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Lollapalooza

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  1. I wish I knew what people would trust more - I'd be loading up the trunk with that single thing right now. Ultimately I believe people will always trust real, tangible, assets that have their own value independent of which currency they transact. Be it real estate, commodities, a powerful brand, etc. Military superiority gave USD the reserve status that it enjoys today backed by a booming economy and fed by strong technological advancements. Had it lost the II WW we might be discussing the fall of the Deutsche Mark now. Let's be clear, after 1945 the entire world acknowledged US' as the leading economy, like unquestionably. In part because it came out relatively intact out of the war, whereas UK, Germany, France, Japan, Russia had suffered more damage. (Yes yes, USSR and Japan later came as contenders but they were never real competition across all quadrants). So naturally USD became the worlds reserve currency. First backed by gold and lent to its allies and later converted to fiat. Everyone was transacting with dollars anyways and their debts ought to be paid in USD as well (btw much like China is doing today with emerging markets like Pakistan, Africa etc.) Today I don't think military is the key protecting the dollar reserve status. Call it the law of diminishing returns where nuclear access leveled the plain field. I do think decades of seeing USD as a safe store-hold of wealth, a trustable mean of transaction, play a bigger role in institutions and individuals choices. Just like Microsoft owns that little space in your brain that pushes you to accept their newest pricier offer rather than switch to a different provider even if it the latter is marginally better. So do people tend to buy a weaker, monetizable dollar - that's what I meant with inertia and 'boiling frog' reaction speeds. That holds until it doesn't. If a new provider comes up with a better proposal than Microsoft or if it tries to increase the prices too fast, there's only so much 'laziness' that would prevent institutions from re-arranging their systems and processes and ultimately move to the other offer. Question is: is USD pushing the boundaries of 'inertia' too hard too fast? My guess is Yes. Is there a better provider somewhere? My bet is Yes (China). Will the DCEP be the final nail in the coffin that reduces the adaptation hurdle so much that it will make it super easy for institutions to switch away from a debasing dollar? - who knows. I like those odds but I don't like how that future looks like. I'd rather have US ruling the world than accept a new non-western leader for which my values and culture are more distant from. But this isn't about what i'd like, it's about how do I protect myself and the ones I care about from a harsh, and in my view inevitable, reality.
  2. I'm all for preserving anonymity here but i assure you i'm not Giselle nor her husband Nor would I have agreed with that statement. Why would EUR be better than USD? EU is a fragmented economy, only partially integrated, running at two very different speeds (north vs. south); "excessively" multi-diverse in all aspects: culturally, linguistically, behaviorally; with alarming demographics; high levels of burocracy coupled with low entrepreneurial spirit (partially due to broad social policies of its member states).
  3. Simply because it doesn't work out. Today USD is benefiting from a now false reality that it is a safe store of value/wealth. Not many households are adding up the dots and realizing that their pensions will be way less valuable down the road, nor any CEO concerned to be challenged for holding to dollar denominated cash balances. This is pure inertia in people's thinking mixed with 'boiling frog' reaction speeds. At some point people in US and more importantly, Worldwide, will start to loose trust in the USD and cease to want to hold it. I'm sure I'm going against the consensus here but I'd rather own Chinese RMB than USD, today and for the next decade(s) to come. US is not the only country that experienced an hegemony position or ran an empire. Just dig a bit in the history and you will find that past empires ran into the same issue of over expanding and monetizing their debt. It all worked for a few years until it doesn't. Until fairly recent USD had significant demand from more 'controversial countries' like Russia, Iran, China - which were hedging from the possibility that they get deprived from accessing it. Today that's no longer the case. They already have considerable reserves so the demand for future USD will need to come from within US itself. In my view, that's when the credibility of the a currency is at stake. When 'international entities' stop to be interested to store more of your currency.
  4. I read lots of envy in this thread. I guess success does attract that a lot... if you dont give him credit or you're genuinely not interested in what he says and "his latest gimmicks" why do you waste 1h of your time watching? Unlike you and me, he steps out of anonymity and does not shy away from sharing his ideas and latest learnings with others. I find it disrespectful specially when you know he used to come to this forum. Personally I appreciate his openness and I feel I've shortened much of my learning curve by listening to him and others that arent afraid to come out in public with some of their 'contrarian' philosophies.
  5. Hi, Does anyone know of a library that a non-US resident can register and get access to Value line? Thanks
  6. Appreciate this discussion. I'm struggling to see a scenario where we wont see strong inflation picking up soon... It's obvious that we have seen strong deflationary forces pushing prices down - e.g. tech and ecommerce driving prices down vs. physical retail, outsourcing supply chains to low cost countries, weak commodities cycle, oil excess capacity, etc. Now lets list 'what's possibly coming': - desire to bring back previously outsourced supply chains even by sacrificing lower production input costs; - less openness to global trade; - ecommerce widely adopted with majority of its lower pricing already in effect; - unprecedented money printing; - likely commodity supercycle incoming; - death of US shale oil, possible future under supply as economy opens up? I really struggle to reconcile the above with the "inflation is dead" rhetoric.
  7. Sorry to disappoint but you're not alone in that category. In the current market those earnings are great but certainly not so rare. Show a similar performance (or even much lower) for a period of 3 to 5 years and you'll get attention. Good luck!
  8. You guys must be feeling pretty good wearing those big boy's pants. Surely you got to jump on the Teslas and Airbnbs of today's market and made 1000% in 1yr. Reading so much criticism from those enjoying anonymity, the keyboard warriors, is just sad to watch. If you are going to criticize someone's performance at least have the decency to share yours as well.
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