Hoodlum

AM Best upgraded Polish Re. It is always interesting to see rating upgrades to some of the smaller insurance subs as it provides some insight we normally don't have visibility to. https://news.ambest.com/NewsContent.aspx?refnum=275297&altsrc=23 //BestWire// - AM Best has upgraded the Financial Strength Rating to A (Excellent) from A- (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings to “a” (Excellent) from “a-” (Excellent) of Polskie Towarzystwo Reasekuracji S.A. (Polish Re) (Poland). The outlook of these Credit Ratings (ratings) is stable. The ratings also reflect the lift Polish Re receives due to the support provided by its ultimate parent, Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (Fairfax) [TSX: FFH], in particular the explicit parental guarantee in place for Polish Re. In addition, Fairfax provides technical support in areas such as reserving, retrocession protection and investment management services. Fairfax’s commitment to Polish Re was demonstrated by its PLN 78 million (USD 18 million) capital injection in 2023. Polish Re’s risk-adjusted capitalisation, as measured by Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR), was at the strongest level at year-end 2025, and it is projected to remain at the same level in the medium term. Further supporting factors are Polish Re’s low dependence on retrocession and conservative investment strategy. Reserve development has been positive since 2024. Prior to 2024, the runoff of motor third-party liability business exhibited material volatility. Polish Re’s adequate operating performance assessment is supported by a five-year (2021-2025) average combined ratio of 95.4% and a five-year (2021-2025) average return-on-equity ratio of 10.7% (both as calculated by AM Best). The company’s underwriting performance improved in 2025, as evidenced by a combined ratio of 92.0% (2024: 97.8%) (as calculated by AM Best). Robust investment results supported an overall net profit of PLN 85.6 million (USD 23.8 million). Prospectively, investment income is expected to be a consistent contributor to the company’s profitability. Polish Re benefits from a diversified underwriting portfolio, with operations spanning approximately 40 markets. The company’s largest markets, as based on gross written premium in 2025, are Poland, Turkey and Israel. Additionally, the company has expanded its agriculture line of business significantly in recent years. AM Best considers Polish Re’s ERM to be developed and appropriate for its risk profile and operational scope.

Actually, after ready the above further it looks like the highest bid with 10-12% premium over current book. The reported book was rs67/share, which suggest a bid between rs73-75/share. So the new rs77/share is not much higher but the structure with IIFL and Digit is much different. This would also help explain why Fairfax increased their equity interest in IIFL last month to 51%. Doesn't Fairfax own only 49% of Digit?

See above for prior post on this. There was an article from May where the government was considering reducing their reserve price of rs94/share by 20%. The new rs77/share bid would line up with that. Adding IIFL and Digit to IDBI bank would transform IDBI to a larger financial company. This would likely be of interest to the Indian government.

If accurate, the ₹77 per share bid is 20% more the the prior highest bid when Fairfax and Emirates NBD submitted their bids a few months ago.

I would be very surprised if this is related to the TRS. Fairfax has always said that this is an investment and they treat it like any other investment. It would not make any sense to close out some of the TRS at this price. from an investment perspective.

Since the NCIB was announced on September 30, I believe Fairfax has bought back 1.5M shares (incl ~500k share in Q4). They still have about 700k share available to buy back from that NCIB (2.2M shares). Fairfax may not need to issue a new NCIB before the existing one expires, unless there is the opportunity for another very large buyback.

The real question is why someone would be selling at this price. I understand the need sometimes for fund rebalancing, but it would seem it is very poor timing to sell now. I thought the same when Fairfax was able to scoop up $2M share at $500US/share in 2021.

Would Fairfax issue any press release for this buyback of 2% of outstanding shares? They have not done this previously, although I believe we have not see a buyback this large since the Substantial Issuer Bid in 2021. I believe Fairfax has now likely bought back 5% of outstanding share since Jan 1st.

@SafetyinNumbers thanks for sharing this. I was about to ask if anyone saw the buyer for this trade. This certainly looks like a Fairfax buyback. We will get confirmation in about 2 weeks.

I could be wrong but when Fairfax was formed and the "fair and friendly" motto was introduced, Fairfax was not acquiring non-insurance companies and taking them private. I don't believe that started to occur until many years later. The "Fair and Friendly" motto was more in reference to the insurance companies they were acquiring, which was very frequent early on.

