Hoodlum

200k shares. I'll take the over.

We should soon see how much the buybacks were in May.

Fairfax has converted their Orla Mining Notes to shares. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/06/08/3308005/0/en/fairfax-announces-acquisition-of-additional-orla-mining-ltd-common-shares.html Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (“Fairfax”) (TSX: FFH and FFH.U) announces that it has acquired, through its insurance company subsidiaries, 26,582,275 common shares (the “Conversion Shares”) of Orla Mining Ltd. (“Orla”) resulting from the conversion of an aggregate amount of US$150,000,000 principal amount of senior unsecured convertible notes (the “Notes”) of Orla, which were converted into common shares of Orla (the “Common Shares”) upon the election of Fairfax at a conversion price per Common Share of CDN$7.90 pursuant to the terms of the Notes.

AGT announced NCIB. https://www.agtfoods.com/news/2026-06-03-NCIB

Nice pricing for these 30 year corporate bonds. It will be interesting to see how this is used. The Series K Preferred shares will not reset until March 2027, which is when Fairfax can close out this last series. So I see this for either the Allied minority interest or share buybacks, until the EuroLife sale closes. This gives them some buffer as the Eurolife sale is taking longer than initially expected, likely due to the slow pace of Greece's government approvals.

Even the credit rating agencies are catching up with what has been happening at Fairfax. https://news.ambest.com/pr/PressContent.aspx?refnum=37371&altsrc=2 Fairfax’s ratings reflect the group’s continued favorable earnings trend, which includes record underwriting profits in 2025, even with significant catastrophe activity impacting some of its affiliates in the year. Fairfax’s investments continue to accrue significant capital gains and earn steady and increasing interest and dividends, allowing it to repurchase its own shares while keeping its risk-adjusted capitalization at the strongest level. Fairfax’s returns have allowed the group to compound its book value per share at an 18.3% rate annually, on average, since 1985.

I would be surprised if Fairfax has not been selling BB as the stock price increased in Q2.

BIAL surpassed Mumbai Airport for domestic passenger traffic during April. This trend is expected to continue as new Mumbai traffic will go to the Navi Mumbai airport as the runways at Mumbai Airport are now saturated. BAIL overall passenger traffic is within 10% of Mumbai Airport's total traffic (including international), so I could BIAL become the 2nd largest Airport for Total Passenger volume in India within the next 2 years. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/bengaluru-airport-edges-past-mumbai-in-domestic-passenger-traffic-but-mmr-stays-ahead/articleshow/131373046.cms

130k was traded at the close today but I don’t know who was the buyer.

I noticed that Prem visited the Indian consulate in Toronto a couple days ago, but didn’t think much of it. Now I see that India’s trade minister along with 150 Indian business delegates arrived in Canada for the next few days. Prem is going to be busy. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-goyal-visit-canada-with-150-business-leaders-boost-trade-ties-2026-05-23/

Prem hinted at this again in the latest shareholders letter, when discussing Allied World.

The only thing the US got out of this war is a somewhat weakened Iran militarily, but now Iran understands they have a big stick and can effectively control the strait when needed. We have learned that the loss of Iran’s leadership seems to be easily replaced. The whole reason the US initiated this war was to remove Iran’s enriched uranium but that has not changed and I suspect will not change anytime soon. So the US did not get what they wanted, but Trump will try to make it look like this was a win. The big losers in this war are the Iranian citizens and the Middle East due to the cost to repair and the long term impact on perceived stability. The impact on the global economy will continue for many months and likely into next year. We will need to remember that it takes 2-4 weeks for existing ships in the strait to get to their destination. Many facilities were shut down during the war and will take a week or more to become operational again, so shortages will get worse in the coming weeks. We also need to understand the full impact on damaged production facilities and what the overall impact will be for various resources over the coming months and possibly years. The impact is way beyond just oil.

Grivalia Hospitality received additional approvals this week to develop their new 500M Euro luxury resort, branded under Six Senses. Presidential approval is expected in the coming months. I wonder if Fairfax gets involved with the debt facility for these developments. https://www-mononews-gr.translate.goog/business/me-to-kinitro-tou-eschase-i-ependysi-tis-grivalia-hospitality-stous-petalious?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp As has been announced, the financing of the investment project will be done with 20% equity and 80% debt, since a term sheet with competitive terms has already been signed. According to what the head of Grivalia Hospitality, George Chryssikos, has said, the biggest challenges facing the project are bureaucratic in nature, while since the project was designed, its budget has almost doubled.

BlackBerry stock has now doubled since the end of March.

It looks like Fairfax will continue to buy more UAA at around $5. As of 5/15 they held 24% of the Class A shares. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/915191/000094787126000556/ss6330019_ex9906.htm

30 year yields today have also passed the Covid highs. I wonder which insurance companies will be impacted due to holding long duration bonds.

That could then also suggest a further softening of the insurance market. If long bond yields continue to rise, some insurance companies with long bond duration may need to pull back on their underwriting which would help offset the softening market somewhat.

Fairfax has already agreed to vote in favour of this acquisition.

that is interesting. I didn’t realize the flexibility to this option to purchase.

Is there any reason why you think they could extend the Allied World option for another year?

at the current price and volume, they could get out over the coming weeks.

Thanks. Certainly lower than I thought it could be.

Does anyone have access to the share buybacks in April? I presume most of the buying would have occurred before the earnings blackout.

According to US intelligence, Iran can outlast the blockade for many months and still have a substantial arsenal for attacking. Don't be surprise if these negotiations fail again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/07/cia-intelligence-iran-trump-blockade-missiles/

Here are some further details of how the shares will be acquired. The 51% looks to provide a better credit rating to IIFL Capital. Nirmal Jain will sell some of his share so that Fairfax can reach 51%. https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/fairfax-inject-rs-2-000-crore-into-nirmal-jains-iifl-capital-majority-stake-11778137001798.html Fairfax India Holdings Corp., the investment firm founded by Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, has agreed to inject ₹2,000 crore into IIFL Capital Services Ltd. through a preferential allotment of shares, a transaction that will increase its holding in the company and trigger a mandatory open offer to public shareholders. IIFL Capital’s board approved the issuance of 5.71 crore shares at ₹350 apiece to Fairfax entity FIH Mauritius Investments Ltd, the company said in a filing to the exchanges on Thursday. The price represents a 6% premium to Wednesday’s closing price of ₹331.45 in Mumbai. The allotment will raise FIH Mauritius’ stake in the financial services firm from 27.18% to 38.47%. Fairfax’s combined holding through FIH Mauritius and HWIC Asia Fund will rise to 41.8%. The transaction will trigger a mandatory open offer under takeover regulations set by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. Nirmal Jain, promoter of IIFL Capital, told Mint that through the open offer, the Canadian investment firm’s stake will further increase and promoters will cooperate to help Fairfax achieve a minimum 51% stake over time. Following completion of the transaction and the open offer, Fairfax will be classified as a promoter of the company. Existing co-promoters Jain and R. Venkataraman, who founded the broader India Infoline group in 1995, will retain their roles within the company. "Fairfax is a globally respected investment group with a long-term track record of building and supporting high-quality financial services businesses across markets. Their capital infusion and support will further strengthen our outreach and enable IIFL to access a broader global network of clients, which we believe can meaningfully enhance the company’s revenues over time," Jain told Mint. “We also expect the transaction to support an improvement in our credit rating going forward, subject to necessary regulatory approvals and closures.”