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I'm having a Weller 12 yr now. Really good IMO. Red wine: I just had Revana Beckstoffer 2021 and a 2022 Napa Valley Cab. Can buy at Alexana Winery's web page. It's fantastic, but expensive.

Yes thanks for clarifying. I missed that you were also calculating the puts and takes, perhaps as I saw the FV over CV go up despite a large sell down in Poseidon. It's definitely important to look at economic earnings with Fairfax particularly because of their 360 style of investing as well as patient capital hallmark. The irony is despite what you try to do, you're probably still going to undercount it. On the other hand, even though they've had a hot steak of late, there are probably going to have some failed investments in the future which may or may not be immediately marked down (but thankfully we usually get a pretty frank update on them in the annual letter). A minor correction, technically BIAL is a Fairfax India investment. On the fixed income to equity size aspect. I think as long as the share price keeps giving them this opportunity, they will keep chewing up excess cash to buyback and keeping the investment leverage just as it stands unless an extraordinary opportunity come up. Otherwise, if their equity keeps growing at 15-20% PA. Their float could never keep up, barring a huge insurance acquisition, and I think they've kind of communicated they don't plan to do that. I expect them to be opportunistic and patient growing their insurance underwriting. Flat to 3% in soft markets and 8-10% in hard markets averaging out maybe 5% over a cycle. So when you look at 5% v 15% over the longer term, the investment leverage drops quite quickly. I think management is keenly aware of this and manage their capital allocation with this in mind.

Well I was 15 took what I could get

Agreed 100% - but that doesn't lend the speaker any credibility. Like Musk here: he betrays himself when he refuses to acknowledge criticism of the politicians he backs in Europe ("what you're saying is total fiction"). It shows he is not a serious, credible person with reasonable ideas. That doesn't make him useless, he just has to be framed properly as a sounding board or reflection, rather than a political leader. Kind of like the crazy guy on the corner with big signs that the holocaust never happened.

C'mon man--Guinness bottles and not cans? To be fair, I'm over the fancy craft beers/IPAs/rich stouts and love me some easy drinking pilsners or hefeweizens these days. They go better with meals too. I've been surprised at how simple and great Miller High Life or Coors Banquets can be--especially on a summer day

“how much earnings did Fairfax get in 2026?” Are you calculating economic or accounting earnings? I am trying to calculate all sources of economic earnings. And an economic return. My estimate is conservative because it does not capture all the different ways that economic is being created - like the change in value of non-insurance non-market traded consolidated holdings (like Sleep Country, BIAL etc). Or the value creation that is happening at insurance holdings like Ki.

This does make sense but I think the adjustment for retained earnings only accounts for part of the difference. Staying with your Eurobank example, say that Fairfax's share of Eurobank was carried at $2b last year, with a market value of $3b based on 2025 earnings of $300m, for a P/E of 10, so FV-CV was $1b. Now earnings go from $300m to $400m in 2026, so if there is no dividend. Based on the accounting rules you summarized above, Fairfax's CV would go to $2.4. If P/E stays at 10, market value would go to $4b, so FV-CV= $1.6b, an increase of $600m. So the question is, from Eurobank, how much earnings did Fairfax get in 2026? I would say it is just the $400m (item 3 in your list). But are you saying you want to ALSO give them another $600m, from item 6 (increase in FV-CV)?

Guiness is not something that you want to take with you on a hike or camping. Every decent lager, IPA or pilsner works much better.

My gut feeling says that none of this ever happened and it's all engagement bait ... March - employee vibe coded a bunch of software tools that are far better Now - they switched back Early indicator that sentiment is beginning to shfit?

I don't think there is double counting in 3 and 6. Bucket 3 is share of profit of associates. This amount is netted out of Bucket 6, change in excess of FV over CV. And that is because CV is adjusted for each holding each quarter (share of profit is added and any dividends received are subtracted). Let's make up numbers of Eurobank. Let's pretend Fairfax reports Eurobank share of profit of associates of $100 million for Q2. Let's pretend there was no dividend paid by Eurobank to Fairfax. If Fairfax's CV for Eurobank at the of Q1 was $2.6B, it will be ~$2.7B at the end of Q2. If Eurobank's share price was flat for the quarter, excess of FV over CV would decrease by $100 million (FV would be flat but CV would increase). If Eurobank's share price increased materially in the quarter, excess of FV over CV would increase by a lot (FV would increase much more than the increase in CV). Which is what actually happened in Q2. Bottom line, excess of FV over CV will include two adjustments every quarter: share price and share of profit of associates. So I don't think there will be no double counting. In my analysis I use change in excess of FV over CV. I don't think there is any double counting. Make sense?

