Lollapalooza

yes, but good luck scaling it to high volume manufacturing. That and other forms of non-litho technology is what could eventually disrupt ASML's business in my view. I would see that as a bigger threat than someone being able to catchup and replicate ASML monopoly on EUV. That said, i also believe they wont flex their pricing power as this industry is very interdependent.

This is not entirely correct. ASML doesnt make most of their money on lower spec machines where is competition - actually the opposite, and this is where Cannon/Nikkon make a dent on ASML's business. Actually their most profitable business line on the scanner side is its LowNA EUV machines and DUV immersion. That said, they sell a bunch of upgrade packages and improvements for customer's installed base, which come with very healthy margins. Naturally DUV (immersion & dry) has a much bigger installed base. Agree that "raising prices by 50%" is totally irrealistic and not a viable/constructive approach for an industry that is so interdependent (sometimes promiscuous); and where 61% of its revenue comes just from a handful of customers.

In Australia, KPG seems to have approximately 20% of the McDonald's franchisor market, and it accounts for nearly 10% revenue of their US firms. Transcript Kelly Partners Group Holdings FY2025 Full Year Results Presentation "We now have more than 8% of McDonald's franchised stores as clients in our US firms. In fact, we've got more McDonald's stores than exist in Australia, which is really exciting. We're now at a core size in the US where the business has its own flywheel and can start to grow on itself and compound we're larger in the US today than we were when we IPOed the business in 2017. "There's still a lot left in what we're doing. Tristan's asked a question about other firms with a strong base of quick service restaurants hold any priority for acquisitions? No, we're very focused on the McDonald's piece. We have about 20% of the franchisor market in Australia, nearly 10% here. Speaker 1 (00:47:03): We have genuine insight and expertise and there's enough in 120 countries with that system to stay very focused. We bought into the kudos network. It has 60 firms in 48 countries and it doesn't take it greatly to imagine that we might get many of those firms to join us. The first one has joined us on a 51 49 basis in Ireland and that we will get after the McDonald's business in each of those markets as well."

Thanks. I agree with the attractiveness of the waste management business. My concern / reticence has to do with GFL management team reputation.

can you elaborate on your thesis? I own SES which recently got a takeover offer from GFL. I've done no due dilligence so far but given the last comments on GFL's threat of this comments regarding Management I'm leaning to just sell for cash.

$KPG - forced seller. CEO hit with margin call on $64m in pledged shares (link). $Lufax - convertible bond exercise period between April 30th till Oct 8th at 4.64$/ADR for 24% shares outstanding.

what makes you like Wolters Kluwer? I see their business under threat

Any thoughts on this? Seems quite bullish for community / regional banks

Bag holding capri since the failed merger. Added significantly yesterday on the acquisition news expecting a pop. Afterall, 1.3bn$ for a barely profitable brand (under capri mgt) on a 1.7bn$ marketcap should make some waves, non? Guess not... In fairness the main brand (Michael Kors) is facing significantly head winds from the tariffs - but in time, this too shall pass (imo). Dont mind to be a bagger for a bit longer and not planning to sell before 25-30$s.

Regarding options trading i prefer to keep it simple and not be too fancy on these options strategies. I sell puts on stocks that "I dont mind holding" and once assigned sell calls OTM to get out. This doesnt work well with compounders / stocks that i really want to hold, nor with stocks that i actually dislike, despite optically cheap. So far i find cyclicals an excellent target for this strategy. IV tends to be high thus fat premiums and you just have to wait out for the cycle to turn.