I am not sure of the accuracy of this as FIH doesn't have the cash to acquire these bonds. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/canadas-fairfax-buys-nearly-1-billion-indian-bonds-rare-move-sources-say-2026-06-23/ MUMBAI, June 23 (Reuters) - Fairfax (FFH.TO), bought Indian government debt worth nearly $1 billion last Friday, according to five sources, in a rare purchase through the local unit of the Canadian investment holding company. The purchases by Fairfax India Holding Corp (FIHu.TO), were made to bring ‌capital into the country ahead of a potential deal to buy stake in government-owned IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS), one of the sources, who is close to Fairfax, said. India's recent decision to exempt foreign investors in government bonds from capital gains tax made the transaction viable, according to this source. Fairfax bought around 60 billion rupees ($633.7 million) of the ⁠6.03% 2029 bond, which was sold at an auction last Friday, at a yield that was 5 basis points lower than market levels, four of the sources, all treasury officials, said. The company also likely bought around 6 billion rupees ⁠of the 6.79% 2027 bond and 26 billion rupees of treasury bills maturing in May and June 2027, the treasury officials added.

I doubt there was much of an uptick in oil getting out of the strait, with the mines still in place. It found it interesting to see oil drop below $80 without much changing in the flow of oil shipments. I think we will see another 2 months of little oil movement, with oil reserves continuing to drop.

Fairfax announced new $300M Notes offering. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-launches-c300-million-senior-notes-offering/

The Kennedy-Wilson take-private transactions was completed. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-completion-of-kennedy-wilson-take-private-transaction/ In addition, an affiliate of the Consortium (the “Borrower”) entered into a Term Loan Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) pursuant to which it obtained a three-year US$1.3 billion term loan facility. In connection with the Credit Agreement, Fairfax agreed to provide a stand-by guarantee pursuant to which Fairfax would agree, upon the occurrence of certain events under the Credit Agreement, to guarantee in favour of the lenders the obligations of the Borrower under the Credit Agreement.

maybe I am not reading it correctly but it sounds like John Peller is exchanging his shares for the “purchaser’s” shares. Wouldn’t that be Fairfax shares? https://ir.andrewpeller.com/news/news-details/2026/Andrew-Peller-Enters-into-Definitive-Agreement-to-be-Acquired-by-Fairfax/default.aspx In connection with the Transaction, John Peller and certain affiliates (collectively, the “Rollover Shareholders”) have entered into an equity rollover agreement with the Purchaser, pursuant to which they have agreed to exchange all 5,246,517 Class A Shares and 1,994,212 Class B Shares beneficially owned and controlled by the Rollover Shareholders (the "Rollover Shares") for shares in the capital of the Purchaser or an affiliate thereof. The Rollover Shares represent approximately 15% of the issued and outstanding Class A Shares and approximately 25% of the issued and outstanding Class B Shares

Sleep Country could be acquiring Sleep Number in the US. Sleep Number Enters Asset Purchase Agreement to Combine with Sleep Country Canada, Creating an Industry Leader in North America Sleep Number Corporation (Nasdaq: SNBR) today announced that it has entered into an agreement to combine with Sleep Country Canada to create a leading North American mattress and bedding company. The transaction will enable the combined company to provide consumers across the United States and Canada a broader assortment of innovative sleep products and services in stores and online. To facilitate the combination, Sleep Number initiated a voluntary Chapter 11 sale process. Through this process, Sleep Number fully expects to continue its day-to-day operations, including serving customers with its newest product, servicing warranties and delivering mattresses in homes. Customers can continue to shop for the company’s products online and in stores nationwide and, following the close of the transaction, Sleep Number plans to continue to assemble its products in the United States. Linda Findley, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sleep Number, said, “For 40 years, Sleep Number has been a leader in sleep innovation, helping millions of customers improve their health and well-being through personalized sleep solutions. While we have made meaningful progress advancing our turnaround efforts and strengthening our operations, our capital structure remains unsustainable. Following a comprehensive review of our strategic options and a robust sale process, we are confident that moving forward with the Sleep Country Canada agreement and this court-supervised sale process will enable us to address our financial constraints. It will also position us to expand our business, helping more people achieve their best sleep both in the United States, and through future international expansion. Findley continued, “As we move through this process, we are focused on serving our customers and supporting our partners. Our team is dedicated to advancing our new product line and continuing to serve current and future customers every day. We thank them, along with our partners and suppliers, for their continued support.” Stewart Schaefer, President and Chief Executive Officer of Sleep Country Canada, said, “We have long admired Sleep Number, its game-changing personalized sleep products and the talented team behind them. Together, we see a tremendous opportunity to build on our complementary strengths and accelerate growth across the United States while introducing Sleep Number's innovative sleep solutions to consumers in Canada and other markets. We are excited about what we can accomplish together and the ways we can help support the wellbeing of our customers through every stage of their sleep wellness journey.” Sleep Number has already been undertaking a review of its store footprint and, in connection with this process, the company will continue this work with the intention of maintaining as many retail locations as possible based on profitability. A&G Real Estate Partners is assisting the company with this effort. In connection with the start of the court-supervised process, Sleep Number has filed a motion with the Court to reject leases of 44 non-operational locations, which were already closed and not serving customers.