I don't think I am double counting. What I am capturing for each year is: Actual realized investment gains. Actual change in excess of FV over CV for associate and non-insurance market traded consolidated companies. Take the recent Poseidon sale. In Q1, prior to the sale closing, the $837 million gain was sitting in excess of FV over CV. In Q2, when the sale closed, the $837 million will flip into realized investment gains (and gets subtracted from excess of FV over CV). There will be a put and a take. But no double counting. The interesting thing is even with the $837 million 'hit' to excess of FV over CV in Q2, my math says it will still increase from $3.9 billion to about $4.1 billion, or +$200 million. Why? The market value of Eurobank was way up (+$900 million). Yes, Eurobank's CV will increase by share of profit of associates. But Eurobank also paid Fairfax a big dividend - this will reduce CV. I think the Eurobank stuff is reported with a one quarter lag. ----------- Economic versus accounting earnings My goal is to measure Fairfax's actual economic earnings. Not to measure accounting earnings (which materially understates a bunch of things). Now, the big swing will be when Fairfax sells Eurobank. That will result in a massive increase in realized gains and a massive hit to excess of FV over CV. That will spike accounting earnings. But it won't spike economic earnings nearly as much (it will depend on the sale price). Because Eurobank's share price (market value) increased in prior years. I am trying to capture what is actually happening at Fairfax. Not what the accounting earnings are. Make sense?

1/3 of HST and ABNB

On Tilson: performance over time is what matters. People's character changes over the years, or maybe he was having a particularly bad or good day...all that stuff is subjective. What's his long term performance record?

Begun the unwind of our pair trade, proceeds temporarily moving through fixed income. SD

Some of those companies also pay a healthy dividend every month . The straits will reopen, but it is not going to be the US doing it, and the Bab-el-Mandeb is a bargaining chip; the concede the Bab-el-Mandeb (Red Sea exit) in return for an open SOH, that supports all. Today's big drop has a lot of manipulation behind it. SD

I think there is double counting, but it is not 5 and 6, it is 3 and 6. Fairfax's proportion of associates' and consolidated companies' earnings is already fully counted as earnings. Much of those earnings are retained, and they increase the value of the holdings. It is true that accounting rules prevent Fairfax from declaring all that extra book value, so book value is understated, but the earnings are all there. Since much of the increased of fair value over carrying value is from earnings that we have already counted, adding in the gain in FV over CV counts those earnings a second time. IMHO.

SiN knows this but just to avoid having other people going down the wrong track like I started to, the target share price is C$3300 to $3450, wheread the $185 eps is surely in USD, so the ratio is not 18-19, it's 13. Sounds reasonable, if unlikely (i.e. it is a 39% increase from today's price.)

Meh I dunno. Last week these semiconductor funboys released huge numbers (e.g. https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/samsung-sk-hynix-prepare-major-185441252.html) and even had that AI summit in San Fran with the South Korean president and Jansen Huang. It's like they're pulling out the big guns but it stinks of desperation - they need to borrow capital and the stocks already having cracked 30-40% isn't helping things and it's really not going to help if things sell off another 20% from here. In the midst of all this, Bank of Korea raises 25 basis points! I mean yea it's only Bank of Korea but still Nasdaq action indicate weakness. Today NQ sold off below 28000 and just 2 months ago, this would have bounced back 1500 points easy. Now it can barely bounce 200 points? I mean come on I thought about closing the shorts and taking pretty good profits this morning but I'm gonna ride these bad boys. I fully expect these funboys to get desperate and pull out even more stops, in which case the squeeze could become epic. But hey, if you're ready to put it on da line, you should leave da casino....

Is there some way to frame an IPO of Fannie/Freddie as victory in Iran/SoH? Perhaps then they'll finally get done I know according to Trump we've already won, and according to DJT an IPO is imminent ....for awhile....but two wrongs make a right so maybe we can tie a bow on both of these at the same time

With reference to engine 5 and 6 of the investment side of the income. Realized gains and excess FV over CV. Wouldn't there be double counting. Because eventually those excess FVs will flow through into the realized gains. I see engine 6 as more or a 5 in process.

@Hoodlum, it is difficult to "value" Fairfax's equity portfolio. What do you include? Market value/price? Or carrying value/prices? How should FFH-total return swaps be captured in the analysis? Bottom line, it is complicated. I normally use my Excel spreadsheet because it is easy and consistent - but this overstates the $ value of individual holdings and the total (it captures all market traded holdings at market value, including FFH-TRS). Bottom line, my numbers materially understate Fairfax's actual performance (which should be measured using carry value for associate and non-insurance holdings). In terms of where equities go (% of total investments), the key will be what Fairfax does with capital allocation. In recent years, Fairfax's primary use of capital has been share buybacks (shrinking their capital base). They have also spend a significant amount in recent years taking out their insurance partners - and they still have two large stakes to go: Allied World and Odyssey (growing insurance earnings). I don't think Fairfax has any desire to become a big conglomerate like Berkshire Hathaway. Bottom line, it will be interesting to see where the fixed income/equities split goes in the coming years.

That's the beauty of IPCO. Anything over $60 oil and we'll do well here.

March 2027 NFLX LEAP calls. Nibbled on some LQDA common stock.

NBF is at $60 for the quarter and $185 for the year.

I agree (and my portfolio benefits immensely on days like today where oil is down (with semis...), but it's about probabilities and price/value, and what I find interesting is that you can buy some cheap portfolio protection currently, as some of these E&P companies hardly price in anything more than $70 USD oil (and shale needs something like ~63-65$ to be economic, which seems like a reasonable assumptions for a long term floor, and one which has been moving higher). So you make a lot of money every day oil is at $80 USD, a ton of money if we get a period >$100 USD (while others parts of the portfolio might get smacked) and do okay even if oil goes down to $65. Is IPCO my best idea currently? I'm not really sure, but it gives my portfolio something beneficial. (and despite oil being ~flat since I first bought in '22, it's a 3x)