Funny. Pretty sure he sees those odds in reverse. Retail investors are way nimblers and have the world at their disposal - he just has a couple of elephants

I wish I knew what people would trust more - I'd be loading up the trunk with that single thing right now. Ultimately I believe people will always trust real, tangible, assets that have their own value independent of which currency they transact. Be it real estate, commodities, a powerful brand, etc. Military superiority gave USD the reserve status that it enjoys today backed by a booming economy and fed by strong technological advancements. Had it lost the II WW we might be discussing the fall of the Deutsche Mark now. Let's be clear, after 1945 the entire world acknowledged US' as the leading economy, like unquestionably. In part because it came out relatively intact out of the war, whereas UK, Germany, France, Japan, Russia had suffered more damage. (Yes yes, USSR and Japan later came as contenders but they were never real competition across all quadrants). So naturally USD became the worlds reserve currency. First backed by gold and lent to its allies and later converted to fiat. Everyone was transacting with dollars anyways and their debts ought to be paid in USD as well (btw much like China is doing today with emerging markets like Pakistan, Africa etc.) Today I don't think military is the key protecting the dollar reserve status. Call it the law of diminishing returns where nuclear access leveled the plain field. I do think decades of seeing USD as a safe store-hold of wealth, a trustable mean of transaction, play a bigger role in institutions and individuals choices. Just like Microsoft owns that little space in your brain that pushes you to accept their newest pricier offer rather than switch to a different provider even if it the latter is marginally better. So do people tend to buy a weaker, monetizable dollar - that's what I meant with inertia and 'boiling frog' reaction speeds. That holds until it doesn't. If a new provider comes up with a better proposal than Microsoft or if it tries to increase the prices too fast, there's only so much 'laziness' that would prevent institutions from re-arranging their systems and processes and ultimately move to the other offer. Question is: is USD pushing the boundaries of 'inertia' too hard too fast? My guess is Yes. Is there a better provider somewhere? My bet is Yes (China). Will the DCEP be the final nail in the coffin that reduces the adaptation hurdle so much that it will make it super easy for institutions to switch away from a debasing dollar? - who knows. I like those odds but I don't like how that future looks like. I'd rather have US ruling the world than accept a new non-western leader for which my values and culture are more distant from. But this isn't about what i'd like, it's about how do I protect myself and the ones I care about from a harsh, and in my view inevitable, reality.

I'm all for preserving anonymity here but i assure you i'm not Giselle nor her husband Nor would I have agreed with that statement. Why would EUR be better than USD? EU is a fragmented economy, only partially integrated, running at two very different speeds (north vs. south); "excessively" multi-diverse in all aspects: culturally, linguistically, behaviorally; with alarming demographics; high levels of burocracy coupled with low entrepreneurial spirit (partially due to broad social policies of its member states).

Simply because it doesn't work out. Today USD is benefiting from a now false reality that it is a safe store of value/wealth. Not many households are adding up the dots and realizing that their pensions will be way less valuable down the road, nor any CEO concerned to be challenged for holding to dollar denominated cash balances. This is pure inertia in people's thinking mixed with 'boiling frog' reaction speeds. At some point people in US and more importantly, Worldwide, will start to loose trust in the USD and cease to want to hold it. I'm sure I'm going against the consensus here but I'd rather own Chinese RMB than USD, today and for the next decade(s) to come. US is not the only country that experienced an hegemony position or ran an empire. Just dig a bit in the history and you will find that past empires ran into the same issue of over expanding and monetizing their debt. It all worked for a few years until it doesn't. Until fairly recent USD had significant demand from more 'controversial countries' like Russia, Iran, China - which were hedging from the possibility that they get deprived from accessing it. Today that's no longer the case. They already have considerable reserves so the demand for future USD will need to come from within US itself. In my view, that's when the credibility of the a currency is at stake. When 'international entities' stop to be interested to store more of your currency.

I read lots of envy in this thread. I guess success does attract that a lot... if you dont give him credit or you're genuinely not interested in what he says and "his latest gimmicks" why do you waste 1h of your time watching? Unlike you and me, he steps out of anonymity and does not shy away from sharing his ideas and latest learnings with others. I find it disrespectful specially when you know he used to come to this forum. Personally I appreciate his openness and I feel I've shortened much of my learning curve by listening to him and others that arent afraid to come out in public with some of their 'contrarian' philosophies.