Hoodlum

MW is currently well under water with their current short position. It would not surprise me if they initiated another Smash and Grab next week before the Annual Report is released, in order to limit the losses on their current short position. I don't think they can wait too long with the share price continuing to rise.

Additional confirmation of Go Digit IPO approval. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-regulator-clears-fairfax-backed-digits-ipo-after-delay-letter-shows-2024-03-01/

The RBC Target is in US$ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-tuesdays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-for-feb-20/ RBC Capital Markets analyst Scott Heleniak continues to see shares of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T, FFH.U-T) as “attractive at current levels” following “solid” fourth-quarter results that saw “one of the company’s better underwriting results in recent quarters as well as strong dividend and investment income.” “Reserve releases were above normal in Q4 at a time when some peers are seeing weaker reserving while core margins remained healthy,” he added. “Overall premiums were down albeit this was impacted by a few large non-renewals. Affiliate income was lower than in recent quarters. Share buybacks picked up in Q4 and the company recently raised its annual dividend.” On Thursday, the Toronto-based firm reported net earnings per share of US$52.87, which exceeded Mr. Heleniak’s US$30.70 net estimate. He estimated Fairfax earned US$31.15 per share on an operating basis versus his US$27.70 forecast, citing its combined ratio as the main source of the upside. “Fairfax’s Q4 P&C combined ratio was 89.9 per cent, its best combined ratio all year,” he said. “Reserve development for the quarter (2.7 points) was above the recent run rate with OdysseyRe, Northbridge, and Zenith National each generating double-digit reserve releases. NWP declined 5.5 per cent due to non-renewals at Brit and OdysseyRe. Fairfax is still seeing mid-single-digit insurance rate increases in its insurance book, which we believe is still outpacing loss cost trends. On the Q4 call, the company refuted the Muddy Waters short report and specifically took time to defend their stance on topics such as their investment in Digit Insurance, valuation methods for Level III investments (specifically for Recipe, Exco, and Quest), third party transaction protocol, and IFRS 17. We thought management did a solid job of addressing these topics.” Maintaining his 2024 forecast, Mr. Heleniak raised his 2025 net EPS estimate by US$2 to US$152.00, citing “slightly better” premium and combined ratio assumptions. That prompted him to raise his target for Fairfax shares to US$1,200 from US$1,085, maintaining an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is $1,744.76 (Canadian). “We believe the new price target is warranted considering our constructive underwriting and net investment income outlook for 2024 and given favorable multiples for P&C insurers in the sector,” he said. “Fairfax’s underwriting units continue to deliver impressive results and its investment portfolio has likewise begun delivering improving returns as some of its associate/affiliate holdings are monetized. We would look for these things to continue as Fairfax’s insurance companies are well positioned to capitalize on improved P&C pricing and have a track record of opportunistic growth in such environments. Our thesis is that Fairfax’s long-term track record of double-digit book value growth will continue and the current valuation provides an attractive risk-reward entry point for those willing to back the company’s long-term investment track record. Fairfax has a deep cash position and ample access to capital, which gives it the flexibility to be opportunistic as well as patient.”

With Quess hosting an investor meeting on the 21st to discuss the demerger and the Greek PM visiting India this week along with a business delegation, I wonder if Prem will be in India this week. https://www.ekathimerini.com/opinion/1232110/greeces-gateway-to-asia-indias-gateway-to-europe/ It is also interesting to note that Greece’s most important long-term foreign investor is Indian-Canadian billionaire Prem Watsa, founder and CEO of the Fairfax Financial Holdings. Mr. Watsa often states that “Greece is still by far the best European country to invest in.” With knowledge of both countries, he has been a steady promoter of Greek-Indian business cooperation.

Here are some more details behind the Quess decision. There is an investor meeting on Wednesday where more details may come out. https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/quess-corp-share-price-demerger-three-entities-swap-ratio-revenue-contribution-19077801.htm/amp “Finding a strategic investor will be related to the opportunity to bring with them and not for the sake of the money that they bring because we are sufficiently capitalised, we have Fairfax is an investor, got $90 billion of assets under management, promoters own 57% of the company. So, it's unlikely that we need cash,” Issac said. He added that if there is a principle of additionality and something that investors can bring to the table, then the company would be open to discuss but not otherwise. Based on the demerged entities, Quess Corp will contribute 68% to the consolidated revenue of the company, Digitide will contribute 14%, while the remaining 18% will come from Bluspring. "This proposal should help the company compare on comparable metric with listed players, which might be welcomed by investors," brokerage firm Motilal Oswal said in its note. Quess Corp will hold an investor meet on February 21 for the same.

