laptops to SSDs, giving better battery life and an incredible performance boost. Two months ago I bought a new PC for home and went with just SSD. I am still using an external hard drive for backup and storage, but still fewer hard drives than I was using on my old system. Hard Drives are not going away but I believe demand will start shrinking over the next 2 years.

Interesting that they have 33% in cash as they feel equity is overpriced right now. This position is much different than their hedges which was to protect from volatility.

Up 26% YTD in my registered account. Margin account should be even greater due to Microsoft puts earlier this year.

I lightened my BAC exposure today as it was becoming a large portion of my portfolio and I am still concerned about short term macro issues (especially Europe). I have lots of cash waiting for the next opportunity.

This is the first in a 4 part series by Wynn Quon on Bubbles. The 2nd part is in the current issue of the Canadian MoneySaver magazine. http://www.legadoassociates.com/lessons1.htm "In those days you could buy stock with only 5% down. (After the Great Depression, they changed the rules. The only thing you can buy nowadays with 5% down is real estate and who’d be crazy enough to do that?)."

This reminds me of when people said businesses would switch to Linux to save money. Microsoft is even more entrenched now with businesses.

Very disappointed in the Macbook Pro retina, considering the market they are going after. Just don't expect to replace or upgrade components on your own as the memory is soldered to the board, battery is glued down (on top of trackpad wiring actually), retina display is fused, etc.. This may seen "normal" for Macbook Pros but not from the PC notebook side. Basically you are tied to Apple service for any repair or upgrade, hoping they don't mess with your hard drive. Great for Apple but not so great for the consumer. http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/06/13/teardown_of_retina_display_macbook_pro_finds_soldered_ram_propreitary_ssd.html

I bought more BAC today and it is my main holding. Cash is down to 75% now.

I went to 90% cash a couple of days ago. I also bought some CRM puts. The market will get nasty by the end of the year due to more Europe debt issues and I decided to lock in my gains and wait. Only have BAC for now.

Book dropped $10 to $354/share. It'll be interesting to see how the shares respond tomorrow.

Businesses will just continue using the Classic interface so Metro is a non-issue. The biggest enhancement for Windows 8 and the Server 8 is related to the integration of Hyper-V's virtual environment. On the server side our company has already reached some of the limits of Windows 2008 Hyper-V and we will have to move to Server 8 sometime next year. Hyper-V on the client side also has benefits for business.

Has anyone looked into the 'wet' gas argument for the price drop and supply increase. It doesn't look like this will improve any time soon. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/a-natural-gas-disconnect-bargain-bin-prices-surge-in-supplies/article2368417/ The most important factor is the chase for so-called “wet” gas, which has dominated industry activity for the last few years. It’s natural gas that surges to surface accompanied by liquid hydrocarbons like propane, butane and ethane. Those liquids radically shift the dynamics. In oil terms, natural gas currently trades for under $14 a barrel. Propane, meanwhile, sells for around $50 a barrel; butane is roughly $90. At prices like that, natural gas becomes nearly an afterthought. In some wells, companies could make money even giving away the gas, which in those wet wells is called “associated gas.” In others, it takes a very low gas price to make it work. David Hobbs, chief energy strategist at IHS Cera, has calculated that over the next decade, “we can see up to 14-odd BCF [billion cubic feet] a day of associated gas that would still be economic to produce at $1.” With the U.S. currently producing 72 BCF a day, that’s a large percentage.

I started raising cash by selling DELL and MERC that I thought were are fair value with FY reports coming soon. I don't know enough about AIG to make the jump yet, but I may consider increasing by CRM Put position if it keeps rising.

If Japan has to issue more debt to foreigners then there will be much more pressure to cut expediture/increase taxes. It would become very similar to what Europe needs to do except they don't have multiple countries that need to agree on a plan.

How much longer can they finance their debt internally? At some point external debt financing will be required and then it could turn nasty very quickly.

