Hoodlum

Fairfax will be out of blackout early next week. A great opportunity for buy backs.

Nasdaq was down another 3% after hours, mainly due to Amazon and Intel reporting. This is just the beginning.

Yes, I am interested in hearing about how they have marked the Go Digit position. Unless they have been able to take advantage of the convertible bonds, then I think this will be marked down a bit based on the IPO price.

It look like IDBI decision is moving along with Fairfax India being the leading contender. https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/banks/fairfax-likely-frontrunner-for-idbi-bank-stake-acquisition-12783559.html#google_vignette

There was no change in Eurobank ownership of Hellenic after public offer expired. It is still at 56%. https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/1245192/eurobanks-hellenic-bank-stake-at-56/

Sleep Country is currently trading at or slightly over the $35/share offer. I doubt Fairfax would need to increase their offer. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/07/29/sleep-country-holders-mull-fairfaxs-offer-as-stock-rises-above-it/ Samir Taghiyev, portfolio manager for Canadian small-cap equities at Mawer Investment Management, said the timing is “not the most ideal,” though he sees the price as being close to fair. Mawer is one of the largest Sleep Country shareholders, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, holding about 5% of the shares as of the end of June. “This is a time where the valuations are depressed due to the high interest rates, but also the demand for mattresses and revenues for Sleep Country are depressed and the margins are depressed,” he said. “So over the long term, when those trends revert or normalize, Fairfax should be getting a very good deal.” Stifel analyst Martin Landry said in a note to clients that Fairfax’s offer seems “slightly opportunistic,” with Sleep Country’s earnings not yet running at a normal level. He expects the deal will be approved by shareholders, even though a higher valuation may be warranted. If that happens, Fairfax will reap the benefit. Still, Sleep Country management highlighted the ability for shareholders to lock in returns by accepting the cash offer now. “We are pleased to have reached an agreement that provides certainty of significant and immediate value to shareholders,” Christine Magee, chair and co-founder of Sleep Country, said in the release announcing the deal.

I hope the SEC names the Hedge Funds that shared their profits with Left (Citron).

I would think this is a specific case as he gave hedge funds advance knowledge before the report was released, and in exchange the Hedge Funds paid him some of their profits. Although the below comments would suggest that any short seller that benefits from publishing a disparaging report is in the SEC's sights now. “Left knew that his recommendations influenced investors’ decisions to buy or sell stock and thereby empowered him to manipulate the price of a Targeted Security,” the indictment said. “By using the Citron Twitter Account to generate ‘catalysts’ — events with the ability to move stock prices — defendant Left profited from his advance knowledge that he was about to trigger such movements in the market.” After using his influence to manipulate a stock’s price, Left “closed his positions to capitalize on the temporary price movement caused by his public statements,” the indictment alleges.

Q2 results will be announced on the 1st. https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-announces-conference-call-2024-07-26/

I see. Although it looks like the report hasn’t changed

thanks, but that report is from May when the target was updated to $1950.

I see that Scotiabank increased their target from $1950 to $2000 cdn yesterday. Does anyone have access to that report as they may have commented on this acquisition.

Likely thin volume before the Q2 results. Also, have we entered the reporting quiet period? If so Fairfax would not be buying now as well.

thanks for posting this. This last comment from Berkley provides some high level guidance. He was also asked as a percentage of net written premiums, what proportion of the firm’s overall book might that size to, to which he replied “less than a couple of percent.”

it looks like Eurobank is moving forward with Hellenic Bank, with or without the remaining shareholders. The market still looks at this as a positive for Eurobank. https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/news/fifteen-days-left-to-decide-on-eurobank-s-offer

It looks like CrowdStrike's CEO was also in leadership at McAfee in 2010 when there was a similar outage. Four months later McAfee was purchased by Intel. It will be interesting to see how CrowdStrike is able to handle this.

It allows shareholders to sleep better at night. The only thing I can think is that this was a rare opportunity to buy a Company providing long term earnings/dividends, albeit in a slow-growth industry. On the face if it, stock buy backs would be a better option over the sort term.

I guess this is where the funds from the Stelco sale will be used. This becomes one of Fairfax's larger holdings at $1.7B cdn. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-fairfax-to-purchase-sleep-country-in-17-billion-deal/

There could be some impact from today's outages, related to Cyber Insurance coverage. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/bi-claims-the-likely-focus-of-insured-losses-from-microsoft-it-outage-say-analysts/ Fairfax is the 3rd largest company providing coverage in the US. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/chubb-remains-the-largest-writer-of-cyber-insurance-am-best/

This article from 10 years ago discusses the logic behind the TSX 60 Index. Much still applies today and may explain why it could be a long while until Fairfax is added. Hopefully this is not behind a paywall for others to see. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/why-does-the-sptsx-60-exclude-some-of-canadas-biggest-stocks/article19057449/

Faron Mining announced new equity investments this morning with Fairfax taking part. https://foranmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Foran-News-Release-Foran-Announces-Strategic-Investments-by-Fairfax-Financial-Agnico-Eagle-and-other-Cornerstone-Investors-Formal-Construction-Decision-for-Phase.pdf $222 million brokered private placement, with participation indications received from various existing long-term shareholders, including Fairfax, underscoring continued strategic support

yes, although it was trading at $50/share at the beginning of this year.

Fairfax will now have some additional cash for Share Buybacks, Hurricane season or other investments (ie India). https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240715698371/en/Cleveland-Cliffs-to-Acquire-Stelco-for-C70-per-Share

@Viking It looks like you will have another Investment exit to do a writeup on. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240715698371/en/Cleveland-Cliffs-to-Acquire-Stelco-for-C70-per-Share

I only become familiar with the ILS instruments over the past few days. Does anyone see any potential issues with how these are used today. I would think this would have less oversight then the Reinsurance businesses and I become wary whenever an investment instrument becomes more in vogue.