I know MW says they are still shorting but I wouldn’t trust anything they say. Do we know they didn’t cover over a week ago? Maybe @sleepydragon is able to see that.

Here is the full press release from Quess. https://www.quesscorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/demerger-release-16022024.pdf

With the Digit IPO likely happening this year and now the splitting of Quess into 3 public trading companies, MW’s report is becoming thinner than it already was. https://m.economictimes.com/tech/technology/quess-corp-to-split-into-three-independent-listed-companies/articleshow/107763011.cms The company’s largest shareholder, Fairfax Financial Holdings chairman Prem Watsa said each of the new entities would be a market-leading player with the ability to leverage opportunities that come its way through its renewed focus. “From the time we initially invested in Quess Corp Ltd., in 2013, the company has become one of the largest domestic employers in India and has the potential to develop as a significant business services player on a global scale.” “We are confident that this strategic initiative will benefit all shareholders and ensure that the management team gets the support to achieve the set-out goals from the demerger,” Watsa said.

The Globe provided some of the detailed quotes from today's conference call. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fairfax-rebuts-short-seller-defends-investment-valuations/

Jeffrey Stacey from Stacey Muirhead Capital Management discussed the Muddy Waters report on Fairfax and commented on a few of the transactions in particular . https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/muddy-waters-short-report-on-fairfax-is-highly-misleading-fairfax-shareholder~2865584

That is interesting as Digit had by far the greatest gap between the book value of $3.5b and their estimated value of $1.5b from their initial report. I suspect the report from yesterday that the Go Digit IPO was approved gave them some pause as they didn’t want to give Prem any ammunition in his response in case he was able to comment on the IPO. I hope Prem is able to discuss the IPO and does bring it up during the response to these questions. GO Digit made up a large share of MW’s book shortfall.

As long as we have a hard market and the share price is below intrinsic value, then I would want them to keep the TRS position in place as is. Any available cash would be best spent on expanding the insurance business. The TRS can be closed once the share price is much close to the value of Fairfax. It would be better to buy back shares during a softer market when share price is down from the peak. Also, I don't think that using cash from selling some TRS to buy shares would be the best way to use the funds, as the TRS provides leverage for share price increase which has a ways to go.

That could explain why Fairfax started buying Franco Nevada during Q4.

Nice timing. Here are some additional details. https://www.magzter.com/stories/newspaper/Mint-Mumbai/GO-DIGIT-IPO-GETS-IRDAI-GOAHEAD The company is now waiting for approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for the initial public offering (IPO), the people cited above said on condition of anonymity, adding that they expect approval soon enough. In November, Digit General Insurance, which runs Go Digit, filed an addendum to its IPO documents, stating that Irdai had issued it a showcause notice related to its "non-disclosure of change in the conversion ratio of the compulsorily convertible preference shares, issued to Fairfax." The company is likely to go public in the first half of 2024, one of the two people cited above said.

I do wonder how much longer this will continue with the US debt rising at a faster pace than most other countries.

It would need to be a selective coding error, as the below section from the press release did not have the word “never” removed.

That is not a good look. I have a hard time understanding how that could have been a typo.

The report from National Bank yesterday detailed that the 3 largest investments that would show a gain in market value if marked to market, would offset most of the negative book value that MW found. As long as there is no material variance in overall book value then there is no need to constantly mark to market each individual investments until there is a material change in ownership. The regulatory bodies have agreed with this approach and that is why there have been no issues with how individual investments are reported by Fairfax or any other insurance business that has similar businesses that are not marked to market. Unfortunately, many investors don’t understand how the insurance company investment reporting works and MW took advantage of this to try and make a quick profit, although it looks like MW had poor timing and just broke even based on MW shorting on 1/16 and getting out on Thursday.

i agree. They knew this would be their last opportunity to get out at close to where they started their short.

I wonder if MW did this report so that their shorts could get back to their cost, allowing them to get out approx. breakeven or a small profit before the financial. This was likely a last gasp chance before FFH took off even further from where they initially shorted.

I wonder if the 30 day period of the initial short is typical. Based on the more recent short, they would cover the morning after the financials are released based on the same 30 day interval. it is also interesting that FFH is only $20 below where the most recent short was done. LOL

Bret Horn must be working on his latest update as we speak.

Fairfax response to this report. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/02/08/2826151/0/en/Fairfax-Responds-to-Short-Seller-Report.html

It would be great to see approval for a Go Digit IPO now. A nice valuation would squash this pretty quickly.

I doubt this will be implemented this year, but it is an interesting development. https://www.business-standard.com/finance/insurance/irdai-proposes-changes-in-listing-requirements-of-insurance-companies-124020201707_1.html