Here is another interesting case for buybacks. Gates’ Selling Seen Sparking $2 Bil MSFT Buying Spree By Index Funds Since the S&P 500 is a float-weighted index — it only uses shares freely trading in public hands — Gates’s holdings lower Microsoft’s place in the index. Once insiders control less than 10% of a company’s shares, S&P adjusts the S&P 500 to count every share. If that happens for Microsoft, index mutual funds and ETFs will need to buy additional Microsoft shares, says Rawson. S&P currently covers about 89% of MSFT’s 8.4 billion shares when calculating its index. “If all of a sudden we count all 8.4 billion when we do the adjustment next year it’s going to mean a 14% increase in its weighting,” Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst for S&P, told Jones. Index investors would have to acquire an additional 1% of all Microsoft shares to match its weighting in the index. Gates’s current rate of stock sales could reduce insider holdings below 10% early next year. S&P recalibrates its index annually in September.

It'll be interesting to see if this forces improved corporate governance in Japan. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/18/olympus-board-idUSL3E7LI2G120111018 The lack of independent directors supervising management is one of the key factors behind Japan's No. 36 ranking out of 39 countries on corporate governance in the latest survey by research firm GMI . Other propagators of poor governance include cross-shareholdings with business partners and a tendency for executives to hang on wielding influence in advisory posts even after they've retired from the board. The Olympus case may give the impression that governance is moving backwards, despite a series of steps aimed at improving the situation in recent years, including the Tokyo Stock Exchange's requirement from this year that all companies have at least one independent director or auditor. "This is a negative step for corporate governance in Japan," said Jamie Allen, secretary general of the Asian Corporate Governance Association based in Hong Kong. "There had been some hope that Japanese companies would take on not just outside directors but outside managers and that corporate cultures in Japan would be more open and international."

Olympus is really looking stupid. I am surprised for company with the history and size of Olympus. Olympus Backtracks on Gyrus Adviser Fee, Says Amount Double

Here is a copy of the letter from then President and CEO, Michael Woodford to Chairman, Tsuyoshi Kikukawa on Oct 11th. Woodford suggested meeting on the 14th to discuss next steps. That was the day he was sacked. http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/business/20111018/letter-text.pdf "In putting the company first, the honourable way forward would be for you and Mori-san to face the consequences of what has taken place, which is a shameful saga by any stretch of the imagination. It is clear that the current situation is now untenable and to move forward positively the necessary course of action is for you both to tender your resignations from the Board. This approach would allow the situation to be managed in a discreet manner and minimise the reputational damage to both Olympus and yourselves. If your resignations are not forthcoming, then there is a principal obligation upon me in respecting my fiduciary duties, to raise, with the appropriate parties, my fundamental concerns in relation to the governance of the company."

Has anyone been following the Olympus story over the past couple of days. Stock is down 40% since the President and CEO was asked to leave. He has sent Financial and Audit documents to UK's SFO for further investigation. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/87cbfc42-f612-11e0-bcc2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1bA6mlmiV In a statement announcing his dismissal, Olympus said Mr Woodford had diverged “from the rest of the management team” and this was ”causing problems for decision making”. The dismissal represented an abrupt reversal. When promoting Mr Woodford to chief executive two weeks ago, Tsuyoshi Kikukawa, chairman, said he was “extremely pleased” with the Briton’s leadership, which had “exceeded my expectations”. Mr Woodford stressed that he had seen no evidence that Olympus executives benefited improperly from the acquisitions. But he said large amounts of money seemed to have “disappeared” into the hands of poorly vetted outside financial advisers and investment vehicles. In a letter to Mr Kikukawa dated October 11, he described “a catalogue of calamitous errors and exceptionally poor judgment which … has resulted in the destruction of shareholder value of $1.3bn.” In the Gyrus case, the documents show that Olympus paid $687m to a Cayman Islands-registered company, AXAM, that had been named as a financial adviser but whose ultimate owners were never ascertained by Olympus. The company disappeared from the trade register three months after receiving its final payment from Olympus, Mr Woodford said. The amount paid represented about a third of the $2.2bn acquisition price. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-18/olympus-says-fees-paid-over-gyrus-purchase-were-appropriate-.html Olympus Corp. (7733) said acquisition fees paid to unidentified advisers amounting to 30 billion yen ($391 million) were not excessive and followed “appropriate” accounting procedures. “Investors expected that management would deny everything but in fact the chairman started to admit things,” Yuuki Sakurai, president at Fukoku Capital Management Inc., said in a phone interview. “Only the numbers are different. They admitted the payment even though several years ago they didn’t disclose it. It makes you wonder if there’s more out there.”

Authorizing a 20% buyback seems like a better way of using cash than what HP is doing.

If this is a long term trend, I wonder how much impact this would have on housing demand.