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Guiness is not something that you want to take with you on a hike or camping. Every decent lager, IPA or pilsner works much better.

My gut feeling says that none of this ever happened and it's all engagement bait ... March - employee vibe coded a bunch of software tools that are far better Now - they switched back Early indicator that sentiment is beginning to shfit?

I don't think there is double counting in 3 and 6. Bucket 3 is share of profit of associates. This amount is netted out of Bucket 6, change in excess of FV over CV. And that is because CV is adjusted for each holding each quarter (share of profit is added and any dividends received are subtracted). Let's make up numbers of Eurobank. Let's pretend Fairfax reports Eurobank share of profit of associates of $100 million for Q2. Let's pretend there was no dividend paid by Eurobank to Fairfax. If Fairfax's CV for Eurobank at the of Q1 was $2.6B, it will be ~$2.7B at the end of Q2. If Eurobank's share price was flat for the quarter, excess of FV over CV would decrease by $100 million (FV would be flat but CV would increase). If Eurobank's share price increased materially in the quarter, excess of FV over CV would increase by a lot (FV would increase much more than the increase in CV). Which is what actually happened in Q2. Bottom line, excess of FV over CV will include an adjustment for share of profit of associates. There will be no double counting. In my analysis I use change in excess of FV over CV. I don't think there is any double counting. Make sense?

I don't think I am double counting. What I am capturing for each year is: Actual realized investment gains. Actual change in excess of FV over CV for associate and non-insurance market traded consolidated companies. Take the recent Poseidon sale. In Q1, prior to the sale closing, the $837 million gain was sitting in excess of FV over CV. In Q2, when the sale closed, the $837 million will flip into realized investment gains (and gets subtracted from excess of FV over CV). There will be a put and a take. But no double counting. The interesting thing is even with the $837 million 'hit' to excess of FV over CV in Q2, my math says it will still increase from $3.9 billion to about $4.1 billion, or +$200 million. Why? The market value of Eurobank was way up (+$900 million). Yes, Eurobank's CV will increase by share of profit of associates. But Eurobank also paid Fairfax a big dividend - this will reduce CV. I think the Eurobank stuff is reported with a one quarter lag. ----------- Economic versus accounting earnings My goal is to measure Fairfax's actual economic earnings. Not to measure accounting earnings (which materially understates a bunch of things). Now, the big swing will be when Fairfax sells Eurobank. That will result in a massive increase in realized gains and a massive hit to excess of FV over CV. That will spike accounting earnings. But it won't spike economic earnings nearly as much (it will depend on the sale price). Because Eurobank's share price (market value) increased in prior years. I am trying to capture what is actually happening at Fairfax. Not what the accounting earnings are. Make sense?

1/3 of HST and ABNB

On Tilson: performance over time is what matters. People's character changes over the years, or maybe he was having a particularly bad or good day...all that stuff is subjective. What's his long term performance record?

Begun the unwind of our pair trade, proceeds temporarily moving through fixed income. SD

Some of those companies also pay a healthy dividend every month . The straits will reopen, but it is not going to be the US doing it, and the Bab-el-Mandeb is a bargaining chip; the concede the Bab-el-Mandeb (Red Sea exit) in return for an open SOH, that supports all. Today's big drop has a lot of manipulation behind it. SD

I think there is double counting, but it is not 5 and 6, it is 3 and 6. Fairfax's proportion of associates' and consolidated companies' earnings is already fully counted as earnings. Much of those earnings are retained, and they increase the value of the holdings. It is true that accounting rules prevent Fairfax from declaring all that extra book value, so book value is understated, but the earnings are all there. Since much of the increased of fair value over carrying value is from earnings that we have already counted, adding in the gain in FV over CV counts those earnings a second time. IMHO.

SiN knows this but just to avoid having other people going down the wrong track like I started to, the target share price is C$3300 to $3450, wheread the $185 eps is surely in USD, so the ratio is not 18-19, it's 13. Sounds reasonable, if unlikely (i.e. it is a 39% increase from today's price.)