Thanks @Viking for sharing this. I just listened to some of the Google video of William Thorndike and will view the rest when I have more time.

yes, are are probably right on that. Hopefully we will hear about the purchase of the Allied World minority interest this month.

BIAL to build state-of-the-art convention and exhibition hub by 2031. Construction is expected to begin next year https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/bengaluru-airport-city-to-get-state-of-the-art-convention-and-exhibition-hub-by-2031-prestige-group-to-invest-rs-1-800-crore-13947228.html Prestige Group and Bengaluru Airport City Limited (BACL) on June 11 unveiled plans for a large integrated destination within Bengaluru Airport City, anchored by a convention and exhibition centre and supported by hospitality, commercial and lifestyle infrastructure. The project, involving an investment of around Rs 1,800 crore by Prestige Group, is expected to commence construction by early 2027, with inauguration targeted for the first quarter of 2031. The development will include a state-of-the-art convention and exhibition centre, luxury hotels under the St Regis and Marriott Marquis brands, premium office space, a performing arts centre, destination retail and curated food and beverage offerings. Hari Marar, MD and CEO of Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL), told reporters that the convention centre would serve as the centrepiece of the Airport City's mixed-use development. "As part of the airport concession agreement, we have nearly 4,000 acres of land, of which around 400 acres have been earmarked for Airport City. The vision is to create a hub for business, culture, hospitality, entertainment and economic activity in north Bengaluru," Marar said. He said Bengaluru has long lacked a world-class convention facility capable of hosting large international events, adding that the new centre could help attract global conferences, exhibitions and corporate gatherings to the city. According to Marar, Airport City is planned as a fully integrated mixed-use district comprising office spaces, convention facilities, retail, dining, entertainment, hospitality, a medical district and academic institutions. "Airport City now has about 110 acres either developed or under development. Major projects include maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities being developed by Air India and IndiGo, a 2-million-square-foot office park, a concert arena, hotels and a planned medical district," he said. Marar said the airport ecosystem has the potential to accommodate 15-18 million square feet of office space and between 4,500 and 5,200 hotel rooms over the long term.

Taking Kennedy-Wilson private was approved by shareholders yesterday and is expected to close next week. Maybe this was what the recent 30yr notes will be used for. https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/KW/8-k-kennedy-wilson-holdings-inc-reports-material-event-28afa4494a8b.html

Russia will be lowering exports of oil during June, due to shortages from Ukraine drone attacks on oil facilities. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Slashes-Oil-Exports-As-Fuel-Shortages-And-Drone-Attacks-Bite.amp.html Russia is preparing to sharply reduce crude oil exports this month as mounting refinery disruptions, fuel shortages, and Ukraine's bombing campaign force Moscow to divert more barrels into the domestic market. Exports from Russia's western ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk are expected to fall to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day in June from 2.5 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary industry and trading data. The decline comes as Russia seeks to increase refinery throughput to address fuel shortages reported in several regions while also contending with lower crude production. In the latest wave of airstrikes targeting Russian oil infrastructure, Ukrainian officials on Monday said forces struck the Grushovaya oil transshipment base near Novorossiysk overnight, one of southern Russia's largest oil and petroleum export hubs, while also targeting oil facilities in the Volgograd region and fuel storage sites in Russian occupied Crimea.

Yes, that would be good although that is assuming share price continues to stay low. This is why it is good to be aggressive with buyback when the opportunity exists as we don't know how long that will last.

I believe we are at 2.5%

Thanks for sharing @giulio. While a little less that I was hoping, hopefully they can do even more this month. I am a bit surprised they only purchased 9,700 shares on 5/29 when the price dropped to $2,150 with volume at 200k shares that day.

I am thinking they can buyback 1% of outstanding at the current stock price, which is a little over 200k shares.