Meh I dunno. Last week these semiconductor funboys released huge numbers (e.g. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/samsung-sk-hynix-prepare-major-185441252.html) and even had that AI summit in San Fran with the South Korean president and Jansen Huang. It's like they're pulling out the big guns but it stinks of desperation - they need to borrow capital and the stocks already having cracked 30-40% isn't helping things and it's really not going to help if things sell off another 20% from here. In the midst of all this, Bank of Korea raises 25 basis points! I mean yea it's only Bank of Korea but still Nasdaq action indicate weakness. Today NQ sold off below 28000 and just 2 months ago, this would have bounced back 1500 points easy. Now it can barely bounce 200 points? I mean come on I thought about closing the shorts and taking pretty good profits this morning but I'm gonna ride these bad boys. I fully expect these funboys to get desperate and pull out even more stops, in which case the squeeze could become epic. But hey, if you're ready to put it on da line, you should leave da casino....

Is there some way to frame an IPO of Fannie/Freddie as victory in Iran/SoH? Perhaps then they'll finally get done I know according to Trump we've already won, and according to DJT an IPO is imminent ....for awhile....but two wrongs make a right so maybe we can tie a bow on both of these at the same time

With reference to engine 5 and 6 of the investment side of the income. Realized gains and excess FV over CV. Wouldn't there be double counting. Because eventually those excess FVs will flow through into the realized gains. I see engine 6 as more or a 5 in process.

@Hoodlum, it is difficult to "value" Fairfax's equity portfolio. What do you include? Market value/price? Or carrying value/prices? How should FFH-total return swaps be captured in the analysis? Bottom line, it is complicated. I normally use my Excel spreadsheet because it is easy and consistent - but this overstates the $ value of individual holdings and the total (it captures all market traded holdings at market value, including FFH-TRS). Bottom line, my numbers materially understate Fairfax's actual performance (which should be measured using carry value for associate and non-insurance holdings). In terms of where equities go (% of total investments), the key will be what Fairfax does with capital allocation. In recent years, Fairfax's primary use of capital has been share buybacks (shrinking their capital base). They have also spend a significant amount in recent years taking out their insurance partners - and they still have two large stakes to go: Allied World and Odyssey (growing insurance earnings). I don't think Fairfax has any desire to become a big conglomerate like Berkshire Hathaway. Bottom line, it will be interesting to see where the fixed income/equities split goes in the coming years.

That's the beauty of IPCO. Anything over $60 oil and we'll do well here.

March 2027 NFLX LEAP calls. Nibbled on some LQDA common stock.

NBF is at $60 for the quarter and $185 for the year.

I agree (and my portfolio benefits immensely on days like today where oil is down (with semis...), but it's about probabilities and price/value, and what I find interesting is that you can buy some cheap portfolio protection currently, as some of these E&P companies hardly price in anything more than $70 USD oil (and shale needs something like ~63-65$ to be economic, which seems like a reasonable assumptions for a long term floor, and one which has been moving higher). So you make a lot of money every day oil is at $80 USD, a ton of money if we get a period >$100 USD (while others parts of the portfolio might get smacked) and do okay even if oil goes down to $65. Is IPCO my best idea currently? I'm not really sure, but it gives my portfolio something beneficial. (and despite oil being ~flat since I first bought in '22, it's a 3x)

Given that the US shares of SK Hynix still trade at a large premium to the KRX-traded primary listing (and an even bigger discount to that holdco that owns 20% of SKHY) - it is probably a better short than Micron. Micron is a good long here, believe it or not. Head & Shoulders top about to blow up in a bunch of traders faces. don't be one of them!

I just got lucky and I didn't close my short position yet so who knows how this will play out I do think SKHY is a better short than Micron

Great timing. Thanks for this idea.

What makes you think 80% of MAGA can even read? Ask their leader what was the last book he read or look how MAGA followers tend to believe the outragous lies he spouts on a daily basis.

This takes me way back to HS. My first experience with beer (a terrible one). Me and a buddy went on a backpacking trip over fall break in the New River Gorge WV and nabbed some Guinness Extra Stout from his Dads cellar thinking it would be awesome. Did some 30 mile trail and stopped about half way to camp. "Nothing like a beer after a long hike!" Yuck! Can still remember the awful taste of warm Extra Stout to someone without a taste for beer. Ended up using it to cook instead lol

Do perpetuals for Doge and Shiba Inu count? Because those exist.

Thanks @Viking for this detailed writeup. When we look at the Associate and Consolidated $ amounts, are we seeing the value on the book for these? If so, I wonder how FV would impact the percentage breakdown of these when compared with the Marked to Market bucket. The FV amount would also increase the total equities amount in comparison to Fixed Income. I wonder if the insurance regulators look at FV of equities when determining the percentage of high quality fixed incomed that is needed when investing. I could see FV of equities growing to over 50% of the Investment portfolio with Fairfax over time.